The Swine Flu thing...

[John_B]

Continental is still flying to Mexico although I noticed on their website that they extended the dates in question to May 15. Previously May 6, I believe.

Correct on all counts. It was May 6th yesterday and was extended to May 15th as of 6:00 PM this evening.

My departure is on May 20th.

 

[okiraku_diver]

If its not a threat in Q.Roo then why restrict tourism there?

According to AP,Mexico closes pyramids as swine flu spreads

"Mexico eliminated more reasons to visit the country on Tuesday, putting its pyramids and all other archaeological sites off limits nationwide and ..."

I think this is why Mexico restricts tourism. I understand your opinion and I believe Q-Roo is still safe.

 

[lamont]

Okay. I agree. Lets put this in perspective.

There's about 36,000 deaths per year from influenza in the US and roughly 500,000 annual deaths worldwide from influenza. Mostly in the very young and very old.

There have been three pandemics in the past 100 years which have killed over 1,000,000 people worldwide. The spanish flu killed something like 20,000,000 on the low end with estimates going up to 100,000,000 at a time when the world population was only 2 billion people. The entirety of the global AIDS epidemic has only killed 25,000,000 people and it took 25 years to do that. Spanish flu got that job done in about 25 months.

99 times out of 100 all this blows over. There's very good biological reasons to doubt that SARS or ebola or most other hysterical, sensationalized virus scares will ever amount to anything -- but we can look at history and see that the simple flu virus has the potential to dwarf Pol Pot and the holocaust and generate as many deaths as all of WWII combined. Even assuming in America that just a vanilla bad pandemic flu season will produce an excess of 36,000 deaths -- that dwarfs 9/11 at 2974 deaths, Katrina at 1836 deaths and US military deaths in the Iraq war at 4596 deaths.

And ebola evolving into airborne hemorrhagic fever takes a *huge* dose of science-fiction. All that a killer flu virus takes is a look at history. It is plausible.

Is this "the big one"? Probably not. But the Northridge quake in 1994 was still serious, and people still take the risks seriously. And even with modern medical treatment available in the US, a virus like the 1918 one would probably overwhelm even the US medical system. Worldwide a repeat on the low end might kill 67,000,000 around the world, but in the US it might kill 300,000 even if modern medical treatment manages to save 2,700,000 people that would otherwide have died in the US (1% death rate worldwide, 0.1% death rate in the US). And thats on the low-end of the death rate estimate for the 1918 virus, and probably a little overly optimistic on how good our medical system would be with 20,000,000 people needing medical treatment and 3,000,000 people at risk of dying.

And that is why the medical professionals are concerned about this. And we've had a lot of scares. Ebola was silly, mad cow was overblown, SARS was disconcerting but blew over, H5N1 has stubbornly refused to mutate into a virus capable of human-to-human infection. Unfortunately, we've cried wolf enough times that the real dangers are starting to get downplayed by a population which is getting used to hysterical media attention and getting cynical. This isn't something to be cynical about, though, this is something to at least pay some attention to it, and give the risks of the common flu virus a little respect. This isn't ebola, or mad cow, or SARS.

And even if this "blows over", there is still a new flu strain on the block that we have little resistance to an a more common 'flu epidemic' is almost certain to occur and worldwide deaths will probably see 2x the normal influenza deaths per year at least (500,000/yr and 36,000/yr in the US) and we can all at least expect to catch a raging flu from either this one or an antigenic drift of it in the next year or two. And that is equivalent to doubling the annual rate of traffic accidents per year in the US (or 4.6 times 9/11 + Katrina + Iraq combined).

I wish more people would put things in the proper perspective:

History Says Avoid Virus Hysteria - MSN Health & Fitness - Health Topics
History Says Avoid Virus Hysteria
Let the public health experts freak out about swine flu. The rest of us should relax.
By David Whelan, Forbes.com

In April 2003, the world seemed on the brink of a killer pandemic.

After simmering for months in Guangdong, China, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus had exploded in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Canada, the U.S. and 14 other countries. It had a seriously scary fatality rate of 10 percent.

But as quickly as it came, it just as quickly faded away. The virus turned out not to be as contagious as feared. To date, the World Health Organization estimates that 774 people died from SARS. Most of the deaths occurred in Hong Kong and other areas in Southern China--where officials let the outbreak fester too long without taking steps to contain it.

Here in the U.S. there were only eight reported SARS cases, all nonfatal.

SARS was scary, for sure. But it affected only a specific region. And the deaths were mostly to blame on incompetent public health officials.

This history is something to keep in mind in the coming weeks as the swine flu outbreak, which is suspected of causing more than 100 deaths in Mexico, unfolds. While there have been a small number of cases in the United States, almost all of them have been mild, and there have been no deaths. And it is not clear whether there ever will be a significant number of deaths.

