shark attack odds

[MSilvia]

The Odds: 1 in 11.5 million
You're far more likely to sustain an injury from a toilet seat than a shark, according to the International Shark Attack File (ISAF).

While I'll agree the odds of being attacked by a shark are remote,that's a textbook example of a useless statistic. It neglects to describe the 11.5 million sample group, and goes on to compare the odds of something nearly every person on earth does on a daily basis with something only a small minority will ever have a chance of encountering.

If, for example, you're a farmer in Kansas who has never travelled more than 30 miles from home, obviously your odds of being attacked by a shark are next to nothing. You're likely to see a toilet seat at least twice a day though, so which do you think you should be more concerned about? We have no idea if that farmer is included in the 11.5 million sample. It would be a lot more meaningful if it said something like "Of x number people who spent any time in shark infested water last year, y% were actually attacked by sharks" or better yet, "Every man/hour of time spent in shark-infested waters yielded an average of x attacks."

If you're surfing at a beach patrolled by several tiger sharks, do you really believe you have a better chance of being injured by a toilet seat that isn't anywhere near you? The risk is situation dependant, the quoted statistic is not.

I've seen similar statistics citing your odds of shark attack vs. being hit by lightning. I believe those statistics are just as useless, unless the sample population is limited to people swimming in shark infested water during a lightning storm.

 

[BKP]

so... what, then, are your odds, if you're on the toilet *in* the ocean?

 

[mike_s]

I saw something that said you're more likely to be killed by a vending machine falling on you than a shark killing you.

Also that more people are killed from coconuts falling on their heads than from sharks.

Also, more people are killed by donkey's kicking them each year than sharks kill people.


Just to put the odds in perspective.......

 

[Walter]

Matt, excellent thought process. Thanks for taking the time to explain what should have been obvious to everyone, but likely wasn't. Spending time in the ocean greatly increases your odds. They are still pretty remote, but they do increase. I was on my 1705th dive before I ever felt threatened by a shark (about 100 or so were in fresh water not connected to the ocean). During that particular encounter, I never gave a single thought to the fact odds were 1 in 11.5 million that I was in this position. I did give thought to what I needed to do to increase the chances my buddies and I would live through the incident. Odds are useless. How to act with regard to the shark or sharks when you come up on the short end of the odds is what is important.

 

[MSilvia]

During that particular encounter, I never gave a single thought to the fact odds were 1 in 11.5 million that I was in this position.

I'd imagine a toilet seat would have come in handy right about then, eh?

 

[drbill]

bull sharks are able of entering freshwater arnt they?

Yes, they are... but I've never heard of one entering into the Great Lakes or quarries of the Midwest where I was!

Yes, Walter and Matt, sadistics can create some very misleading numbers.

 

[under water]

So let me see .. What poses the greatest risk to me. The toilet or the shark.. Hmm let me think about that.

I think it's probably situational dependent as has been stated many times.
If people really believed in odds they wouldn't buy lottery tickets.

 

[MSilvia]

The toilet or the shark.. Hmm let me think about that.

Trick question... that toilet doesn't have a seat!

 

[HowardE]

Sharks don't like SCUBA divers... the tanks give them gas.

 

[Peter_C]

I was on my 1705th dive before I ever felt threatened by a shark

Isn't it story time? You can't start telling it then quit