The Swine Flu thing...

[UnderwaterOffice]

With the deaths at only 7 now and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know.

The quote above bears repeating.

To all of the locals with businesses to run; I sincerely apologize for any loss in revenue due to this thing. I wish I could continue my trip, eat with you, dive with you, get drunk with you and pee in your wetsuits, but alas I have to cancel though not for fear of catching N1H1.

 

[don Francisco]

My wife is still in Coz. enjoying the quiet and hasn't heard even rumors of any flu down there. I was there last week and had a great time, though I caught a cold, or (maybe the flu, who knows). In any case I had symptoms the morning after arriving so it's far more likely I caught it here in New York, or as is so typical, on the flight, rather than in Coz. Anyway, I treated it as I always do, with 4,000mg vitamin C daily, and it ran it's usual 4 day course.

The problem is that there's a media frenzy, coupled with maybe some legitimate WHO concern about spread of a particular flu virus strain. This means that everybody with the least sniffle or 100 degree fever is panicing and running to the doctor with possible "swine" flu.

Here in NY we have a much publicized case of 20 students returning from Cancun with "swine" flu, which rapidly mushroomed to almost the entire student body of that class. The unreported facts of the story include that there hasn't been a single documented case anywhere in the Yucatan, and that none of these students are gravely ill. It's far more likely that, if they contracted the flu, they did so not while in Cancun, but during the travel, where they mixed with large numbers of people.

The simple fact is that you're far more likely to catch the flu (any flu) in a large American city, than on an insulated island such as Cozumel. For the Cozumelenos, a fringe benefit of all this media BS, and reduced tourism, is that they're now far less likely to be exposed to the flu brought onto the island by an American tourist.

If I had the time, I'd fly back to Coz now without any worry, but if I were particulalry worried about the flu, I'd go there immediately, and stay there until this passed.

 

[lamont]

but even though there will probably never be ONE SINGLE CASE of swine flu in Cozumel, the damage is done...

Look, will you people on the island of Cozumel who make a living from tourists stop making statements which are *obviously* flagrantly biased and designed to downplay this issue as much as possible and are simply medically inaccurate?

This flu virus *will* travel the globe and in the next year or two 50% of us are probably going to get it or its descendants. Cozumel will get it, or some antigenically shifted variant of it. This thing is here to stay and the echoes of it will be with us for decades, just like we can trace the lineage of the common influenza viruses that are in the yearly vaccines back to viruses that did a similar antigenic jump to create novel flu viruses and created pandemics.

What you can say is that it looks like this is going to turn into a more typical outbreak of pandemic flu that puts children and the elderly at risk, and produces bad flu symptoms in adults. Since most people who go to Cozumel and go diving probably don't drag kids along it *is* true that its starting to look silly about those people going into a panic and canceling vacations. However, statements like 'Cozumel will never get a single case of it' clearly don't have a lot of medical knowledge behind them and are clearly financially motivated.

And sorry if it hurts your finances, but your customers with kids should not be traveling right now. That is actually a perfectly sensible thing to freak out about. Of the 6 cases that we have locally right now, one is an 11 year old kid that required hospitalization. The one fatality in the US so far was the 23-month old child in Houston. I'm a whole lot less concerned about myself right now, but I'm still very concerned about my young nieces and nephews. And you don't want the island of Cozumel overwhelmed with a bunch of sick young kids overloading the Island's hospital capacity for number of respirators.

This may not be a repeat of the 1918 flu, but stop taking the thing so lightly.

 

[lamont]

I suppose that's POSSIBLE...but I know that is not the case. I have spoken to a highly respected physician (he works at all three hospitals) on the island and he confirmed that we have NO CASES in Cozumel, and no suspect cases as of yesterday afternoon.

With the deaths at only 7 now

All of a sudden you trust the Mexican government now that their numbers are what you want to hear?

and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know.

Based on the number of children requiring hospitalization or dying and the severity of the symptoms in adult patients this is false.

No one wants to get the flu, but at least we are discovering that those with healthy immune systems can fight it and recover through normal means.

Okay that seems to be entirely true.

This is encouraging news!

 

[ggunn]

On the today show Biden told the public that he has advised his family to not ride the trains.

I really like Joe, but I think that this was an irresponsible thing for him to say. For him to privately think that is one thing, but to speak those words over the media from his position as the VP of the US is another.

 

[firstdive2005]

Look, will you people on the island of Cozumel who make a living from tourists stop making statements which are *obviously* flagrantly biased and designed to downplay this issue as much as possible and are simply medically inaccurate?

