Don Burke once bubbled...
Less stable. ...and the shallower you are, the worse it is.
Don't forget that most of the volume change comes in the top 33 feet. If we found a hole deep enough to squash that bubble to zero (impossible, but humor me), half of the volume change would be in the first 33 feet. In the real world, it always works out that more than half of the volume change is in the top 33 feet.
If you get your BC inflated with a bubble to displace the required 15 pounds of water at 15 feet, if a wave takes you up to 12 feet, the bubble displaces 15.98 pounds, making you light and taking you the wrong way.
If a wave pushes you down to 18 feet, the bubble will displace 14.08 pounds, making you heavy and taking you the wrong way.
You said "correctly attributed". I think you meant "correctly distributed". Plus or minus a little belt slip, the weight will stay where you put it. The bubble won't. If you put your head down, the bubble runs toward your butt, trying to force you head down. If you bring your head up, the bubble runs toward your head, trying to force you upright.
...and that extra 15 pounds of mass, once moving, makes it harder to correct yourself because it is moving the wrong way. If you live by inertia, you might die by inertia.
If you were talking about bringing a neutrally buoyant camera housing that weighed 15 pounds, we would be having a different discussion. That would give you some extra mass, but no changing buoyancy, which is the real problem with overweighting.
I have no doubt that in a world where waves move you 30 ft in a water column, or where air "shifts" enough in a BC to effect trim, or where shallow is greater than 33 ft, you're on the money.
You have a degree, don't you.