Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased over the past day over the southwestern Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west-northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and most of the computer models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua on Tuesday, which would not give 99L enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The storm will bring very heavy rains of 3 - 6" to northern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua over the next two days.