When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Dan]

It looks like we have enough

As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again

I have 2 more trips in July and Oct which I'm hopeful but not convinced can go ahead as planned. Wait and see for now

I think rebooking to 2021 is obviously the safe choice but will you try your luck doing anything earlier?

There's also a lot of 50% off deals now

I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week

What do you think?

It looks like now we have enough data for predicting when this pandemic will end:

Data-Driven Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic End Dates

 

[Centrals]

Anyone asking this Coronavirus about this prediction?

 

[CWK]

It looks like we have enough


It looks like now we have enough data for predicting when this pandemic will end:

Data-Driven Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic End Dates

GIGO.

You can always model based on available data but data for countries that have not done enough testing may not be reliable. Also, they are using a normal curve when there may be reasons that a skewed curve may be more appropriate. I believe that Dr Birx said yesterday that the right side of the curve may be flatter than the left side.

 

[BRT]

100% huh?

 

[Dan]

GIGO.

You can always model based on available data but data for countries that have not done enough testing may not be reliable. Also, they are using a normal curve when there may be reasons that a skewed curve may be more appropriate. I believe that Dr Birx said yesterday that the right side of the curve may be flatter than the left side.

This is your country data. Does it look like GIGO? If yes, Malaysia government has been providing garbage data.

 

[Dan]

Here are data & predictions from other countries.

 

[CWK]

This is your country data. Does it look like GIGO? If yes, Malaysia government has been providing garbage data.

View attachment 583537

Yes. GIGO.

There are data anomalies in the Malaysian Government’s data. One assumption that the model will be making is that infections are domestic. Yesterday, the Malaysian government announced 94 new cases, of which 22 were local transmissions and 72 of which were Malaysians returning from Indonesia. Today the government announced 57 new cases of which 32 were local infections and 25 were travellers.

The government provides raw data and sometimes gives explanations for spikes. Raw data that is put into the model without adjustments may be considered garbage because the analyst has not treated the data correctly.

There may be other types of data anomalies.

 

[Dan]

Yes. GIGO.

There are data anomalies in the Malaysian Government’s data. One assumption that the model will be making is that infections are domestic. Yesterday, the Malaysian government announced 94 new cases, of which 22 were local transmissions and 72 of which were Malaysians returning from Indonesia. Today the government announced 57 new cases of which 32 were local infections and 25 were travellers.

The government provides raw data and sometimes gives explanations for spikes. Raw data that is put into the model without adjustments may be considered garbage because the analyst has not treated the data correctly.

There may be other types of data anomalies.

I think that GIGO math modeling is the same source that you posted earlier in the other thread:
What is happening in Singapore right now?, page 11, post #101

Mathematical modelling. Take with a pinch of salt. https://people.sutd.edu.sg/jianxi_luo/public_html/COVID19PredictionTable20200426.pdf

 

[Dan]

100% huh?

My guess is they round up 99.6% to 100%. Looking at the data noises, the error may be +/- 1% considering so many variables coming into the data. The model seems to normalize the data into a normal distribution curve, which may not be normal. It might be skewed / spreading wider to the later date if we are loosening the social distancing too soon and generating the "second wave" pandemic.

 

[Dan]

One thing that I can see from the data is at what stage of the pandemic each country relative to the world, as shown below.