The Swine Flu thing...

[UnderwaterOffice]

2. I ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY would not bring my 7 month pregnant wife on a plane swine flu or not. Ask your OB/GYN, I am sure that they will agree that it is not worth the risk of even flying at this stage in the pregnancy. My wife delivered at 7.5 months, she was healthy and in a modern american hospital. I work in hospitals everyday in cancer centers, Cozumels medical infrastructure is not bad, but it is not near the abilities of many areas in the US.

Yes, we have talked to our doctor about flying. In fact the doctor said "it is perfectly fine to fly to Cozumel" while pregnant up until the final 30 days of pregnancy. Yes, the pregnancy adds a new layer to it, but it certainly still applies to the argument that some are attempting to make advocating not canceling trips to the Yucatan. But I guess the most responsible thing would be to lock ourselves in the house and tape the doors, but then with that mentality we would have never become divers in the first place.

We still have plenty of time to redirect, postpone, cancel or continue our vacation plans. At this point it will likely be redirected.

By the way, they actually mention Cancun and the tourist industry in the latest WHO hearing. The answer basically says that it is possible that cases just may have not been confirmed in the area yet, but there is not dispute that there are currently no cases reported on the peninsula.
WHO | Swine influenza virtual press briefings

 

[UnderwaterOffice]

If left untreated, any case of the flu can turn to pneumonia. With our present hightened awareness of this flu, and getting immediate treatement in the form of tamiflu, it would be far less likely to do so.

Yes doctors in the US prescribe antibiotics to people with the sniffles on a regular basis even though they know damn well it won't help with the patients viral infection. It happens all the time. Doctors like to maintain their image as a savior and they want to keep their client base, so they are not crazy about telling patients that they can't do anything for them and that they'll get better in a week or ten days, once their own immune systems gets it under control. So instead they write out a prescription that might as well be a placebo. This fact is reported over and over again. the CDC is very concerned about it because our current stock of antibiotics aren't effective against more bacterial infections every year.

My point is that if I have access to tamiflu and I come down with the start of flu symptoms, I'm going to take it right away and do all the other things one does to try and get over the flu like getting rest and drinking lots of liquids. I would also try and cut my trip short to get back to the US asap, just in case it gets worse.

In other words, I'm not changing my plans to go to Cozumel in July unless it gets a whole lot worse and Cozumel looks like it has a lot more cases than where I already live. I think this is a reasonable plan with the appropriate precautions taken. What's wrong with that?

Nothing is wrong with that at all.. It seems we are just trying to justify our own stance or to find a stance. What you say here seems reasonable.

 

[1KWIK_69]

Nothing is wrong with that at all.. It seems we are just trying to justify our own stance or to find a stance. What you say here seems reasonable.

I think if I were in your shoes, I'd be staying home because no vacation is worth the risk with a pregnant wife. Hope you find something fun and safe to do!

 

[DandyDon]

It seems common sense to worry about it if you care about what type of health care you would end up with if the bug mutates for the worse and your get it. Unless, I guess, if you think there are no relative differences in the health care between the two locations. Which is something I asked about earlier in the thread and got essentially no response.

I skipped that here earlier as I do not have direct experience with the medical facilities there, but no - Cozumel & PDC capabilities do not seem to be up with what you have in Austin. Cancun might be up there, if they're not swamped at the time you might need them. Whatever risks actually materialize into reality there, the US system is currently in better shape to deal with problems.

WHO just released "update 5".
WHO | Swine influenza - update 5

Confirmed:
148 cases / 8 deaths

Yeah, it was only a matter of time - and not much expect. Final upgrade to top level 6 is not far off.

Last I heard, it doesn't much matter what health care you have when exposed to a flu virus. Antibiotics won't touch it but will help with secondary infections.

Truth be told, modern medicine has NEVER cured a virus. We have drugs that can help slow their spread or replication, but as of now the only cure for a virus in humans is the human immune system. If I bring Tamiflu with me, I've already covered everything an American doctor can do for me anyway. In other words, I doubt I'll have much better odds in the hands of an American doctor than a Mexican one if I catch this flu.

