Worry about Hurricanes—irrational?

[Dave Dillehay]

This season was predicted to be "active" for hurricanes. I wonder how many people avoided Cozumel out of an irrational fear of that. In fact only one storm even entered the eastern Caribbean and as predicted never got closer than 1000 miles to Coz. They missed out on what I feel is the best time to visit Cozumel, September and October. Just sayin!


Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

 

[Wookie]

They always do, Dave. Try running a liveaboard in Florida sometime. Same issue, the best time to come is right in the "heart" of hurricane season. I personally have started planning my dive trips for September and October. I cant get anyone on the boat, and other operators offer specials.

 

[gopbroek]

While it may be irrational due to the low probability of an actual Hurricane the fear is understandable. I have very flexible travel opportunities and visit the island often but I do not plan hard dates in October. My employer like many others forces me to pre-bid my following years vacation in advance and will not allow changes, this morning I submitted my bid for 2017. Many others are in the same situation but also have to align their vacation slot with their spouse’s vacation availability plus juggle children. It is understandable that even though it is a low probability they will avoid the peak Hurricane window of mid-September through late October. Luckily I also have a week of ‘personnel’ time which can be used for whatever. I will normally use this time in October since it is flexible.

As an example several weeks back I came down for 10 days and had complete flexibility on actual dates as far as flights, lodging and diving so in reality I could easily dodge an actual storm if it occurred. I spent the week and half before hand watching the ‘invest’ to tropical depression to hurricane Matthew develop and do its tortured path and possible swing back. Even though I really had nothing on the line it was still stressful. If it had been my only ‘use it or lose it’ vacation slot and I had a wife and possibly kids involved I would have been a nervous wreck. So while it may be irrational to avoid vacations in September and October in hindsight, looking forward it is understandable.

That being said I really enjoy the diving in September, October and November. Rain or shine the diving is always great.

 

[krbailey]

Cozumel,Mexico hurricanes

According to this site, Cozumel is statistically 1 year overdue.

 

[kelemvor]

This season was predicted to be "active" for hurricanes. I wonder how many people avoided Cozumel out of an irrational fear of that. In fact only one storm even entered the eastern Caribbean and as predicted never got closer than 1000 miles to Coz. They missed out on what I feel is the best time to visit Cozumel, September and October. Just sayin!

It seems to me that a fear of something predicted to be likely by professionals is a rational fear. I think pretty much everyone with a high school or better education is aware that meteorology is not an exact science.

Hurricanes may have missed coz this year but they hit other dive destinations hard. I would not have been a happy camper if I'd ignored the predictions and traveled to one of those hard hit destinations. Traveling to the Caribbean during hurricane season is definitely more risky than outside of hurricane season wouldn't you agree? If someone has the ability to schedule a dive vacation anytime of the year why not just do it during a time that's got less risk?

Sure, lots of people gamble against the odds every day. If not, state lotteries wouldn't exist. It's a big difference when you're gambling $2 on a lottery ticket vs your annual vacation+thousands of dollars. You weigh the risk, and certainly weather predictions should be a factor in travel considerations.

I'm curious why you think hurricane season is the best time to visit Coz? Posts like When is the Best Time to Visit/Dive Cozumel? and Cozumel FAQ's - Weather, Water temps, Dive Operators, Taxis, and More seem to indicate the best time would be roughly winter/spring.


ra·tion·al
ˈraSH(ə)n(ə)l/
adjective
adjective: rational
1.
based on or in accordance with reason or logic.
"I'm sure there's a perfectly rational explanation"
synonyms: logical, reasoned, sensible, reasonable, cogent, intelligent, judicious, shrewd, common-sense, commonsensical, sound, prudent; More

 

[Dave Dillehay]

In January 2001 there were 21 out of 31 days that the port was closed to diving at some level. There were many people who spent their entire vacation there landlocked—because of nortes (north winds). In the so called high season there are nortes every month and the water is cold. In September and October there is virtually no chance of a norte, the water is still warm and the crowds are thinned out. May June is pretty good as well.

The odds of a hurricane are so low that my dive op offers free dive insurance. The terms of which are pretty generous.

But all of this is just my opinion—25 years worth.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

 

[scubafanatic]

They always do, Dave. Try running a liveaboard in Florida sometime. Same issue, the best time to come is right in the "heart" of hurricane season. I personally have started planning my dive trips for September and October. I cant get anyone on the boat, and other operators offer specials.

Didn't Dave offer one of those 'specials', which may well have pulled divers away from diving in Florida ? just sayin'

 

[Wookie]

Dave's client probably isn't my client. I dive land based, therefore I dive with Dave or another land based op.

 

[northernone]

According to the oldest diver from the island we're safe for this season. Next year or two due for a large hit with his 7 decades of watching the cycle.

 

[boulderjohn]

If you check my profile, you will see that I have been in a pretty fair number of places over the years, and I was in a lot of them during hurricane season. I did have a September Florida trip wiped out by a hurricane about a decade ago. I have also been lucky, diving in Australia, the Philippines, and the Caymans within days of hurricanes. Other than that one hurricane in Florida, all my other days lost to bad weather (and there have been many) were outside of the hurricane season. A few of those have been diving in the winter in Cozumel, and all of the rest were in Florida.

I have been in the Pensacola area for a total of 11 days over the years, ready to dive the Oriskany, and never done it once. This past March I had two students schedule flights to stay in the Pompano Beach area with me for a week to get their trimix certifications, but, nope, too windy all week. The year before some friends and I spent nearly a week in February in Key Largo, and we managed 2 days of diving because of the wind. Years ago, when I was only going to Florida for one week vacations, I once got in only 2 days of diving the whole week because of the wind.

In summary, if you are planning a trip to the Cozumel or especially Florida, yes, you do have a chance of of a hurricane, but it is a very, very small chance in comparison to the odds of getting blown out during the rest of the year.