Travel to Indonesia

[Indah]

I know conditions in Indonesia are very different. But my guesstimate is not based on current covid cases.
With current vaccination rates (about 0.25% of the population getting vaccinated per day on average) and 17% of the population received at least one dose so far, it will take about 4 months to reach 50%. Around that point, high daily covid cases will continue, but serious cases and deaths decrease a lot (as it has been seen in several other countries). Hence somewhere there things tend to go back to "almost" normal, I hope.

2 months ago nobody could believe the situation right now would be that good here - but yes it is that good. Covid is not finished, people (mostly unvaccinated) are hospitalized and some of them die but the rest of us can go on with our lives, finally.

Wish you are right. But how long will it take until many people want to take the risk of sudden changes in policy in their home countries? How long until Indonesia will be considered as a safe enough place tot travel to? Most of the visitors used to come from Singapore, Malaysia and China.

 

[Dan]

does anyone really think that things will be better in 2022? LOL!

I do. Based on what India went through, as shown, below. Delta variant devastated the country with death toll about 3x of the first wave. It took 4 months (March-July) for the country to get over it.

Indonesia seems to follow India with about 4-month delay. Death toll from Delta variant was also as much as 3 times of the first wave. It seems the peak has been reached about 2 weeks ago, as shown, below. It now starts to go down hill to the baseline. If the India’s Delta variant wave of 4-month period, were reproduced in Indonesia’s Delta variant wave, my crystal ball says Indonesia could get over the Delta variant wave by November.

 

[drrich2]

India is a single land mass; Indonesia is an island archipelago nation. I wonder how the 'broken' up nature (i.e.: the land mass interrupted by ocean) impacts the rate and extent of transmission? In theory it might spare some localities, but then again, it might drag out the rate at which Delta gets around.

 

[Dan]

60% of Indonesian live in Java & 20% live in Sumatra.

 

[Joe2518]

my understanding is that the covid situation in India is probably 2 or 3x as bad as stated. So it would seem that between a country that has covid running rampant like india and the united states with not such a great vaccination rates... how can there not be an E variant that will be worse?

I thought this would have been wrapping up by now but it seems we are going to continue having new waves of covid possibly for years to come :/

 

[Dan]

Nowadays with easy transportation and commerce between countries and major islands within Indonesia, sea separation does not seem to prevent the spreading of such highly contagious diseases. Just look at the eerie similarity of the Delta variant impact on both countries.

India

Indonesia

 

[tridacna]

If only prediction was that easy @Dan

I do this for a living and don't have nearly the confidence that you do. India is a major producer of vaccines. Comparing to Indo is a fool's task. I hope that you have good insurance for those trips or are able to reschedule them (again).

 

[Dan]

Time will tell. We’ll see what happens in November-December.

I do have travel insurance and no problem in rescheduling my August 2021 trip to Indonesia to August 2022, so far (knock on wood).

 

[JohnN]

I'm in the same dilemma. Here is the last "official" wish about reopening I could find:
Indonesia targets September reopening as it extends curbs until next week

I fear this is more speculative than based on any plan or fact, but I remain hopeful.

I'm scheduled to start my bucket list trip in Komodo on Oct 30

 

[tridacna]

Time will tell. We’ll see what happens in November-December.

I do have travel insurance and no problem in rescheduling my August 2021 trip to Indonesia to August 2022, so far (knock on teak).

Fixed that for you!