There's a serious lack of knowledge among the general public about how medicine works. Immunizations don't cure anything. They only ramp up our own immune systems by simulating a living virus exposure so it will be better equiped to fight it off if we're actually exposed. Getting immunized after exposure and symptoms have begun is useless. People going to the doctor every time they have the sniffles when there isn't a serious health threat as there is now, has only made things worse because doctors LOVE to prescribe antibiotics to people they know it won't help. Because of this, new breeds of bacteria that are resistant to our current batch of antibiotics are born.

To sum it all up, Mexico has all the same antibiotics available as America and if I get sick with the flu and get a secondary "Bacterial" infection, a Mexican doctor can give me antibiotics. If I get h1n1 in Mexico and I already have tamiflu that I brought with me, between that and antibiotics I can get from a Mexican doctor, I've covered all the bases. Add bed rest, lots of fluids, and maybe some chicken soup and I'm as well off as I would be here.....

Again, if a lot of little red pins show up in Cozumel on that google swine flu map and there still are none in Kansas City, then I'll re evaluate my plans.....

Oh, you don't need a doc for many antibiotics in Mexico, which leads to a lot of self medicating with antibiotics. I brought home some Ampicillin from the convenience store myself. Self medicating with antibiotics is not at all a good approach tho.

So, there are some antibiotics there, some claims that they have plenty of other supplies, some claims that they don't, some that the facilities are swamped, etc. Really, it's an unknown to be revealed later.

Do any of the Cozumel locals know if Tamiflu is available in town and is a prescription required there? Will they honor a prescription issued by a US doctor? Can you trust the efficacy of the drugs purchased there? Inquiring minds want to know....just in case....

Oh that it were that simple.

I think if I were in your shoes, I'd be staying home because no vacation is worth the risk with a pregnant wife. Hope you find something fun and safe to do!

I tend to agree, but I worry more than most.

 

[MMM]

It not only the location, but how one gets there (airplanes with concentrated air supply and people), and the ability to respond to an outbreak, and the fact that if it does get worse, notice I said IF, one could be locked out of the country the U.S. locks the border.

There's a flip side to this. Thus far the thread has focussed on risk of catching the disease in Mexico. Maybe you won't catch the virus in Cozumel. Depending on where you are from, maybe you will bring it with you and causethe island to become infected! Something to think about. Not enough known about the transmission.

 

[airstream]

Taken from THE CDC: CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Swine Influenza (Flu)
"........Yesterday, CDC issued new interim guidance for clinicians on how to care for children and pregnant women who may be infected with this virus (swine flu). Young children and pregnant women are two groups of people who are at high risk of serious complications from seasonal influenza......."

It's just not worth it.

 

[airstream]

MMM, I agree. COZ is probably at more risk from an infection arriving from the states now............

 

[lamont]

There's a flip side to this. Thus far the thread has focussed on risk of catching the disease in Mexico. Maybe you won't catch the virus in Cozumel. Depending on where you are from, maybe you will bring it with you and causethe island to become infected! Something to think about. Not enough known about the transmission.

Really the point should be about travel in general.

Flying to Minnesota probably increases your chances of getting sick. The focus on Mexico and Cancun is probably a bit of a distraction -- although I think that in general there's a point to be made about not wanting to get sick in a foreign country. Although our health care system in the US blows chunks in certain ways, it is the devil that I know...

Still I haven't canceled my trip for June, still expecting to just pack Tamiflu in case... I'm not changing my plans unless healthy adults start coming down with cytokine storming symptoms in US hospitals by then...

I just checked my reservation online and looked at the seat change requests and the plane flights to/from Cancun to Houston are still booked solid. Only one seat open on each flight right now, so it doesn't look like air travelers are going into a panic and canceling flights to Cancun well in advance...

 

[Bandmom]

Depending on where you are from, maybe you will bring it with you and causethe island to become infected! Something to think about. Not enough known about the transmission.

Exactly

We just don't know enough yet. Unfortunately, this may settle down and then flare up again when regular flu season hits in the Fall. That is why they are working so hard to get the vaccine for the Fall "tweaked" to cover this new virus. Cross your fingers for a good outcome for EVERYONE:signofcross:

 

[MMM]

Still I haven't canceled my trip for June, still expecting to just pack Tamiflu in case... I'm not changing my plans unless healthy adults start coming down with cytokine storming symptoms in US hospitals by then...

...

I haven't cancelled my trip in June either and my brother just booked a trip in May. My perspective would change if we have loads of positive cases turning up at home or in Coz as my travel dates approach.