A BLOWOUT?

[Manatee Diver]

Current predictions are calling for it to rapidly intensify to a possible cat 3 before landfall, going to cat 2 prior to landfall.

The published models are starting to show that.

No noticeable changes in the NHC forecast tracks, but now are predicting it will be a major hurricane at landfall. Ya'll have bigger things to worry about than the caves being blown out.

Models are shifting southward a little, and the intensity model does show a jump in intensity but the discussion warns that the storm is showing very strong signs that it will rapidly intensify.

Also new rain forecast out showing even more rain for the area.

 

[tjjohnson36]

Who is "We"?

Myself and agency, along with meteorologist from several agencies including the NHC.
I apologize for throwing the "we" out there, especially without any links or qualifiers attached to it.
I am in emergency management and public safety on the gulf coast, and am tasked with evacuation and preparation decisions for many, so I am a part of a team and network that are deeply invested in many forecast discussions with all of the federal and non-profit players.
We do not all always agree, but we are all in agreement on this one. Even though it has caused many to start binge drinking... to many variables involved that have never been before.

 

[Capt Jim Wyatt]

Myself and agency, along with meteorologist from several agencies including the NHC.

Very cool.

 

[tjjohnson36]

During our 0800 meeting it was agreed that it will be a major hurricane by tomorrow afternoon.
Landfall should be between Cedar Key and Steinhatchee. It will bring heavy rain, 6 to 10 inches average.
Should occur Wednesday morning.
It will be crossing Florida quickly, entering the Atlantic near savannah wed evening.

 

[Manatee Diver]

The official NHC forecast hasn't changed much. They have issued hurricane warnings. In the forecast dicussion they've made very clear that the track should shift radically due to paralleling much of the coast of Florida. Similar to how Charlie and Ian suddenly shifted to the right to go up Charlotte Harbor. I was going to head up for a dive tomorrow, but due to the storm I am instead doing some basic hurricane prep tomorrow just in case despite being outside the warning area (bring furnature inside and such).

Models have wobbled back north a bit, but again they are back largely in alignment. No major changes to the intensity forecast, but again it doesn't appear to reflect that rapid intensification that that the NHC notes is likely to happen. No updates to the rain forecast, but they do show that flash floods are likely throughout cave country.

Everyone batten down the hatches and stay safe.

 

[Manatee Diver]

NHC has nudged their forecast slightly westward, otherwise no major changes in the forecast and the discussion.

No major changes in the track and intensity models except that one randomly showing that it might boomerang around. Rain forecast updated with no major changes.

 

[rddvet]

NHC has nudged their forecast slightly westward, otherwise no major changes in the forecast and the discussion.

No major changes in the track and intensity models except that one randomly showing that it might boomerang around. Rain forecast updated with no major changes.

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Good for us in tampa bay at least. Not much better for cave country

 

[Manatee Diver]

Good for us in tampa bay at least. Not much better for cave country

Yeah it makes me feel safer, though a random right turn like what happened for Charlie and Ian concerns me. Hopefully we don't
get hit my neigborhood still has a lot of blue tarped roof from Ian.

We are also on the storm surge side of the storm, with up to 4-7ft forecast for the Tampa Bay area. I think that will be the first time in the 20ish years I've living here that we've been on that side of a major storm.

Fingers crossed that everyone makes it out the other side just fine. And all we have to whine about is not being able to dive for a couple of weeks.

 

[Manatee Diver]

NHC forecast shows no major changes per the discussion.

The model tracks appear largely the same until it comes ashore, though that random boomerang track is now showing up in a second model and you see others curving down, so it might not be completely random. Wouldn't be the first time that a storm came back around to hit Florida twice. Intensity models appear largely to be the same.

 

[Manatee Diver]

Idalia is officially a hurricane. NHC forecast has moved slightly westward again as the models have moved westward, so the High Springs area might be spared a direct hit. The forecast track is also showing the curve around, so we might just get a double whammy of it hitting North Florida and curving around to hit South Florida.

NHC discussion says that the inner core is becoming organized and that the eye is mostly formed. Which are prerequisites for rapid intensification as it hits the warm waters of the Gulf. And they are still predicting that it will be a cat 3 or higher storm when it comes ashore. No major changes in the rain or flash flood forecasts.