The Swine Flu thing...

[don Francisco]

There's absolute nothing wrong with caution, but let's be worried about the right thing.

Mexico is shutting down large sections of their economy, doing everything possible to prevent transmission through mass assemblies, and otherwise has the strongest containment policies in place.

Compare that to the USA, where our Vice President is publicly flamed for over-reacting by suggesting to his own family that they avoid confined places such as aircraft and subways. Here in the USA baseball stadiums are still crowded, and kids from closed schools are visiting the mall instead.

If you live is a small town, you're probably safer at home, but if you travel within a large metropolitan area in the USA you're probably more exposed to H1N1 than if you visited Cozumel.

That can change at any time, but I'll bet anyone a 2 tank dive in Coz. that very soon there'll be more confirmed cases difused over a wider area within the "safe" confines of the USA than in Mexico.


BTW- I'm betting only the first person to pick up the bet.

 

[ggunn]

Compare that to the USA, where our Vice President is publicly flamed for over-reacting by suggesting to his own family that they avoid confined places such as aircraft and subways.

Just to be clear, he didn't just suggest it to his family, he suggested it to the whole country (the whole world, maybe) from his position as an authority figure. I "flamed" him for that, myself. If he had just said it to his family, I would not have had a problem with it.

 

[pilot fish]

Just to be clear, he didn't just suggest it to his family, he suggested it to the whole country (the whole world, maybe) from his position as an authority figure. I "flamed" him for that, myself. If he had just said it to his family, I would not have had a problem with it.

Biden is a loose lipped showoff that continually says the wrong thing at the wrong time. The fact that he is a heart beat from the Presidency is more scary than the foolish faux pas he blathers, daily. Even if he said just his own family, that would be as bad. He needs to keep it to himself and just say the party line.

 

[Firefyter]

"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.

It's only 2.5 hours from DFW. Ya think it's only 600-700 miles from here? Lighten up on the fear mongering, you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....

 

[CozumelAntonio]

I found the following artlice very interesting, seems H1N1 has been under the microscope for a while:

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96%

Commentary

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96%
Recombinomics Commentary 23:38
December 5, 2008


Twenty-four of 25 influenza A (H1N1) viruses tested were resistant to oseltamivir

Twenty-five influenza A (H1N1) and five influenza A (H3N2) viruses were tested for adamantane resistance. All influenza A (H1N1) viruses were sensitive to the adamantanes. All influenza A (H3N2) viruses tested were resistant to the adamantanes.

The above comments from the CDC week 48 report indicates the four most recently tested H1N1 isolates were oseltamivir resistant, raising the frequency in the United States to 96% and extending the streak of Tamiflu resistance to the 23 most recently tested samples.

The latest report significantly increases the number of H1N1 isolates tested for amantadine resistance. Since all are sensitive, it is likely that the H1N1 in the United States is clade 2B (Brisbane/59) and not clade 2C (Hong Kong), which was 100% amantadine resistant last season in the United States.

Thus, clade 2B has become the dominant H1N1 sub-clade in the United States, and has also been the dominant influenza A isolate in the United States since 112/128 subtypes influenza A was H1N1. Similarly, clade 2B is the most common influenza in the United States at this tie since 282/365 isolates are influenza A.

The resistance levels in H1N1 in the United States is similar to other countries in North America and Europe, where levels are at or near 100% for Canada (1/1), England (19/20), and Scotland (2/2) and at 100% in Norway and Austria.

At this time H3N2 is the dominant influenza A subtype reported in Europe, but in the United States, the vast majority of influenza A is H1N1, raising concerns regarding the current antiviral recommendations for seasonal flu, which includes oseltamivir.


Media Links

Recombinomics Presentations

Recombinomics Publications

Recombinomics Paper at Nature Precedings

 

[Sue Sue]

Posted by the AP (Associated Press) 19 min ago. Swine flu virus starting to look less threatening

ATLANTA The swine flu virus that has frightened the world is beginning to look a little less ominous. New York City officials reported Friday that the swine flu still has not spread beyond a few schools. In Mexico, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught the virus.

One flu expert says there's no reason to believe the new virus is a more serious strain than seasonal flu. And a federal health official said the new flu virus doesn't appear to have genes that made the 1918 pandemic flu strain so deadly. ....



OK folks, at least it is some good news. Although, the article does continue on with a message to continue caution at this point. Regardless, this is good news with good advice as well.

