pDCS=0.66 use deco gas?

[CuriousRambler]

This thread is incredible in all the wrong ways.

 

[PfcAJ]

Yes, but that is from a lot of people doing no stop diving well away from the limits. Those dives will often be limited by gas and so low risk from a deco point of view.

Apparently the USN limit is 2% for mild DCS and 0.1% for serious. I am talking serious here so it sounds like nobody is prepared to accept this level of risk.

What if it took a year of these dives to get get to a 0.66% probability of death? Say 50 or 60 dives at 0.01%, is that ok?

Thats not how probabilities work. The next outcome is not dependent on the previous outcome(s).

 

[Steve_C]

If you do this type of dive 10 times you have a 87.5% chance of avoiding a serious hit; 20 is 76.6% while 30 is 67.7%. Clearly if you do it very many times you do not have a good outcome eventually. To have a good income you have to have a good income every time which is why it is not additive.

 

[grantctobin]

Yes, but that is from a lot of people doing no stop diving well away from the limits. Those dives will often be limited by gas and so low risk from a deco point of view.

Apparently the USN limit is 2% for mild DCS and 0.1% for serious. I am talking serious here so it sounds like nobody is prepared to accept this level of risk.

What if it took a year of these dives to get get to a 0.66% probability of death? Say 50 or 60 dives at 0.01%, is that ok?

Maybe a rudimentary statistics class would aid in this planning discussion of whatever made up reality this is.

 

[Dsix36]

Most of this is personal risk vs. reward and planning to make it an acceptable risk. I do not think any of us are actually doing dives that we think will end up killing us but the simple fact is that we are taking that chance on each and every dive we do, regardless of how simple of a dive we think it may be. DCS is not always fatal and neither is a shark bite, but I still do not look forward to either of them.

I think that when doing extreme dives that are coupled with being in remote locations, that the planning needs to be done in a much more conservative manner to try and mitigate the risks as much as possible. I think that is in reference to the OPs opening question.

 

[Celt]

Say it is a model that results in that probability. This is a question about risk acceptance.

Are you saying 1.33% pDCS and 0.66 pDeath too high?

What I mean is if the dive is justified then the risk is. If it would save lives or make a lot of money.

 

[KenGordon]

Thats not how probabilities work. The next outcome is not dependent on the previous outcome(s).

The probability of something going wrong in ANY ONE of a series of is higher than in any particular dive.

I was trying to reframe the question about risk acceptance to talk about the same risk but in a way that maybe people find more acceptable, ie over a larger number of dives, since despite table space having a pDCS target which is quite high they don’t think they are taking such a risk. And maybe that is fair because I am talking about risk of death not risk of injury.

 

[KenGordon]

What I mean is if the dive is justified then the risk is. If it would save lives or make a lot of money.

Ok, so how much does it have to be worth? A week’s salary? A year’s? How many lives?

 

[Celt]

Ok, so how much does it have to be worth? A week’s salary? A year’s? How many lives?

The only people that money doesn’t matter to are people with money. For 3 years every dive I done was an exceptional exposure dive on the 1979 us navy’s air decompression tables. We only had 2 serious DCS

 

[cathal]

What I mean is if the dive is justified then the risk is. If it would save lives

If the dive is a rescue dive, the number one rule is you never put your own life at risk, one death is enough, don't add to it.

What I mean is if the dive is justified then the risk is, or make a lot of money.

Are you suggesting your life is worth a certain sum of money, that for a sum of money over a certain threshold you would risk your life for that sum? How do you think your family would feel about that?