When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[chillyinCanada]

Without reading all the responses...1 to 4 months depending on how the news incites a panic.

If everyone would stay home we could be done pretty quickly and back to normal.

In other words, it would be a good thing if everyone paid attention to the news and stayed home.

 

[chillyinCanada]

Look at Germany for instance where they perform 500.000 tests par week and their death rate is <<1% the lowest recorded. So it all depends on the number of cases found by testing. Btw Germany and Korea experiences probably help finding the actual death rate of the virus, which is probably lower than said.
This is the same case here in France where we have even less tests than Italy. and the death rate is higher than asian countries but slightly lower than in Italy, although we have the same beds/people ratio.
I believe there is also a demographic factor that doesn't help on top of limited tests, Italy has one of the oldest population in Europe which is already an old continent compared to Asia for instance. That's the problem of living a long life....

Aren't results from countries that learned from Italy, naturally going to be lesser?

 

[Jcp2]

It’s unclear whether the differences in death rates from COVID-19 across regions is only because of differences in policy and treatment, or differences in attribution. If one requires laboratory evidence of COVID-19 of disease in one region, but not in others, then the reported rates will be different without necessarily being really different. France had a big jump in rates when they added in deaths in nursing homes, not just deaths in hospitals. The individual mortality rate for life is 100%, so a better judgment of the effect of the pandemic in any area is a comparison of the number of deaths over a fixed period of time versus the same historical period of time in the absence of the pandemic to capture both the direct and indirect effects of the virus. For instance, we are running into issues of patients requiring dialysis. They are in a vulnerable position, but some dialysis centers won’t accept them if they have a fever unless they test negative for COVID-19. A fever is common in patients requiring dialysis. We have such a limited number of tests that we are trying to reserve them only for patients that will be hospitalized so we can sort them properly. What to do? We have patients that require blood transfusions on a chronic outpatient basis. There are safety and licensing requirements around blood such that they have to come into the hospital for the transfusion if they want to have it done here but now it’s not safe to do so because we are essentially a COVID-19 facility. The other hospitals with dedicated transfusion units have dismantled their nursing staffing to staff their own COVID-19 units. What to do? We have stopped all non essential surgery because we’re using many of the anesthesia ventilators for COVID-19 patients, yet I know acute appendicitis and acute diverticulitis and acute cholecystitis is still happening in the community. I don’t see those cases making it into the hospital at the same rate. Where did they go?

 

[Luko]

. France had a big jump in rates when they added in deaths in nursing homes, not just deaths in hospitals.

France did not include mortality from EHPADs (nursing homes) until now (2 days ago actually) unlike Italy who chose to do so from the beginning I believe.
Sorry for sounding cynical, those specific nursing homes have a life expectancy below 4 years when entering. Should they be taken into account or not? (this is a rethorical question, pls don't answer.)

 

[Angelo Farina]

The individual mortality rate for life is 100%, so a better judgment of the effect of the pandemic in any area is a comparison of the number of deaths over a fixed period of time versus the same historical period of time in the absence of the pandemic to capture both the direct and indirect effects of the virus.

This is really the only reliable metric, at this point, all other numbers are biased.
And these data, comparing the deaths of this March-2020 with the average deaths of March of previous 5 years has been just released by the Italian Statistics Institute (ISTAT).
In March, the number of deaths doubled on average in the whole North Italy, with peaks in two Italian towns (Bergamo and Brescia), where the number of deaths was over 4 times larger than in previous years:
Coronavirus: Deaths doubled in north Italy in March says ISTAT - English

 

[Centrals]

Current practice here is to make a bacterial culture in case of bacterial pneumonia, for evaluating the best antibiotic, which does not give resistance.
But in case of a viral pneumonia no test is done, as it does not change the therapy.
This strategy will possibly change in future, of course...

If they did not carry the test in the beginning. How could they tell whether it was virus or bacteria that caused the pneumonia and treated accordingly. Antibiotic for bacteria and others for virus.

 

[divinh]

If they did not carry the test in the beginning. How could they tell whether it was virus or bacteria that caused the pneumonia and treated accordingly. Antibiotic for bacteria and others for virus.

I think he's saying that the therapy/treatment for viral pneumonia is the same, whether it's Covid-19 or another virus. From what I've read, viral infections need to run their course, whereas bacterial ones can be treated with antibiotics.

Oh, and if they test for bacteria and it comes back negative, the therapy will be for viral.

 

[Centrals]

Two different types of treatment.
You have to establish what caused the illness FIRST before applying the treatment.
If you have unusual high number of viral causing pneumonia, you would sit up and take notice. This was what Dr. Li did and warned his colleagues. The rest is history.

 

[StefinSB]

China is already returning to normal. The dire predictions of Doom are in my view, incorrect.

All will be fine by June or even earlier in most areas.

No. It won't.

 

[nippurmagnum]

It's not happening over the course of a year. That's the problem everywhere

True. But the flu also doesn’t happen evenly throughout a year — it’s seasonal, and also follows a curve.