I think you may be oversimplifying the physics here. I know I have seen some paddle fins that are much smaller than some split fins. I suspect that a credible scientific treatment of this subject would involve more independent variable than "surface area" as well as appriopriate dependent variable. And there does seem to be a fair amount of disgreement on what those dependent variables should be. I don't think your "simple physics" which suggests it is just a matter of size provides an adequate answer.
I have a pair of Blades that I modified into split fins and a pair of Jet fins. I normally use a frog kick. I find no noticable differences in their performance. I prefer the splits mostly because the foot pocket is more comfortable. And, yes, I can back kick with both.
I did that same experiment a few years ago.I split some old UDTs by removing the center rin and then recontouring the blade. I also did the same with a rotten pair of old Jets. I did this to some old Vikings as well an a set of Plana Graphite full foots that had a torn pocket. You know--I hate to tell you guys---:
1) Force Fins Pros are quite possibly the fastest fin
2) standard UDT fins are as poweful as the Jet and possibly faster and do everything the Jet does better except go on to a drysuit boot.
3) Jet Fins are a good all around fin for diving due to their power, acceleration, reasonable foot pocket, price and availability but when it comes to speed they are not the top of the hill. I am talking about the XL size.
4)The fins I split did not perform that differently from the unsplit version. The UDT was softer without the center rib but frog kicked well.
This conclusions above are based on my simple experiments by swimming of laps in gear and timing myself at a moderate effort and by counting the number of strokes/cycles for the frog kick to get from one end of the pool to then other with no push off.
There is more to this fin stuff than blade area or shape or split etc. Some work really good and some don't and it is hard to put a finger on it. I have taped the vents closed on Rockets and Jets and I think--think--they work better without the vents for example.
I would really like a set of the Apollo XT to test against the Jet XL and UDT. Further, my tests mirror what the Navy found decades earlier before the Jet ever existed--the UDT is the King of the Hill. It toook fewer cycles to cover the same distance asd the Jet XL.
My arsenal:
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