Hysteria and exotic-sounding disease outbreaks go hand in hand. Whether it's anthrax, mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease, bird flu or, going back to the 1990s, ebolaÍÏews of an outbreak generates fear that's disproportionate to the risk of catching the disease. In each of these cases deaths, if they occurred at all, were minimal.

During the SARS episode, the U.S. quickly cranked itself into full freakout mode. Each of the eight U.S. patients who contracted SARS had picked up the disease in Asia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet travelers donned face masks no matter where they were flying. Pedestrians in U.S. cities followed suit. Families canceled vacations. Shoppers and diners avoided Chinatowns and Chinese restaurants like they were leper colonies. Companies scaled back their business in Asia, and then blamed bad financial results on SARS.

Cable news channels and other media sensationalized the outbreak as if it were a Hollywood movieÍÂ real-life sequel to Dustin Hoffman's 1995 hit Outbreak. A medical historian at the University of Toronto, Edward Shorter, watched what was going on and called the phenomenon "mass psychosis."

Meanwhile, that year--and in every year this decadeÍÃetween 30,000 and 50,000 American deaths were recorded from complications related to the seasonal flu. Another 40,000 people died in automobile accidents. And each year, gunshot wounds account for 30,000 deaths, around 4,000 people drown while swimming or boating and 60 people die from lightning strikes.

"The public is driven by irrational fears. They didn't go to medical school," says Shorter. "They're responding to an abdication of leadership by political leaders."

So far, the U.S. has responded to the swine flu with restraint. President Obama said the problem is a "cause for concern" and "not a cause for alarm." And the declaration of a public health emergency is not quite as scary as it sounds. It is an important precautionary measure, like declaring a state of emergency in Florida because a hurricane may or may not hit. But Russia banned pork imports from Mexico. And Hong Kong has said it won't accept flights from Mexico. "That's irrational, except to whip up public sentiment against the Mexicans," Shorter says.

The American publicÍÂnd the news mediaÍØas captivated for an entire weekend by the prospect of a swine flu crossing our border. Is it the beginning of the next pandemic? Will the U.S. State Department ban travel to Mexico? Will the border be sealed? Will San Diego be next?

Let the public health officials make these decisions, Shorter recommends. No matter how virulent an outbreak seems at the beginning, public health departments will react aggressively. That's their jobÍÃetter safe than sorryÍÂnd that's how epidemics are contained. But everyone else should learn to relax.

 

[driftwood]

I've never experienced any level of "person to person contact" at ruin sites. I really do think you will get more spreading at AI resorts (hundreds pawing the serving utensils at the buffet, taking things with their hands...) and parks like Xel Ha or Xcaret then at the archaeological sites.

IF there were reported cases in the local population or in vacationers still in the area in Q. Roo then I could absolutely understand this. Zero reports. To me it just doesn't make sense to shut down archaeological sites that are spread out and don't result in huddled masses or bodily contact between visitors.

If "the experts" have data that now indicates (no guesses or maybe's) that this will be a worldwide death threat, then lets have the national health depts (like the CDC) and governments issue a ban on travel to/from Mexico. If the CDC and it's counterparts in other countries, and the WHO, is not ready to do that, then advise people to be diligent with proper hygiene and to be aware of the symptoms, but don't shut down the entire country. If its not a threat in Q.Roo then why restrict tourism there? NYC has the most confirmed cases in the US. Should we quarantine the city and anyone who commutes in daily for work?

You missed the point. It is not about the level of contact at a ruin site. The government is trying to scare people into staying at home and having as little interaction as possible.

To make the point more clearly, out of a village of 2000 people they had 800 cases of flu from ONE child. For those of us who are challenged by math, a 40% transmission rate in population no more crowded than your average rural town. That is a HUGE number and scares public health officials given the number of deaths in Mexico City compared to the number of reported cases. Use what percentage of fatal cases from this flu you want, but in a city of 20 million with a 40% transmission rate, that is very bad news. Let's see, 8 million cases of flu and at a 0.1% death rate by my math that is 8,000 dead if nothing is done to stop it.

Is that a high enough butcher's bill for you if nothing is done to stop it?

 

[lamont]

Another way to put my somewhat rambling post up there more succinctly...

SARS infected about 8,000 people worldwide and killed 774. I would be willing to bet money that ultimately this H1N1 or its antigenic shifts over the next couple years will kill at least an excess of 500,000 people over the next couple flu seasons guaranteed -- just knowing as much as we know now and assuming that it completely "fizzles" and doesn't become a pandemic.

