Chuck,
No, I can't do any better, but then again I didn't go to school to study meteorology, (I can barely spell it!) and I don't pass myself off as a "professional" weather forecaster. Sorry if I offended any weather professionals with my off the cuff remark.
I have heard (anecdotal) that if you either a) look out the window to provide the forecast for today, or b) use today's weather as a forecast for tomorrow, you will actually have a very high percentage of accuracy. Supposedly either method is more accurate than some weather persons, but I have no proof.
I do agree that predicting several days out is a much more difficult task.
Prior to this year, the most reliable forecaster for rain has been my newspaper delivery person. If the paper had a blue plastic bag on it, it rained most of the time. If it did not have a blue plastic bag on it, then it didn't rain. In past years he had an uncanny record, but this year he has missed a few more times.
But I digress . . .
My point was to clarify the water temp and the air temps, with a caveat.
Incidentally, today's forecast for Saturday is 5 degrees higher than yesterday's.
It looks like the weather may be very nice. If I can shake this sinus / throat stuff, I might have to cruise down to Monterey.
Wristshot