Tropical Disturbance Moving Toward Coz

[Snoweman]

That’s a cover my ass forecast for regions of Florida south from June till End of Sept in perpetuity.......a bit longer in the Caribbean.

Here is @Christi's response to my weather worries:

A few tips:

1. Delete your weather apps they are useless for Cozumel. They are never accurate for the entire island.
2. Forecasts are not really to be relied on here. One part of the island can get no rain, the north may get rain every day for 8 days and centro can get just some showers. Some at night, some in the AM, some in the PM. Any combination or the reverse scenario can be true too.
   
3. Don’t make your plans around what the weather forecast is - go with the flow and enjoy your vacation regardless of the weather - there's not a thing you can do about it. Make plans as you normally would then change if necessary - NOTE: Rain does not matter for diving - you're going to get wet.
   
4. Cozumel is in the tropics - hence the term "tropical weather" (ie: tropical depression, tropical storm, tropical disturbance) - the word tropical is a descriptive word which refers to the geographic area - NOT the severity of a weather system.
5. When the forecast says rain or even thunderstorms - that means that it may rain at some point during the day on some part of the island for some period of time - usually about an hour or less in the afternoon and then it's done
6. Refer back to #1

 

[Snoweman]

If she says differently, then I will listen.

 

[Streydog]

If she says differently, then I will listen.

Here is @Christi's response to my weather worries:

That's the case for normal weather patterns with scattered storms. On the National Hurricane Center site it states to expect torrential rains over the Yucatan peninsula over the next few days.

 

[Dogbowl]

That's the case for normal weather patterns with scattered storms. On the National Hurricane Center site it states to expect torrential rains over the Yucatan peninsula over the next few days.

I have been in a truck in the Yucatan in torrential rains heading towards a cenote dive. It was scary and I thought we were going to get into an accident (die actually but I kept that thought to myself). I never saw rain like that before. It came down in sheets of water, not large drops.

 

[CajunDiva]

Tuesday you can expect heavy thunderstorms and a wind of 15+ mph out of the south, with 4 ft. waves. If you can enjoy those dives, go for it

Normally, I would take what Christi says as the gospel. But this is an organized storm that will probably receive tropical depression status by the time it reaches the Cozumel area. Tropical depressions behave in a more predictable way...

 

[Christi]

I am trying to figure out what "tropical disturbance" you are referring to? It is rainy season in Cozumel, so yes, very typical to have some showers or heavy rain for short periods of time this time of year - but between windguru, NOAA and Wunderground severe weather, I don't see anything that concerns me at all - and there is no discussion of any weather watches in our ANOAAT members group.

In general, cancelling prior to 24 hours out is typically premature - unless we have a strong Hurricane with very strong likelihood of making a DIRECT hit on us. The airlines will always cancel and offer rebooking at no penalty if you wait until there is a real threat and they offer that.

Cancelling a trip for this weekend is not warranted by anything I see.

 

[dberry]

I've been diving in Coz in the rain - no big deal (except less sunlight is a bummer). HOWEVER, our return flight to MIA was delayed for 2-3 hours due to T-storms, causing us to miss our connection in MIA and having to spend the night in an airport hotel.

 

[horn34]

Yeah, I don't mind the rain, it's the loss of sunshine and visibility that sucks.

 

[George Monnat Jr]

I love Windy.com

Windy as forecasted

 

[flyboy08]

We had a few passing showers last week, but nothing that kept us from splashing. Some horrendous T-Storms went passing at night, but by day, it was scattered at best. Whats funny is seeing folks exit the water from a dive and then try and hide from the rain drops