Cozumel COVID-19 updates

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WetInPortland:
Chuck, can you easily calculate and graph the change in new cases day to day? That's something we don't get directly in the daily updates and it would help visualize if we're really following the bell curve.
Click to expand...

I added a few data points - the percentage of positive cases increased from day to day and the 7 day average of the percentage of positive case increase - It's based on Q Roo numbers in whole - Cancun is definetly leading our problem here.

I'm no statistician, to me it doesn't look like we are getting better, we are staying sorta steady. I tried looking at Texas daily positive case increases, seems that they are opening up, how do they look compared to us - they were in the 2% range but who knows their testing and reporting verses ours. One thing, it does appear our test results are happening faster than at the beginning......

Here's a picture of the graph, I'll attach the spreadsheet with all the numbers too. It's alot easier to read the numbers if you open the spreadsheet.

upload_2020-5-2_14-39-47.png
 

Attachments

ChuckP:
I added a few data points - the percentage of positive cases increased from day to day and the 7 day average of the percentage of positive case increase - It's based on Q Roo numbers in whole - Cancun is definetly leading our problem here.

I'm no statistician, to me it doesn't look like we are getting better, we are staying sorta steady. I tried looking at Texas daily positive case increases, seems that they are opening up, how do they look compared to us - they were in the 2% range but who knows their testing and reporting verses ours. One thing, it does appear our test results are happening faster than at the beginning......

Here's a picture of the graph, I'll attach the spreadsheet with all the numbers too. It's alot easier to read the numbers if you open the spreadsheet.

View attachment 583847
Click to expand...
Testing in Texas is pretty much readily available and affordable. Anyone that has symptoms and the cash to pay for it can get tested. It is NOT like testing in QRoo.
 
horn34:
Testing in Texas is pretty much readily available and affordable. Anyone that has symptoms and the cash to pay for it can get tested. It is NOT like testing in QRoo.
Click to expand...
That's good for individuals, but from a public health perspective the testing in Texas and most other places is numerically far below what it needs to be to generate the data necessary to track the disease. Here in Austin there are only 12 collection sites (ArcGIS Web Application) for a population of about a million people; testing needs to be free of charge and much more widely available for the data generated to have statistical significance.

Opening things up in the absence of this data is very risky.
 
From the 3-May noon update:
Code: 
                                 Previous  ->  Today
Q Roo Confirmed Cases                 888   ->  911
     Social Isolation                 152   ->  160
     Hospitalized                     187   ->  195
     Recovered                        431   ->  436
     Deaths                           118   ->  120
Q Roo Tests pending                    89   ->   80

Cozumel
     Confirmed Cases                  23   ->   23
     Recovered                        11   ->   11
     Deaths                            6   ->    6
Data from SESA Quintana Roo on Twitter
See post #147 for more information about how these numbers are generated and why they may seem low or the the percentages unusual.

Rate of increases seems to be slowing, but I'm not confident that the reporting is as robust on the weekend (This is not a knock against Mexico; I've seen this in the USA as well.) We'll keep our fingers crossed for Monday.
 
From the 4-May noon update:
Code: 
                                 Previous  ->  Today
Q Roo Confirmed Cases                 911  ->  923
     Social Isolation                 160  ->  162
     Hospitalized                     195  ->  201
     Recovered                        436  ->  439
     Deaths                           120  ->  121
Q Roo Tests pending                    80  ->  122

Cozumel
     Confirmed Cases                  23   ->   23
     Recovered                        11   ->   12
     Deaths                            6   ->    6
Data from SESA Quintana Roo on Twitter
See post #147 for more information about how these numbers are generated and why they may seem low or the the percentages unusual.

The slowing trend seems to be continuing. If we can keep this up, maybe we've turned the corner.
 
Huge increase in the tests pending.
The answer to my question my question may be "out there" already, but can anything be inferred from that? For example, are tests only given to symptomatic, etc. patients?
 
mediumone:
Huge increase in the tests pending.
The answer to my question my question may be "out there" already, but can anything be inferred from that? For example, are tests only given to symptomatic, etc. patients?
Click to expand...
Yes, large increase, but I'm not certain that we can read too much into it. The pending case number oscillates quite a bit (red line on @ChuckP's charts). We'll know more in a week or so.
 
I sort of disagree with the slowing trend in Q Roo but think I agree with it here in Cozumel. Look at the numbers they show on the Twitter feed that Scott references - that's all we have to base our opinions on, the government says nine times those numbers also but I question nine times what anymore....

I looked at the way I was graphing it and I don't know that it really told you where we stood, are we getting better/worse or holding steady. I did something different and graphed Cases in Study, Positives that are in Social Distance (sent home to recover), Positives in the Hospital and Total Active Positives. I think this better shows where we are at - it shows you how many people are sick today (recovered and deceased are not included), where they are at and the number of potentially sick.

You can see that up until a week ago, they were sending people home to isolate. A new temporary hospital came on line over in Cancun last week and it shows, there are now more people in the hospital then socially isolating - there are two more temporary hospitals in the works from what I understand. We are at the highest point to date of people in the hospital and close to the highest point set last week of people sick........

It's difficult to pinpoint which cities have what going on - it just looks like Cancun is a big problem and I'd say we have leaps and bounds to go before June 1st for the state of Q Roo at least. Spreadsheet is attached with all the numbers in there.

upload_2020-5-4_13-49-53.png
 

Attachments

From the 5-May noon update:
Code: 
                                 Previous  ->  Today
Q Roo Confirmed Cases                 923  ->  956
     Social Isolation                 162  ->  160
     Hospitalized                     201  ->  195
     Recovered                        439  ->  457
     Deaths                           121  ->  144
Q Roo Tests pending                   122  ->  128

Cozumel
     Confirmed Cases                  23   ->   22
     Recovered                        11   ->   12
     Deaths                            6   ->    7
Data from SESA Quintana Roo on Twitter
See post #147 for more information about how these numbers are generated and why they may seem low or the the percentages unusual.

I don't know why the number of confirmed cases for Cozumel went down.

Cervecería Punta Sur was closed by authorities and likely faces fines; reasons are a little murky. Rrestaurants are allowed to remain open for takeout or delivery. One article said there were, "lines of people buying cases of beer", so perhaps it was an issue that they didn't have measures in place for proper social distancing. Another report stated that they were closed because, while the sale of alcohol is allowed, brewing beer is not considered an essential activity under the Phase 3 of the Emergency Order. I thought that at least one of the major breweries had restarted operations after shutting down earlier.
 
D
WetInPortland:
Cervecería Punta Sur was closed by authorities and likely faces fines; reasons are a little murky. Rrestaurants are allowed to remain open for takeout or delivery. One article said there were, "lines of people buying cases of beer", so perhaps it was an issue that they didn't have measures in place for proper social distancing. Another report stated that they were closed because, while the sale of alcohol is allowed, brewing beer is not considered an essential activity under the Phase 3 of the Emergency Order. I thought that at least one of the major breweries had restarted operations after shutting down earlier.
Click to expand...


Due to the beer shortage in Cozumel, CPS had a line out the door on Sunday. Cops drove by, saw the line and shut them down. They then claimed CPS was shut down because they were selling beer to the public (to-go growler fills) without the required accompanying food component....which is ridiculous because CPS has been advertising/selling to-go beer growlers for weeks without a problem.

Basically the cops saw a line out the door with no social distancing, shut them down, then claimed it was because they weren't selling food with the beer.
 
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