Worry about Hurricanes—irrational?

[Wookie]

If you check my profile, you will see that I have been in a pretty fair number of places over the years, and I was in a lot of them during hurricane season. I did have a September Florida trip wiped out by a hurricane about a decade ago. I have also been lucky, diving in Australia, the Philippines, and the Caymans within days of hurricanes. Other than that one hurricane in Florida, all my other days lost to bad weather (and there have been many) were outside of the hurricane season. A few of those have been diving in the winter in Cozumel, and all of the rest were in Florida.

I have been in the Pensacola area for a total of 11 days over the years, ready to dive the Oriskany, and never done it once. This past March I had two students schedule flights to stay in the Pompano Beach area with me for a week to get their trimix certifications, but, nope, too windy all week. The year before some friends and I spent nearly a week in February in Key Largo, and we managed 2 days of diving because of the wind. Years ago, when I was only going to Florida for one week vacations, I once got in only 2 days of diving the whole week because of the wind.

In summary, if you are planning a trip to the Cozumel or especially Florida, yes, you do have a chance of of a hurricane, but it is a very, very small chance in comparison to the odds of getting blown out during the rest of the year.

You have the worst weather luck of anyone I know. Bar none. At least in Florida.

 

[boulderjohn]

You have the worst weather luck of anyone I know. Bar none. At least in Florida.

I didn't even mention my luck with cave diving. On about half my trips to the High Springs area (which are admittedly not that many), heavy rains have filled the rivers and backed up the caves, leaving usually only the Devil's Eye open to diving. On almost every trip to Marianna, the weather has been remarkably cold, making the shore times miserable. The last time I was in Mexico doing cave diving, the heavy rains made the dirt roads in the jungle nearly impassable, so we were mostly limited to the caves next to a paved road. The time before that earlier heavy rains had stirred up one of the caves so badly we couldn't dive them because of visibility.

I did a dive in Cozumel during which a storm hit while we were under water and put several dive boats under water, thankfully not ours.

My dive luck is not limited to weather. Most of the head colds I have had in the last few years have come during dive trips. That includes a month ago in Bali. I arrived in Thailand about a month after the big tsunami wiped everything out. I arrived in Aruba just after Natalie Holloway disappeared and stayed a few doors down from her hotel. Another trimix instructional trip was canceled this summer when a student's grandfather died.

I have honestly and truly come to assume that something is going to go wrong every time I plan a dive trip.

 

[mi000ke]

We have spend the last few years some where in the Caribbean and Mexican/Honduran coast in Sept-Nov period and it's been great. This year was a week in September on Grand Cayman. Beach was deserted, no crowds on the dive boats, very few ships in port. Easy to get dibs on dive sites and reservations in restaurants. Prices tend to be lower, and over the years we will be ahead even if we suffer some dollar losses due to cancellations,although those can be mitigated

 

[Bratface]

I live in the caribbean and was happy to avoid any major storms this year. I was in Cozumel and Playa diving the cenotes in October right after that last storm passed. Since we have to fly to Miami to get anywhere in the caribbean or the states, I was more concerned about the storm going up there then I was with it going to Cozumel.

 

[kixy1]

We were there in October last year and LOVED our first week! The weather was perfect;not too hot or humid, just enough warm breeze to keep you cool, calm, warm water and no crowds! NONE. It was a bit slower, a bit calmer, even the hawkers on the square just smiled and waved us on.

Then it started to rain. And it rained. Harder. Longer. For. Days. We finally gave in and came home early. It rained for weeks after we left!

That first week was so glorious I can't wait to spend time there in October again. The second week should make you all think twice and leave La Isla to me!

 

[BRT]

We have spent a lot of time in Q. Roo in November. Prices are lower and there are less people. Yes we have had diving cancelled for near hurricanes but we have had great diving too. Now we go in January but that is because it fits better with our businesses and breaks up the winter better. I like November better otherwise.

 

[ggunn]

IMO, the solution is the same as it is any other time of year - stay there longer. Weather related diving cancelations are usually of short duration no matter what month it is. A direct hit from a hurricane will be a problem no matter what, of course, but the odds of that happening during your trip are very low.

If in order to be considered a good vacation it has to include great diving every day you are there, you might not have the best plan. Weather can happen any time. The last time I was there we had a Norte that closed the port for a bit, and that was in mid May.

 

[mikeycanuk]

We've had decent luck in the summer. Once in. The costa maya a tropical storm passed and it was a wild night! While it passed quickly it's winds stuck around for too long so we decamped to Cancun a few days early. In Cayman Brac a large storm passed to the north but oddly an outter band storm blob (for use of a better term) seem to sit over the island for 2 days. It just didn't move!

 

[Dogbowl]

I think worry about hurricanes is rational. If someone is taking their whole family, with the costs involved and the hassles of matching everyone's vacation schedules, it's a big deal if a trip is blown out by hurricane.

However, for me, it's just me and my husband and our schedules are truly flexible, so we actually take advantage of the hurricane low season. We don't book ahead, we usually book several weeks out but even as close as one week out. We like to take advantage of the lower air & hotel prices, the thinner crowds, and the warmer water. If we get blown out, so be it. We'll try again!

 

[scubafanatic]

While it may be irrational due to the low probability of an actual Hurricane the fear is understandable. I have very flexible travel opportunities and visit the island often but I do not plan hard dates in October. My employer like many others forces me to pre-bid my following years vacation in advance and will not allow changes, this morning I submitted my bid for 2017. Many others are in the same situation but also have to align their vacation slot with their spouse’s vacation availability plus juggle children. It is understandable that even though it is a low probability they will avoid the peak Hurricane window of mid-September through late October. Luckily I also have a week of ‘personnel’ time which can be used for whatever. I will normally use this time in October since it is flexible.

As an example several weeks back I came down for 10 days and had complete flexibility on actual dates as far as flights, lodging and diving so in reality I could easily dodge an actual storm if it occurred. I spent the week and half before hand watching the ‘invest’ to tropical depression to hurricane Matthew develop and do its tortured path and possible swing back. Even though I really had nothing on the line it was still stressful. If it had been my only ‘use it or lose it’ vacation slot and I had a wife and possibly kids involved I would have been a nervous wreck. So while it may be irrational to avoid vacations in September and October in hindsight, looking forward it is understandable.

That being said I really enjoy the diving in September, October and November. Rain or shine the diving is always great.

It sounds like you and I may actually work for the same company. I have to go through a multi-phase bid' process via the company scheduling software, and all the choice traditional holidays are quickly exhausted, so I never schedule a trip around any major holiday as there's too much competition for those days off. No changes at all are permitted by the time we're in Q4 of the year for vacation days that same year. Phase 1 is seniority based, the other 'phases' are a free-for-all, first come, first served. After people have grabbed up all the major holidays, and then most of the Mondays and Fridays as well (creating long weekends) the bulk of the remaining 'unclaimed' days off will be assorted blocks of Tuesdays through Thursdays, can't build a dive vacation around such 'scraps'. Under these conditions I'm VERY conservative/careful about vacation scheduling during hurricane season, or 'norte season'.