1 in 14 Cave divers die???????

[karstdvr]

What also counts here I think is. Less untrained divers go into caves nowadays (maybe increased awareness of the dangers, the STOP signs etc) so it now looks that more and more accidents are to do with trained cave divers. But maybe in actuality the ratio of trained vs. non trained has shifted, so that percentage wise it now seems that more trained cavers are getting hurt?

.

I know we see less untrained divers venturing into the overhead because we have rules at state parks,and no light rules at other places to prevent it. But unfortunately we've had untrained cave diving deaths in recent memory at Royal,Little river,and a sink south of Tallahassee,because these were uncontrolled areas. The main thing I am keying on is looking at the absolute,and the one thing that is commonly noted is that we are seeing a rise in the number of trained cave diving deaths. I'm sure if we took the number of safe cave dives completed and factored it into the trained cave diving deaths,we'd come up with a warm and fuzzy statistic. As mentioned earlier the trained cave deaths fall into two categories(frequently,but not always): medical problems ie heart attack and exceeding experience level. Now that we have more open circuit entering cave diving,which makes it a little more complicated,I will be curious to see if we see trained cave diving accidents on OC.

 

[devolution365]

Thanks for the math help, DiveMonkeys. I knew that didn't sound right...

 

[brianstclair]

As stated before: 500 deaths since 1960 and 25,000 people certified means that your 1 out of 14 statistic is false.

Also stated before: The 25,000 number isn't really the number of people cave diving. Some get certified, but don't actively dive caves, others cave dive without certification. Unless we have some global law that any scuba diver that enters a cave must report it to a centralized agency who tracks such things -we'll never have the statistic you are looking for because we don't know how many "cave divers" there are to compare to the number of deaths.

500/25,000 = 0.02% chance
0.02% chance = 1 in 50 chance

But that assumes no one's diving in caves without being certified.

I'm bookmarking this thread. It will be interesting a year from now to look back on this when someone posts "I read somewhere on the internet that 1 in 50 cave divers die, is that correct?!"...

 

[brianstclair]

BTW, devolution, I did not mean that last post in any way as a personal attack. Looking at it, it sounds a little ruder than it was meant to.

FWIW, I have emailed a couple of people who appear to be involved in the safety and accident analysis side of things with the NACD, asking them for whatever solid information they have available on this topic. I gave them a link to this thread, and if I hear anything from them outside of this forum I will post it.

Until then, I happily return you to your regular, sit-com programming

Brian

 

[oceancrest67]

This discussion is an interesting run. Statistics is a funny business...and someone pointed it out earlier...it depends upon the initial data and where and when the data was collected...stats can easily be skewed to say one thing over another. Still, with more rec divers entering the arena of technical diving (including myself)...and I have been diving for about 11 years now...it would be no surprise if cave diving deaths increase...for whatever reason: not following the rules, going beyond one's trained limits etc. Cave diving and deep wreck diving used to be, and to some degree, still are the realms of a few adventurous souls.

I am cavern and intro cave certified...but, this only means going through an initial training...and I proceeded with it with several goals in mind...personal goals...to better my skills and to learn more. I always feel that more knowledge helps...respecting the environment helps.

With this all of this...I have repeated my own conclusion...I am wary of individuals (divers) who beat their chests, pin their medals, show off, walk with arrogance and who do not respect the elements and the unpredictable forces of nature. Divers must show a little humility in the face of some unforgiving environments.

Just my 02.

 

[devolution365]

No offense taken, brianstclair. I know my number is just slightly more scientific than predicting the number of deaths with a spork. I'd love to see my 1 in 50 odds turn up again in 5 years, though. It'd mean I was, like, internet-famous and stuff! :59:

 

[Dive-aholic]

Did you read the account? Its covered in "Caverns Measureless to Man". IIRC, he breathed down his backgas and stages too fast and couldn't make it to any of the staged deco bottles before running out of gas. He wrapped his leg around the line so that his body would not be lost.

I did read it. The only thing that's known for sure is his backgas was empty and he wrapped his leg around the line. Anything else is speculation. Did he push the limits beyond thirds intentionally, or was there something else that prevented him from turning around? No one know for sure what happened, just what resulted.

 

[karstdvr]

Interesting article by Jeff Bozanic that reinforces some things that I said previously

Cave Divers Are Mortal!
Recent Trends in Cave Diving Fatalities

By Jeffrey Bozanic, NSS 22532 FE

October 2005

It has been some time since I last collated and published a synopsis of the cave diving fatality data base (1-4). I am currently in the process of compiling the recent fatalities, though it will be a few more months before I am completed with this iteration of analyses. In the process of working with the data, I have developed some quite alarming statistics. Even though the data entry and analysis are not yet complete, I feel compelled to bring this information to the attention of the cave diving community. In essence, the data seem to show that the involvement of divers with training in cave and cavern diving has significantly increased, and continues to do so.From the late 1970s to mid-1980s, the cave diving community seemed to have the general feeling that they were “immune” to dying in caves while diving. While there were a few incidents involving trained cave divers, most of them implicated divers who were diving far beyond the level of their training (certified cavern divers doing stage dives while wearing double cylinders, etc). The vast majority of fatalities were divers who had no formal training in cave or cavern diving. [Figure 1 [1] ]

 

[sirpatty79]

What a bunch of crappity crap! That's the media sensationalizing what CAN be a hazardous sport so they can sell movie tickets. Those numbers are totally untrue. Most people who die in caves are those with hardly any or NO cave training. Another example of the stigmatizing of cave diving by people who aren't familiar with it. Peace and that's my 2 pesos....
-Patrick

 

[Jeff Toorish]

That is a line from a movie...and not true.