The Swine Flu thing...

[lamont]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8). That IS NOT a staggering number. Of those deaths, it is also reported that they suffered from other underlying health issues as well. The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything.

I'm not sure where your comparison with diving comes in there.

As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions.

Confirmed death toll is up to 16 now.

And obviously, 8-9 people didn't just die in the last 24h in mexico, but 8-9 of the suspected cases were confirmed, and there's a long lag time to due to the process of getting the cases laboratory confirmed.

The suspected deaths in Mexico now has been reduced from ~160 down to 101.

...

Also, with 162 confirmed cases in the US and no cytokine storming or dead adults, it is becoming pretty clear that this isn't a 1918-style flu epidemic. Still some precautions to keep the novel virus from spreading in vulnerable communities to give some time for a vaccine to be developed is prudent. There's still a window of about 6 months before a vaccine for this virus is developed and during which it can spread and kill in vulnerable commnities -- and that simply includes children. Go and explain to the parents of the 22-month old child who died in TX that this is just 'normal' influenza so they shouldn't feel bad about it.

There's a balance that needs to be struck between hysteria and practicality, but I have to say that I support some of the school closures around here in order to slow down the spread of the virus and give time for a vaccine to get developed. The kids in those school are most at risk of getting seriously ill, and if we send them home when one of the kids gets sick then we can slow it down, and reduce the numbers, which will reduce the numbers of deaths and give time to for a vaccine to get produced. The logic that becaue the flu normally kills 36,000 people a year that it doesn't matter at all is actually backwards -- because the flu normally kills 36,000 people a year that means that a lot of people are at risk, and if we do something to slow the spread of this virus before a vaccine is developed that means that we save a lot of people -- and only some of those people are the elderly who might just die a couple months later when whatever else they're sick with catches up with them -- some of them are just young children without fully formed immune systems...

 

[don Francisco]

Absolutely, measured responses and efforts to isolate pockets where this strain is confirmed or even suspected on good evidence are justifiable, intellegent responses to limit the spread of this outbreak.

But that's in stark contrast to the "sky is falling" paranoia which seems to br reflected in some of these posts. It makes sense to take reasonable precautions when travelling, especially divers planning a one week trip because even a cold or mild flu is enough to mess up a dive trip. On the other hand, shifting destinations away from Cozumel isn't likely to make any difference based on the evidence at hand.

I'm not suggesting any course of action, but I do wish that folks wouldn't fan the flames of fear and paranoia based on unwarrantedly pessimistic interpretations of what little data there is.

Based on what's known, as opposed to rumored, Cozumel as a destination is OK with regard to H1N1, but getting there through crowded US airports might be less so.

 

[DandyDon]

That's fine DF. Some of the "everything is fine" posts have been insulting, and - if we cannot have a free exchange of ideas, opinions, and facts, we may as well tell Pete to shut down the forums.

Cozumel has its own site. Maybe we don't even need then one if only opinions approved by locals are allowed here...?

 

[Prop Joe]

And - you're not interested in the 26 minute video by a renown doctor in the field either, right...?

Nope.

Sure the press screw up facts. So nice that we can access CDC, WHO, etc sites - if one bothers to do so.

Actually I do not have any selfish interest here. I'm over 60, the immune generation.

Don, No insult intended BTW. I work in the aviation field where the press gives out so much miss information about many things, accidents, airplane types, noises, flames, eyewitness accounts, etc... It has made me ignore many things the press reports on. Just my jaded view of the situation. I would rather draw up my own conclusions from my own sources of information. Like you said above... CDC, WHO, or even my own personal doctor...
I just don't like what the general press chooses to broadcast. That is just me.
I would still go to Cozumel if I could get the time off of work.

 

[DandyDon]

And I'm sure some will say they know more than him...

Henry L Niman earned a PhD at the University of Southern California in 1978. His dissertation focused on feline retroviral expression in tumors in domestic cats.

He took a postdoctoral position at Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation where he developed monoclonal antibody technology. He fused monoclonal antibody and synthetic peptide technologies and accepted a staff position at Scripps.

In 1982, he developed the flu monoclonal antibody, which is widely used throughout the pharmaceutical, biotech, and research industries in epitope tagging techniques. He also produced a broad panel of monoclonal antibodies against synthetic peptides of oncogenes and growth factors. These monoclonal antibodies were distributed worldwide to researchers by the National Cancer Institute. The antibodies identified novel related proteins which correlated with clinical parameters.

This technology was used to form ProgenX, a cancer diagnostic company that became Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Dr Niman subsequently identified protein expression patterns at the University of Pittsburgh. More recently, he became interested in infectious diseases while at Harvard Medical School. He then founded Recombinomics and discovered how viruses rapidly evolve. These latest findings are the subject of recent patent filings.

 

[pilot fish]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8). That IS NOT a staggering number. Of those deaths, it is also reported that they suffered from other underlying health issues as well. The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything.

I'm not going to play the " my info is better than yours" thing. It gets us no where. The reported death toll in Mexico is 16, last I checked, and rising. We don't want to see anymore, I'm sure you feel the same way?

As I pointed out to firefyter, when he posted the silly statement that more people would probably die from dive accidents than the swine flu. I was showing how totally inaccurate that was. I'm sure you will agree, Christi, that 16 divers have not died WORLD WIDE since this flu emerged in Mexico? Let me also correct one unintentional misstatement of yours, it is not ONLY immune deficient people but YOUNG HEALTHY people that have died from this flu around the World. THAT is what has most people worried.

some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, - firefyter

I'm not sure where your comparison with diving comes in there.

As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions.

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

But since your buddy brought it up, I think it is valid, in that, we practice caution in our risky sport. WE SHOULD DO THE SAME THING REGARDING THIS SWINE FLU OUTBREAK. Do we agree on that much?

 

[pilot fish]

Don, this is looking more amd more like a waste of time trying to advice Coz divers to proceed with caution regarding this swine flu outbreak in Mexico. The Coz dive industry, and it's staff, are content to tell thier fellow divers to " disregard the flu hype, the flu hysteria" and, come on down and dive

And I'm sure some will say they know more than him...

 

[Firefyter]

As I pointed out to firefyter, when he posted the silly statement that more people would probably die from dive accidents than the swine flu. I was showing how totally inaccurate that was. I'm sure you will agree, Christi, that 16 divers have not died WORLD WIDE since this flu emerged in Mexico?

That's not what I said at all. Go back, read it again, and try to comprehend what I said. I agree, if I had made that statement, it would be very silly. I'm starting to see why you're always in arguments.

 

[lamont]

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

It may be accurate that of the diving population that they're more at risk of dive accidents than influenza. But divers typically have healthy immune systems and are 12+ years old.

 

[Firefyter]

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

Again, that's not the comparison that was made at all. Therefore, your statement is not a very bright one and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.