HD--Just to add to uncertainty are the current La Nina effects. We're Back on Bali in early April, so of course I was checking for typical weather patterns. Normally this wouldn't be a bad time to dive Bali but a friend from Oz who dives there practically monthly (yeah, I hate him too...
) has mentioned he's seen lot's more rain there the last several months (but not as much as Australia!). I'm not saying this is the case for RA but it may alter the "normal" weather situation.
I got the following from the NWS Climate Prediction Center, dated Jan.20, 2011 (Oh and it's a summary for non-technical users! Sheesh...) :
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CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAINED FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY. NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST -1.0 C EXTEND ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
ABOUT 160E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST IN EARLY JANUARY. THE SUB-SURFACE HEAT
CONTENT (NEAR-EQUATORIALLY AVERAGED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 300 METERS OF
THE OCEAN) INDICATES A LARGE VOLUME OF WATER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES TO OVER 200 METERS DEPTH BETWEEN ABOUT 160W AND THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THESE LARGE SCALE SST ANOMALIES, AND INCLUDE: SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER INDONESIA.
COLLECTIVELY, THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC INDICATORS SUGGEST MODERATE TO
STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS.
>>>>>>
Well, guess it's another "Who knows?" situation! // ww