My son was hit by lightning. Twice. In both cases he was not the highest object in the immediate vicinity nor would one think he was the most electrically conductive.
The first time, he was indoors, watching a storm through the closed window. He had wanted to go outside and play in the rain, but I told him it was unsafe to be outside because of the lightning. I told him he would have to watch this storm through the window. I was seated within 2' with my back to him. His brother was standing beside him, a foot to the west. My sister was 16' away, walking towards him. There was a huge bang, my sister cried out, I spun around and caught him as he fell over backwards, stiff as a board. The carpet at his feet, laid on a wooden subfloor suspended on wooden joists, was smoking and my sister said she saw a flash or ball of light at his feet at the moment of the thunder. Outside that same exterior wall, 5' west from the edge of the window, was a 30' tall television antennae tower, properly grounded. 25' northwest was a tall tree, approximately 40' in height. Our guess is that the tower played some sort of role in attracting the lightning, but we have no idea how it struck him inside the house or how his brother, standing closer to the tower, and I, on his other side, were missed.
I did not witness the second instance, but many years later he was loading a truck. There were gathering clouds and distant rumbles, but no sign of lightning anywhere in the area. He was 1/2 way along a 12' metal loading ramp between the 2 story building and the metal-bodied truck carrying a commercial display stand constructed primarily of metal. In this case, we suspect that even though the vehicle was both a better conducter and taller, and the building was much higher still, the wire racks were a sharper point than the flat roof of the truck, making it a more efficient electrode. (Spark plug manufacturers have demonstrated that a finer point is more efficient).
Based on these experiences, I don't think it is possible to accurately predict exactly where lightning is going to strike. Just because you are not the tallest object around does not make you immune. Just because the storm is not directly overhead does not make you immune. Being indoors behind glass is no guarantee of safety either, so I sure wouldn't want to take my chances climbing in or out of the water wearing a nice pointy tank valve on my back.
Just my 2¢.