I really like an idea that came up on CDF, that of "risk normalization". The concept is that, if you have taken a risk and gotten away with it, your subsequent perception of the magnitude of that risk is diminished. I think that impacts all of us who dive -- the general public thinks we're crazy for going underwater on life support equipment, lots of people who dive think those of us who dive in caves are crazy, and those of us who dive in caves may think people who pass no-mount restrictions are crazy. But the people who are DOING those things don't think they are, because of two factors: they have experience or competence that reduces risks that would be much higher for the rest of us, AND they're familiar (perhaps too familiar) with the process.
Someone I know said, the other day, something that struck me. People may say, "The risks are worth it," but if you told them that it was certain that they would die if they dove that day, probably no one would do that dive. People do these extreme dives because they do not believe the bill will come due, and every time they're right that belief becomes stronger. Eventually, I think they run the risk of beginning to think it will NEVER come due, and at that point, their risk mitigation starts to fall off. I think that's the root of what happened here, as best we will ever understand it.
I cannot imagine the personal experience of sitting in the dark, trying to work your way back through an uncooperative hole, knowing the seconds are ticking down, and waiting for that first breath of water. I do know that being a pretty conservative cave tourist will help me avoid ever being there, so that's what I am.
