Feb 19 2017 Cozumel diving fatality

[Divegoose]

When I was in college, I took a course in statistics. The instructor made the point at the start of the course that "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics". He went on to say that statistics could me made to read anything you wanted them to read. While they do have their place, such as batting average in baseball (perhaps a poor example), there are many variables that can affect how they are interpreted.

Divegoose

 

[KenGordon]

An average age of 53 is not very old

That depends on your point of view!

The youngest was 40. So we are saying that only one half (ish) of the diving population dies. And it is not the mature and careful half. Of course it is also the half that can afford the toys. But I don't think anyone died on a toy last year.

The 2013 report has a section on this, essentially the whole population of uk divers is aging and those older divers are more likely to have medical problems.

 

[lionfish-eater]

The main reason statistics are relevant to the insurance industry from an actuarial view, is that they are concerned with the population of divers as a whole based on a series of repetitive events.

For any one individual diver, there are only two possible outcomes for each dive, live or die. Each dive is an independent trial. Sample size n=1.

 

[dmaziuk]

The main reason statistics are relevant to the insurance industry from an actuarial view, is that they are concerned with the population of divers as a whole based on a series of repetitive events.

For any one individual diver, there are only two possible outcomes for each dive, live or die. Each dive is an independent trial. Sample size n=1.

Which is precisely why comparing road deaths with dive deaths is apples to apples. You want deaths per trip? -- it's exactly 100% for every dead d(r)iver on their final trip.

 

[lowflyer]

High risk, low risk? I know about the difficulty of working with statistics, but I sure am happy when I get travel insurance for a dive trip, and the insurer does not include diving as one of those high risk activities that they won't insure for

 

[yle]

Those are pretty good odds. I wouldn't call an activity with a 199,999 in 200,000 chance of survival "dangerous."

Specific to Cozumel, I wonder how many dives there are annually on the island? I would guess at least 200,000 but I really don't know. If anyone else does, I'd like to find out. How many fatalities annually? Maybe on average one or two? And many of the divers in Cozumel are older and not fit.

If those numbers are anywhere close to accurate, I don't think it points to any problem with safety procedures in Cozumel.

I've heard on a typical day there could be 2000 to 3000 divers in the water at Coz (this coming from the safety director on the island a couple years back. He was our dive guide and we got into a discussion about dive safety after a diver was reported missing that day.) Extrapolate that to a year, and give each diver two dives per day, and there could be more like 1.5 million dives a year there.

If one dive in 200,000 ends badly, then 7 or 8 a year in Coz is on par with the average.

 

[redacted]

So, an industry that brings about $100,000,000.00 to the island has a downside of 8 deaths per year.

I wonder how much it would cost the island to reduce those deaths to 6.

 

[Nutterbutter]

I just read through this entire thread.

Is there a link to any news articles or press releases about the incident? I googled but didn't find any.

Does Scubaboard prohibit mentioning the dive operator?

 

[Scott]

I just read through this entire thread.

Is there a link to any news articles or press releases about the incident? I googled but didn't find any.

Does Scubaboard prohibit mentioning the dive operator?

News article was in post #15

Typically names are withheld until it becomes public, the article mentions the dive op.

 

[Ron Lee]

So, an industry that brings about $100,000,000.00 to the island has a downside of 8 deaths per year.

I wonder how much it would cost the island to reduce those deaths to 6.

Zero. Deaths due to medical issues can't be faulted upon anyone. However, going missing can be reduced by better vigilance, an observant buddy, etc.

The real question is how many of the assumed eight deaths are really preventable. Even then adherence to basic scuba protocols may be all that is needed.