Considering all the above, would 17lbs wing be sufficient or 20 would be a better choice (my current BCD is shocking 40lbs).
As per Tobin's math, +4lbs for empty Al80, +4lbs for the suit, -2lbs for the reg = 6lbs of lead (though I'd wear 8lbs myself). That plus -2lbs of a full Al80 plus anther couple of pounds for flashlight, knife, and assorted junk: about 12lbs. That's what you need for your gear to float. Which leaves you with 5lbs of extra lift in the #17 wing. (Of course, this assumes the lead is attached to the kit and you didn't ditch it and so on.)
The wing's other job is compensating for loss of buoyancy to wetsuit compression at depth. That's mostly for cold water diving in 7mm suits and should be a non-issue for you: if your 3mm suit is +4lbs, then you can lose 4lbs at the most and 4lbs of lift is all you need to compensate.
That said, I'm very happy with my 25lb Hollis wing -- DRiS gave a me a rather nice discount on it. Which is why I said "all other things being equal".