When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Angelo Farina]

No one was suspecting anything unusual in Italy in Dec 2019.

Exactly, nothing anomalous or suspect in December and in January. Just a number of viral pneumonia, a phenomenon which happens here every 3-5 years. Normal.
The time was lost in February, when the virus was spreading undetected. It was just 2 weeks, but they have been critical, making the infection to spread.
Also looking at the monthly number of deaths, nothing was anomalous until the end of February. Then in March suddenly the number of deaths duplicated in comparison with the average of deaths in March in previous 5 years...
So, considering the latency between infection and severe symptoms, it means that the wide circulation of the virus started at end of January, or the first days of February, but was detected only on 20th February.
If we had been more lucky (or had made more tests) it could have been discovered around 4-5 February instead of 20 February.

 

[Dan]

I look over the CV-19 and world population statistics (see the link, below). I think every country in this world needs to learn from China in how to flatten the curve.

Coronavirus - Covid-19 World Wide on-line statistics

Population by Country (2020) - Worldometer

Here is my reason. If we estimate the number of deaths due to CV-19 per a million of capita, as of today (8 April, 2020), the statistic shows:

1. Spain = 297.2
2. Italy = 283.3
3. France = 136.5
4. UK = 90.7
5. Iran = 46.1
6. USA = 37.0
7. China = 2.3

Then we'll know when this virus related disruption will end.

Apparently Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea seem to do that.
Hong Kong = 0.5
Singapore = 1.0
South Korea = 3.7

Indonesia (0.8) looks low too, but that could be due to it is just in the beginning of the curve. Geographic location, being in warmer climate, could affect the spreading. Hopefully that could be the case and by end of May the curve (in most of the countries) could start to go downhill.

 

[BRT]

I look over the CV-19 and world population statistics (see the link, below). I think every country in this world needs to learn from China in how to flatten the curve.

Coronavirus - Covid-19 World Wide on-line statistics

Population by Country (2020) - Worldometer

Here is my reason. If we estimate the number of deaths due to CV-19 per a million of capita, as of today (8 April, 2020), the statistic shows:

1. Spain = 297.2
2. Italy = 283.3
3. France = 136.5
4. UK = 90.7
5. Iran = 46.1
6. USA = 37.0
7. China = 2.3

Then we'll know when this virus related disruption will end.

No question that China is good at flattening the curve. If we had controlled news and internet our government could flatten it better too. North Korea is the best though.

 

[Dan]

No question that China is good at flattening the curve. If we had controlled news and internet our government could flatten it better too. North Korea is the best though.

So, what would be the reason for Singapore (1.0), Hong Kong (0.5) and South Korea (3.7) in keeping the numbers low? I don't think those countries control the news and internet.

 

[Angelo Farina]

So, what would be the reason for Singapore (1.0), Hong Kong (0.5) and South Korea (3.7) in keeping the numbers low? I don't think those countries control the news and internet.

Those countries had already faced SARS and other epidemics, so they were prepared. In some of them (HK, Korea, Japan) the usage of masks is widespread also for normal flu, and was boosted as soon as there was the minimal suspect that Covid-19 was around.
Finally, the number of deaths related to COVID-19 is totally unreliable, as shown even here in Italy. The only reliable metrics is the total number of deaths in a month, compared to the average deaths in the same month of the previous 5 years.
Looking at that, the number of additional deaths here in North Italy in March has been twice the normal number. In some towns as Bergamo and Brescia it had been 4 times the normal.
See here: How Many People Really Die From Covid-19? Lessons From Italy
Unfortunately this datum is not available for many countries. I suspect that these numbers would be terrifying...

 

[BRT]

So, what would be the reason for Singapore (1.0), Hong Kong (0.5) and South Korea (3.7) in keeping the numbers low? I don't think those countries control the news and internet.

The Asian Countries That Beat Covid-19 Have to Do It Again

You may notice that the story mentions the fact that we all live in the same world. Unlike China they kept control, but everytime they release control they will have the same risk until enough people are immune.

 

[michael-fisch]

Herd immunity will take effect as soon as 60% of the population has had it, or was immunized.
Currently each person with Covid-19 is infecting 3-4 others. To be successful that infection rate has to stay below 1.

Michael

 

[outofofficebrb]

@Dan Testing per capita is also relevant. Indonesia isn’t testing very many people per capita compared to the other places. The per capita testing might also skew the per capita fatality rate as well.

 

[Umuntu]

Herd immunity will take effect as soon as 60% of the population has had it, or was immunized.
Currently each person with Covid-19 is infecting 3-4 others. To be successful that infection rate has to stay below 1.

Michael

and after all our beloved elderly, diabetic, asthmatic or obese relatives and friends have caught it and either survived or passed on ... ?

 

[Outbound]

I look over the CV-19 and world population statistics (see the link, below). I think every country in this world needs to learn from China in how to flatten the curve.

Coronavirus - Covid-19 World Wide on-line statistics

Population by Country (2020) - Worldometer

Here is my reason. If we estimate the number of deaths due to CV-19 per a million of capita, as of today (8 April, 2020), the statistic shows:

1. Spain = 297.2
2. Italy = 283.3
3. France = 136.5
4. UK = 90.7
5. Iran = 46.1
6. USA = 37.0
7. China = 2.3

Then we'll know when this virus related disruption will end.

Apparently Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea seem to do that.
Hong Kong = 0.5
Singapore = 1.0
South Korea = 3.7

Indonesia (0.8) looks low too, but that could be due to it is just in the beginning of the curve. Geographic location, being in warmer climate, could affect the spreading. Hopefully that could be the case and by end of May the curve (in most of the countries) could start to go downhill.

I don't trust the Chinese data enough to base anything on it. First of all, they were actively discounting asymptomatic positive cases. Also, their test produces a lot of false negatives. Lastly, the regime itself is not known for being very open. They sat on the SARS outbreak, and we only heard about it when it started hitting Hong Kong. They did the same with COVID-19. Then there is the re-opening and the massive rush of people who went to that mountain park yesterday. Something like 20,000 people crowded together.

And don't even get me started on the fact that Beijing authorities never cracked down on the wet markets like they were supposed to in the wake of the SARS epidemic in 2003.