Which is 2x the death toll of the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake/Tsunami... And that assumes this is a yawner...

 

[Bandmom]

Wow!! This is going to get interesting...but it still seems too soon to panic. Maybe I tend to be "too positive" and I'm certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer but at this point it seems that we are in a "wait and see" period.
My understanding was that the little boy was one of the few (if not only) flu cases in his village that were actually confirmed to be the Swine Flu and he recovered in a week. Of course that information may change but my understanding is that they are still trying to seperate the folks suffering from the "regular" flu from those with the Swine Flu. One thing we can count on is that the media is going to make every detail just as dramatic as they possibly can so I personally will be watching the CDC and WHO to gauge my need to "panic". Although it may cause a short term problem to the travel industry, hopefully all the different government's precautions, even if they may be overzealous, will help to minimize both the potential threat and the panic. Given the current economic state of things, I would think that no government would want to put an unneccesary strain on the travel industry. Hopefully this will all blow over soon and there will be few people negatively affected. The flip side is that if this does become a health crisis involving some terrible flu that spreads from person to person, I'm thinking my June vacation will be the last thing on my mind; plus, as Christi said, containment will be impossible making it just as dangerous to visit Texas or New York as it would be to go to Cozumel. Might as well be floating in the beautiful Cozumel waters while I worry. Seriously, I hope and pray that it all blows over quickly with little financial and/or health problems to everyone.
In the meantime.....

By the way; here is the CDC site if anyone wantes it: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

 

[judydivescoz]

I would sooooo love to be heading to Cozumel right now.... but my dad is facing major surgery in Toronto so I'm having to pack up the car and hit the road the northern border tomorrow. :depressed: (been going through training to run home dialysis for my FIL for the past 4wks.... )

This is the first time in about 6 yrs that we haven't had a trip to Coz in March/April.... if dad pulls through and all is well with my FIL & MIL, we'll be checking out last minute deals and heading down for 7-10 days in mid-June for sure! We are VERY MUCH in need of some good diving and r&r, and Cozumel is top of our list for both.

Not sure where in the NYC area you are but I just got a $390 flight n Delta to CZM from Westchester County Airport for the end of June. It was less than the other metro airports by far the day I booked. Thought it was a great deal.
Hope your dad is feeling better.

 

[AquaExplorer]

It's because there really is no reason to cancel your trip.

Yeah know what..that is just an assinine statement.

While I am no "the sky is falling type"...I do work in risk management for a living.

We each need to do our own risk evaluations and look at the totality of circumstances. While it is true that the WHO said that containment, as a whole, is now impractical, that does NOT mean that your chances lessen the farther from the center one gets.

As someone else stated, the horses may be out of the barn, but one can still chose to not lay under the horses to lessen any risk, and that is a valid reason to cancel.

 

[AquaExplorer]

I've never experienced any level of "person to person contact" at ruin sites. I really do think you will get more spreading at AI resorts (hundreds pawing the serving utensils at the buffet, taking things with their hands...) and parks like Xel Ha or Xcaret then at the archaeological sites.

IF there were reported cases in the local population or in vacationers still in the area in Q. Roo then I could absolutely understand this. Zero reports. To me it just doesn't make sense to shut down archaeological sites that are spread out and don't result in huddled masses or bodily contact between visitors.

If "the experts" have data that now indicates (no guesses or maybe's) that this will be a worldwide death threat, then lets have the national health depts (like the CDC) and governments issue a ban on travel to/from Mexico. If the CDC and it's counterparts in other countries, and the WHO, is not ready to do that, then advise people to be diligent with proper hygiene and to be aware of the symptoms, but don't shut down the entire country. If its not a threat in Q.Roo then why restrict tourism there? NYC has the most confirmed cases in the US. Should we quarantine the city and anyone who commutes in daily for work?

Why wait for the government? What is it that so many seem to always want to turn to/abdicate decisions to the government?

A business made a business decision which I can gauran-damn-tee you is based on the "if we do not cancel and someone dies, how much are we going to get sued for" line of thinking.

With a pandemic the outbreaks can really ramp up overnight...so do we wait until 1000 are dead, 10000, before we say "perhaps we should not travel there"?

 

[geokr]

While it is true that the WHO said that containment, as a whole, is now impractical, that does NOT mean that your chances lessen the farther from the center one gets.

What the WHO said is that there is no more "center".

Further - another way of assessing risk would be to look at that map DandyDon sent out showing where cases have occurred. If you're not under one of those pins then wouldn't your risk be less if you were someplace else? Right now and until proven otherwise Cozumel doesn't have a pin, so my guess is that it's safer there than a lot of places that do. Don't cancel your plans for pinless places.