How common is over breathing a properly packed scrubber?
I can't give you a number, but the point is that there are two ways of developing hypercapnea - scrubber bypass (e.g. an improperly packed scrubber), and CO2 overproduction (e.g. suddenly having to do a lot more work, like someone caught in a downcurrent, as you mentioned upthread). If the problem is overbreathing, that means that the scrubber itself was not the problem. The fact that you personally were able to avoid hypercapnea with sudden unanticipated extra exertion in that specific instance doesn't mean that overbreathing isn't a thing.
How often do flapper valves fail?
No idea, I was just thinking of that duckweed report that I read a while ago (foreign object got into the downstream valve, keeping it from sealing).
I’ve been diving RBs a long time and never had either of those 2 things happen.
Well, there you go. Survivor bias.
In my small sample of people that I actually know, I have lost two well trained and experienced friends who were diving CCR. In both cases, it was never clear what the exact sequence of events was, but people who have had CO2 hits describe being barely able to bail out (the argument for BOVs).
Look, you have a lot more experience than I do. And I'm not one of those people who know nothing about CCRs but go on and on about how they involve completely unacceptable risk. I also understand that CCR removes some OC risks. And I love my JJ.
I just don't think that you should imply that it is impossible to have a CCR catastrophe if you always do the right thing, because the point is that human beings - even really skilled and well trained ones - occasionally don't do the right thing. That's why I have been pushing to
change rebreather culture about checklists. The point is that even the most well trained and experienced diver is running on human brain software, and we all can have occasional failures of that system. If you are sick, hungry, angry, dealing with an emergency, or whatever.
So yes, if you never make a mistake, it's pretty unlikely that your rebreather itself will do you in. I just don't think that your position is a good one to promote to OC divers considering making the switch to CCR.