With this in mind...As of today, and some fancy changes of reservations due to Continental "consolidating" flights, I will say the trip Michael and I have planned is still a go. We had to move our reservations out 1 day, (Flights, lodging and Diving) but, that's OK. I have also discussed the plan of travel we have with medical professionals as well. Two of them being my own son and daughter-in-law who ER Registered Nurses. They all have said to go ahead with travel plans and take the same precautionary measures that would be taken during any flu season.

Therefore, unless the powers that be shut it all down, Michael and I and our group are still counting the days until we say Hola Cozumel !!!

 

[pilot fish]

?????????????
No one is saying not to keep advised or to stay aware of the situation - they're saying make informed choices - which even Don does and then he ends the same sentence with something like "for those of you foolish enough to put yourself in harm's way..." if you're going to encourage people to make informed choices, then don't chastise them for the choices they DO make.

The irony of it is that the people that ARE staying aware and keeping up with the updates and what WHO and CDC are saying are the ones that now realize this isn't nearly as serious as it was initially thought to be and that the hype caused great damage to many people. Yes, it's a nasty flu virus and no one ever wants to get that...but it has no boundaries! While we still have no reported cases of it here as of today, I suspect a few will pop up eventually - but in my opinion, it's nothing to go hysterical over.

The use of that words, hysteria & hype, indicates to me that you are doing the same thing you accuse Don of doing - painting the other side in a negative light. Not giving credence to those that feel that it has the potential to be very serious amounts to the same thing as saying those that ignore it are foolish. You are taking a more loose approach to it and others are taking a more serious approach to it. Both right? neither is right?

With all of this said I will throw my final punch point out there. Given that containment is an impossibility, along with the fact that the swine flu (or any flu/virus/illness for that matter) has no boundaries...I would argue that your travel DESTINATION is irrelevant. If you are afraid to travel because you are afraid of the possibility of getting the flu - then I would also argue with the same logic that you should cancel ALL travel plans including domestic travel until the risks are completely gone. BTW - I am not chastising those who have chosen to cancel/postpone their travel plans to Cozumel - especially given those with young children.

You should encourage them not to bring thier kids, maybe?

What I question are those that are citing the REASON for their cancellations to Cozumel specifically because they think that travel to this area puts them at higher risk than anywhere else...including but not limited to airports, airplanes, their local grocery store, local gym, local movie theater, bar, etc. My point is that ALL of these places are breeding grounds on a daily basis for a variety of viral infections and bacterial infections. So, I just encourage people to weigh ALL of the facts and weigh the risks associated with this current hysteria vs. those you take in your normal everyday life when making your travel decisions.

maybe ALL non essential travel should cease for a few weeks? That surley would help contain it, right?

I was actually kind of hoping that all of the drug cartel would contract fatal cases of the swine flu and then we'd have nothing left to worry about here but the possibility of hurricanes

Yeah, we totally agree there. Encourage THEM to travel to Mexico City

 

[jayjoans]

He' s just correcting errors and advising fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings.

Well, IF that is his intention, he's 0-5 with NO advice to fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings. This is what is known as Epic Fail.

"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.

SORRY, 980 miles. NO CORRECTION HERE, actually his guess was wrong, although he states it is if he's pointing out someone's "wild claim".

"Mexicans don't have the level of intra-national travel that we see in the USA..." Probly not

HE AGREED, NO CORRECTION HERE


"Cozumel itself is an island off this fairly remote penninsula. " Ever rode the ferry? It's not all tourists. Cozumel is virtually connected to the Yuc-Pen as many locals who travel the ferry there all hours of the day.

NO CORRECTION HERE. The OP made no statement about who rides on what ferry. Compare the population of the Yucatan peninsula to Mexico City. Would it then be considered remote?

"The fact is that Mexico is doing more than any other country to manage and contain this flu. " Hardly! They're doing all they can now, but many reports indicate they are overwhelmed, after a late start.

CORRECTION, NO. Opinion, yes.
"many reports claim that they are doing MORE than any other country" -jayjoans.

"...don't accuse the Mexican government of being asleep, or downplaying the problem." Seems to be a popular conception. They would have us believe that there is no flu at all in the Yuc-Pen, H1N1-2009 or otherwise which is really insulting. Flu strains are quite common everywhere even in April, but they don't have a single case of any strain. Please...?! Or maybe they should look harder...?

CORRECTION OR JUST STATEMENT?

 

[Firefyter]

All I'm sayin is that some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, and I think their energies would serve them better trying to rectify that.

I'm just sayin

 

[mase]

you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....

You mean Fox don't ya. Hannity, O reilly and the boys can certainly stir the pot.