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In order to do risk assessment you must first be able to contemplate the risks associated with a given dive, and then imagine what you could do to either avoid those risks or deal with them. Even experienced divers don't always do a good job of this, and sometimes end up having what we call "I'll never do that again" moments. I think most divers have had those. But we'll have to disagree on your second statement. I'm a reasonably intelligent person, well educated and experienced in diving ... and there are many, MANY dives in the world I would not consider myself qualified to do a risk assessment for. Essentially any dive environment I've never been exposed to. "Get more training" isn't always the best way to remediate the risks ... often it's a matter of doing those dives with someone who has the requisite exposure and experience to help you prepare. But there's more to it than you can get by reading.I am saying that the theoretical education of planning a dive is easily acquired without an instructor. I am saying that any person, with a little motivation, can educate themselves well enough to do risk assessment, for themselves, on any dive available to do anywhere in the world. It is up to the individual to then decide whether or not that is a dive they want to do given their current skill set. Risk assessment is what all of this boils down to and no one can decide someone else's risk tolerance. Plain and simple, no matter how much we say "get more training" there will always be individuals who will push well beyond the limits of their training. Many will survive, by luck. Some will survive, by skill. Some will die, arguably also by luck, but I think most of us would agree more by being foolish.
Risk tolerance certainly varies by individual. But one thing to keep in mind is that when you dive with individuals who have a high tolerance to risk, it's not just themselves that are being exposed to those high tolerances ... it's also the people they're diving with, as well as anyone who might be compelled to intervene should that high-tolerance person find themselves in a situation they can't get themselves out of.
We're in complete agreement ... classes don't teach you how to dive, they teach you how to learn diving. The real classroom is the water.My point was that those decisions and level of information isn't the education I was referring to learning on your own, though I believe a lot of it can be with just more diving under your belt.
You had me right up till that last statement ... research might make you aware of some risks ... the most common ones. But it will in no way prepare you for comprehending how they feel or test your ability to deal with them ... for that you need to add water. All diving is situational. The more aggressive your diving becomes, the more important it is to have developed your skills to a "craft" level that allows you to think, anticipate, and respond on the fly. You won't get this by reading about it.I have taken PADI OW and TDI Basic Nitrox. I think I have 27 dives now. I'm slowly ticking off the things I think will get me to where I can do the dives I want to do with any boat out there. I've done a few dives down to 85-90 feet. I've done a dozen more in the 60-70 foot range. Most of my dives are in the 40-60 foot range. I can safely perform a CESA from 90 feet, I've practiced it. I've done a dozen or so night dives, I've done surf entries, boat entries, drift dives, now a couple dry dives, cold water dives, warm water dives, and had a camera on almost every dive to this point. I have had several "emergencies" (as folks here often consider them) that I dealt with just fine, generally on my own. I've never panicked and I've dealt with these "emergencies" because of previous "stress management" (What TStormdiver quoted as ' Essentially summed up in Sheck Exley's quotation, "Survival depends on being able to suppress anxiety and replace it with calm, clear, quick and correct reasoning..." ' ) training I've had in various other activities I've participated in over the last 20 years. Am I qualified to do the Andrea Doria? No. Any cave, anywhere? No. Could I plan those dives on paper? Absolutely, given a week or two of time to do research and get a little book learnin'. Would I then go and do those dives? Not on your life, let alone mine. But that has to do, as I've said before, with my own risk tolerance. Nothing more, nothing less. The research I could do in a couple of weeks time would realistically make me all too aware of what the real risks are- even the ones I don't know of at this moment.
This will work if you take a course that challenges you ... rather than one that simply steps you through a progression of skills that are designed to be easy. GUE Fundamentals is one such course, although there are others that may suffice. In my AOW class, the final dive is intended to do just that. After spending the entire class working on achieving good buoyancy control, trim, buddy awareness, and navigational skills, the students are asked to do a dive where they follow prescribed navigational patterns midwater ... where they can't see the bottom. One student gets the compass, the other the dive computer ... and they must work together to swim a pattern while maintaining a constant depth of 20 feet.Someone made a suggestion that I put my money where my mouth is and make a comparison of what I think I know before a class versus what I know after the class. I plan to do that, if I remember, after whatever class I take next. Right now I have no courses on the horizon but I think it would be a great way see if I know what I think I know.
The purpose of the dive isn't navigation ... it isn't even buoyancy control ... it's about recognizing your limitations by attempting a dive that's designed to be difficult. Most students come out of the initial attempt with long faces. But the value of the exercise becomes apparent in subsequent attempts, as the students begin ... through experience ... to comprehend the things I told them to pay attention to prior to the dive. By the time they've made a few attempts, they've not only developed a better understanding of the sort of difficulties they can get themselves into ... they've also developed better techniques for dealing with them. But nothing I can say or they can read will prepare them for learning those things ... it comes by doing. And in the process, they begin to know what they don't know. That's really the point.
Once again we're in agreement about the choices people make. I solo dive a lot ... and yet I never took a solo class. But I learned and developed the requisite skills by applying what I learned in other classes ... or simply through my experiences of diving with others in the more than 1800 dives I'd done before going solo.I understand the concept of "you don't know what you don't know" and I actually tend to believe it. I just think it's abused in threads like this when someone asks a question or suggests something a bit askew of the bell-curve of what most of us find acceptable progression. You see it in every "Should I solo dive" thread there is and your article sums up the decision tree fairly well, I believe. In the end, each individual must make the choice and the diving community as a whole hopes for the best outcome.
And yet, even today ... with hundreds of solo dives ... I still find myself sometimes taken by surprise, in circumstances I hadn't before experienced. Diving's like that ... situational ... and no matter how much you know there will always be something that you haven't experienced or thought about. The key to risk management at that point is to have developed a robust set of tools you can call upon as the situation demands and apply to the particular circumstances you find yourself in.
That's what newer divers lack ... the tools, and the craft to apply them in ways that go beyond what they were taught. You don't get those tools by reading ... you get them by diving.
... Bob (Grateful Diver)