This flu virus *will* travel the globe and in the next year or two 50% of us are probably going to get it or its descendants. Cozumel will get it, or some antigenically shifted variant of it. This thing is here to stay and the echoes of it will be with us for decades, just like we can trace the lineage of the common influenza viruses that are in the yearly vaccines back to viruses that did a similar antigenic jump to create novel flu viruses and created pandemics.

What you can say is that it looks like this is going to turn into a more typical outbreak of pandemic flu that puts children and the elderly at risk, and produces bad flu symptoms in adults. Since most people who go to Cozumel and go diving probably don't drag kids along it *is* true that its starting to look silly about those people going into a panic and canceling vacations. However, statements like 'Cozumel will never get a single case of it' clearly don't have a lot of medical knowledge behind them and are clearly financially motivated.

And sorry if it hurts your finances, but your customers with kids should not be traveling right now. That is actually a perfectly sensible thing to freak out about. Of the 6 cases that we have locally right now, one is an 11 year old kid that required hospitalization. The one fatality in the US so far was the 23-month old child in Houston. I'm a whole lot less concerned about myself right now, but I'm still very concerned about my young nieces and nephews. And you don't want the island of Cozumel overwhelmed with a bunch of sick young kids overloading the Island's hospital capacity for number of respirators.

This may not be a repeat of the 1918 flu, but stop taking the thing so lightly.

I'm definately not going to sound as smart as you. I am in no way connected to the medical profesions.
Every single time I have flown somewhere to dive,(quite a few) I sit on the plane wondering if I will catch a bug. Everytime I land at an exotic place I see someone that has contracted sometype of bug that they have to try and take medication so they are able to dive. (By the way I strongly think one shouldnt do that). Usually these people are the ones that I see on the second week of their vacation. I hate wondering if I am the one that will be bugged up by my second week. Also I quit shaking hands a couple weeks before diving and am very cautious about my company(are they sick etc?) So I'm of the opinion this is FREAKING HOGWASH!!!!!!
OPEN UP THE FREAKING BORDERS YOU MORONS!!!!!!!!

 

[lamont]

Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.

This is actually an informative article on the puzzle of why the cases in Mexico seem to be so lethal, compared to the fatality rate in other countries:

The Associated Press: Scientists struggle to understand swine flu virus

Leading hypothesis seems to be that a lot more people were infected with the virus than the Mexican authorities know about -- but the lack of samples positive for this H1N1 strain in random sampling prior to the outbreak doesn't entirely back that theory up...

 

[firstdive2005]

I just got off the phone with my doctor. I told him I was on Coz mid March. I told him I flew via Cancun. I just told him my symtoms of this cold/flu I am almost over and that my wife has now taken over. The advise was are you having difficulty breathing. No. Then stay in bed. Youve got the flu.

So my question is could I have incubated this from the flight mid March to one week ago? I'm not worried about this at all. Just curious. gotta go my nose is dripping.....

 

[UnderwaterOffice]

Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.

Hence the histeria. It is not "News" it is factual information coming from the WHO. Listen to yesterday's press briefing. They explain the discrepancy of numbers and counts. WHO (Dr Fukuda) explains how they are getting their numbers from the Governments of the pertinent countries/states. They are listing only cases that have been laboratory confirmed, while they are dismissing 100's.

WHO | Swine influenza virtual press briefings

What is lacking in these stats, is how many they have dismissed as being the standard flu, which statistically can kill thousands a day and has always had a similar likeliness to mutate.

 

[UnderwaterOffice]

Wall Street Journal:
I wonder if you could help us understand a little bit better the different numbers of deaths being reported from Mexico. I mean, clearly WHO is reporting only deaths that have been Laboratory-confirmed by CDC or another lab. I am wondering if you know what testing capabilities the Mexicans can have right now, and so when they are saying they have 150 deaths or whatever numbers they are using, what level of testing and confidence do they have.

Dr Fukuda:
In terms of the different numbers of deaths, I think that one of the features that is simply to follow investigations especially when you have big outbreaks occurring, is that the numbers can be very confusing and you can have cases of disease reported, cases of deaths reported, and then some of them might be laboratory-confirmed deaths, and often times these are deaths which are epidemiologically suspicious but not laboratoryconfirmed. I cannot address directly why do the numbers vary a little bit, right now, but I do know how these outbreaks unfold and how difficult and overwhelming it is to get the numbers quite straight. It is very common to have the numbers vary somewhat in the beginning of these large outbreaks. At this point, I cannot address the specifics, but that is generally, what is true with the outbreaks.

Dr Fukuda: In Mexico there are 26 cases with 7 deaths, this is the same as before.

This is all quoted from yesterday's briefing 04/29.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/swineflu_presstranscript_2009_04_29.pdf

This did also just release the Audio for today's briefing, but no transcript yet.
WHO | Swine influenza virtual press briefings