Will COZ close it’s borders?

[WetInPortland]

We aren't seeing cases because Mexico is doing very little testing. I agree with Jen that there are most likely a large number of unreported/uncomfirmed case in Cozumel. I would equate this situation to a diver making one dive at Palancar, not seeing any lion fish and then declaring the park lion fish free.

Mexico could become the new Italy of coronavirus — or worse

I'm not going to say the number of COVID-19 cases on the island is zero - full stop.

However, if, as you surmise, there are a, "large number of unreported/uncomfirmed [sic] case [sic] in Cozumel", why are we not hearing reports of illness? It seems very unlikely that such news would not spread quickly. If you accept my premise, that suggests three possibilities (1) there are very few cases on the island currently, (2) there are the large number of cases in your premise but they have not presented yet, which seems unlikely with a ~5 day incubation period, or (3) all the cases are of the mild / asymptomatic variety; also unlikely.

"Tens of thousands" of Cozumeleños are not attending concerts here. It's been a couple of weeks since the cruise ships stopped coming, and the number of tourists is dwindling fast. Extrapolating what's happening in Mexico City and projecting that onto Cozumel doesn't seem terribly useful.

I have little doubt that COVID-19 will arrive on Cozumel and that a large number of people will ultimately be affected. Let's just take the proper precautions until then and not rush it, OK? Mexico City may not be able to flatten their curve, but I'm hoping that little Cozumel can.

 

[ggunn]

Looking for silver linings...

I have been going fishing in the waters between Cozumel and the mainland for many years; my first trip was in 1978 (I didn't start diving until the 1990's), always in April/May when the dorado are running and the migratory billfish are in the area. That's why there are so many tournaments that time of year.

Over the past years the fishing has been declining, at least in my narrow sample size of three or four days fishing a year, and I surmise it's at least partially due to me and folks like me. It occurs to me that maybe giving the fish a break this year may make the fishing (or more specifically, the catching) better next year. Hope springs eternal.

 

[RayfromTX]

We aren't seeing cases because Mexico is doing very little testing. I agree with Jen that there are most likely a large number of unreported/uncomfirmed case in Cozumel. I would equate this situation to a diver making one dive at Palancar, not seeing any lion fish and then declaring the park lion fish free.

Mexico could become the new Italy of coronavirus — or worse

They are testing people on the island that present with symptoms. I can ask again but as of last week the only people that had presented with symptoms were foreigners and all tested negative.

 

[WetInPortland]

I think it's worth a little more elaboration on the Vox article, Mexico could become the Next Itlay, or Worse, particularly with respect to Cozumel. The article is generally critical of AMLO's limited response to the virus, but that's not what happening in Cozumel. Cruise ships are gone. Tourists are either gone or almost so. Some service workers are returning to familial homes on the mainland because of lack of work. Even some permanent residents have left the island. Hotels, restaurants, beach clubs, and dive operators are closed. Grocery stores have hours set aside for seniors only.

Cozumel may have gotten lucky, not taking the pandemic seriously until the cruise ships stopped coming, which seemed to be a big wake-up call. The mayors and governors seem to be taking things much more seriously, ordering bars and restaurants to carry out/take away only, and imposing curfews. Hopefully those measures will help a lot. So far there are not a lot of reported cases, and one would think that a lot of sick people would be news that would spread even faster than the virus. So if Cozumel dodged a bullet until now, and is now hand washing, social distancing, and quarantining, there is some hope that the curve in Cozumel could be flatter than elsewhere.

I don't doubt that there are serious problems in parts of Mexico. But remember that Mexico is a big country, roughtly equivalent to the eastern 1/3 of the USA. One shouldn't use too broad a brush to paint the picture. The title of this thread is, "Will Coz Close its Borders?" There may not be a wall, but there aren't very many incentives to come here right now. The effect may be the same. And that's probably a good thing.

 

[ggunn]

They are testing people on the island that present with symptoms. I can ask again but as of last week the only people that had presented with symptoms were foreigners and all tested negative.

One person living alone as a hermit on an island with no contact at all with anyone has nothing to worry about from the coronavirus. People living cheek to jowl in hive type surroundings are under serious risk of infection. Most of us lie somewhere on the continuum between the extremes; if Cozumel has shut down its contact exposure early enough it will likely lie nearer the good end of the spectrum than the bad. Here's hoping.

 

[horn34]

They are testing people on the island that present with symptoms. I can ask again but as of last week the only people that had presented with symptoms were foreigners and all tested negative.

What percentage of Cozumel residents actually go to the hospital when they have the flu? The one's I know (a small but diversified age group) don't go to the hospital unless they think death is knocking at the door.

 

[RayfromTX]

New information.

Three highly suspected cases on the island now waiting for test results. They are out of tests at the hospital now. Please don't go to the island. They have extremely limited resources. This is coming from my friend that is a doctor on the island. She asked me to post this here.

 

[horn34]

New information.

Three highly suspected cases on the island now waiting for test results. They are out of tests at the hospital now. Please don't go to the island. They have extremely limited resources. This is coming from my friend that is a doctor on the island. She asked me to post this here.

Scarcity of test kits in Mexico was another issue mentioned in the linked articles that really concerned me.

 

[JFS]

What percentage of Cozumel residents actually go to the hospital when they have the flu? The one's I know (a small but diversified age group) don't go to the hospital unless they think death is knocking at the door.

Well said. My wife is Mexican and that's exactly how most feel here. The virus is on the island no doubt about it.

 

[scubadada]

I wonder how the testing is done, obtained and sent to the mainland for completion?