Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[SlugLife]

I am not 100% up on the recent stuff, and I have not read the entire thread, but Russia was blowing up pipelines to Georgia back in 2006. It may be that the Russian were trying to freeze the German out of the war. Russians, to my understanding have been running under the assumption that Western countries would cave to public pressure to not get involved. After watching Trump getting pushed cutting and running in Syria and Afghanistan (not to mention their invasions & asssassinations in the former republics), they may have expected to have a half hearted set of sanctions imposed by the West, bulldoze Ukraine and be back to business. Cutting off the flow of gas and making the Germans freeze for the winter, in the minds of the Russians, might prevent Germany from giving full support to sending arm to Ukraine. No one can send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without the Germans giving the thumbs up. Germany is central to NATO and miserable and cold Germans could split the West. Russia has always had a habit of misreading the West. After watching four years of Nato being undermined, I could see Putin betting that turning off the gas to European civilians would weaken resolve. He has been using a similar strategy of destroying civilian infrastructure on the ground in Ukraine.

So, why not just turn off the tap?

 

[tridacna]

Q-Anon on SB. This is fabulous!

 

[CT-Rich]

So, why not just turn off the tap?

I am not sure why they blew up pipelines flowing into Georgia in 2006. If the pipeline isn’t operable, you don’t have to explain breaking contracts, plausible deniability. I am just speculating.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

I am not sure why they blew up pipelines flowing into Georgia in 2006. If the pipeline isn’t operable, you don’t have to explain breaking contracts, plausible deniability. I am just speculating.

2006 Russia–Georgia energy crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2006 Georgian–Russian espionage controversy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russo-Georgian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[admikar]

I am not 100% up on the recent stuff, and I have not read the entire thread, but Russia was blowing up pipelines to Georgia back in 2006. It may be that the Russian were trying to freeze the German out of the war. Russians, to my understanding have been running under the assumption that Western countries would cave to public pressure to not get involved. After watching Trump getting pushed cutting and running in Syria and Afghanistan (not to mention their invasions & asssassinations in the former republics), they may have expected to have a half hearted set of sanctions imposed by the West, bulldoze Ukraine and be back to business. Cutting off the flow of gas and making the Germans freeze for the winter, in the minds of the Russians, might prevent Germany from giving full support to sending arm to Ukraine. No one can send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without the Germans giving the thumbs up. Germany is central to NATO and miserable and cold Germans could split the West. Russia has always had a habit of misreading the West. After watching four years of Nato being undermined, I could see Putin betting that turning off the gas to European civilians would weaken resolve. He has been using a similar strategy of destroying civilian infrastructure on the ground in Ukraine.

How to be back to business with blown pipeline?
Yes, I do agree that Russians used gas as a weapon, but all that could have been achieved just by closing the valves. A lot easier and cheaper in short run, helluva lot cheaper in the long run.

 

[Wibble]

Who cares who blew it up?

Who shot JR?

 

[lexvil]

Who cares who blew it up?

Who shot JR?

Cliff

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Who cares who blew it up?

Who shot JR?

I'm thinking of this whole thread as slightly more contentious "Accidents and Incidents" fare - weight of evidence versus "why would he do that?"

How to be back to business with blown pipeline?
Yes, I do agree that Russians used gas as a weapon, but all that could have been achieved just by closing the valves. A lot easier and cheaper in short run, helluva lot cheaper in the long run.

Thing was, they'd already tried that with Nord Stream 1 in the months prior - first reductions to 20% capacity and then for weeks before the explosions, a total shutdown for "maintenance difficulties." If the intent was simply to jack up prices it worked for a while; you can see where gas prices spiked in that timeframe. Problem is that was only a short-term boost; Germany was getting close to having full gas storage and looking at the graph from the Financial Times piece linked earlier gas prices had tumbled (maybe as much as half by late September). So at that point they've turned off the valves, the windfall prices are over, and there's no change in Germany or Europe's position - if anything, they've taken their money elsewhere. So what's the next move?

I don't think the financial angle would have been the main motive for Russia, but if Nord Stream 1 had outlived its near-term economic usefulness it could still serve what's been one of Putin's long-term goals and probably Russia's best hope at present - fracturing NATO. Blaming the destruction of the pipelines on dastardly American capitalists looking to put Europe under their thumb might do that; if Germany took Russia up on the offer to open the surviving Nord Stream 2 line that would be the first crack. Recall also that things on land were not going well in September 2022; Russian forces had just gotten routed in the Kharkiv counteroffensive and their situation in Kherson Oblast was deteriorating. Europe was starting to believe that Ukraine was in fact capable of going on the offensive and retaking ground.

The Russian Navy and/or GUGI may also have been looking for some laurels; the former hasn't covered itself in glory in the Black Sea and both might be looking to make sure their funding for shiny new toys doesn't get redirected towards the Army or some other element of the Russian military-industrial kleptocracy (see the German Kriegsmarine in WWII for some historical examples that did not turn out well). They might have pushed the plan to demonstrate their value to the war effort.

 

[SlugLife]

I don't think the financial angle would have been the main motive for Russia, but if Nord Stream 1 had outlived its near-term economic usefulness it could still serve what's been one of Putin's long-term goals and probably Russia's best hope at present - fracturing NATO. Blaming the destruction of the pipelines on dastardly American capitalists looking to put Europe under their thumb might do that; if Germany took Russia up on the offer to open the surviving Nord Stream 2 line that would be the first crack. Recall also that things on land were not going well in September 2022; Russian forces had just gotten routed in the Kharkiv counteroffensive and their situation in Kherson Oblast was deteriorating. Europe was starting to believe that Ukraine was in fact capable of going on the offensive and retaking ground.

I'm not following how any of this is a motive for Russia to blow up the pipeline, unless everyone at the Kremlin is high 24/7.

The Russian Navy and/or GUGI may also have been looking for some laurels; the former hasn't covered itself in glory in the Black Sea and both might be looking to make sure their funding for shiny new toys doesn't get redirected towards the Army or some other element of the Russian military-industrial kleptocracy (see the German Kriegsmarine in WWII for some historical examples that did not turn out well). They might have pushed the plan to demonstrate their value to the war effort.

Seek glory by going rouge and blowing up your nation's own infrastructure using Russian military assets without Russia's permission? And doing that covertly at the same time?

 

[OMyMyOHellYes]

For oil pipe-lines, there are these plug-looking things which can be sent down the pipeline to clean it. I'm not sure if that would work on a gas-pipeline, especially with a heavy payload.

Regardless, that wouldn't explain Nordstream 2, given Nordstream 2 was pressurized but inactive, meaning no gas-flow.

M R called "pigs".

Widely used in the gas pipeline world.