Diver missing on Andrea Doria

[doctormike]

I have no idea how many trips are done, but if one boat has most of the fatalities, it makes me curious.

That wreck has been on my bucket list for almost 40 yrs, but I doubt I will ever get the motivation to do it. If that boat is just a shuttle service, do they ever check certifications etc.?? Would they give me a ride if I wanted to do it with a big single, a pony and maaybe a deco bottle...assuming I have no tech certifications?

The John Jack is one of the finest dive operations that I know, and Captain Rich takes the safety of his passengers and crew VERY seriously. I will continue to dive with him without hesitation.

I'm not going to get into the specifics of this tragedy, since I don't know them first hand, and I am far to heartbroken by losing Doc Tom to start playing this game here.

 

[RJP]

I suspect if the data were normalized to correct for the fact that the JJ does more annual trips than the Seeker (and I believe holds more divers) the difference in the mortality rate wouldn't be statistically significant.


-Adrian

There aren't enough cases to consider anything even remotely approaching "data" - much less to be able to normalize or test for statistical significance.

---------- Post added July 25th, 2015 at 08:46 PM ----------

I have no idea how many trips are done, but if one boat has most of the fatalities, it makes me curious.

That wreck has been on my bucket list for almost 40 yrs, but I doubt I will ever get the motivation to do it. If that boat is just a shuttle service, do they ever check certifications etc.?? Would they give me a ride if I wanted to do it with a big single, a pony and maaybe a deco bottle...assuming I have no tech certifications?

I'd be curious to know what you'd be curious about. Not being antagonistic, but you'd be hard-pressed to come up with even a crazy hypothesis to explain how a boat can be part of the equation.

As far as getting on a Doria trip... no need to worry. They are almost universally "friends and family" charters. No one is getting on one who isn't both qualified AND a known entity to the boat or group running the trip.

 

[kwinter]

The John Jack will undoubtedly have an even greater percentage of the Doria mishaps in the future because they will have an even greater percentage of the trips. With the demise of the Garloo, I'm not sure if there will be another operation to make up the slack.

 

[The Laconic]

There aren't enough cases to consider anything even remotely approaching "data" - much less to be able to normalize or test for statistical significance.

With all due respect, that's simply untrue.

Personally, I doubt that the difference in mortality rates is significant, and I have no reason whatsoever to pick on any dive operator. But you can most certainly do such a statistical test, even if there were no cases on the JJ.

 

[dumpsterDiver]

There aren't enough cases to consider anything even remotely approaching "data" - much less to be able to normalize or test for statistical significance.

---------- Post added July 25th, 2015 at 08:46 PM ----------



I'd be curious to know what you'd be curious about. Not being antagonistic, but you'd be hard-pressed to come up with even a crazy hypothesis to explain how a boat can be part of the equation.

As far as getting on a Doria trip... no need to worry. They are almost universally "friends and family" charters. No one is getting on one who isn't both qualified AND a known entity to the boat or group running the trip.

Don't know anything about the boat or operation. I would assume that more than 2 boats go there, but maybe I am wrong. We go farther than that for diving from Florida, so I assumed private boats would be making the run as well. We used to run 100 miles in the Gulf of Mexico to dive pretty frequently.

 

[RJP]

With all due respect, that's simply untrue.

Personally, I doubt that the difference in mortality rates is significant, and I have no reason whatsoever to pick on any dive operator. But you can most certainly do such a statistical test, even if there were no cases on the JJ.

I agree that there's probably not a meaningful difference in number of deaths between any particular two boats. But given that the population size is unknown (total number of dives done on Doria), the actual mortality rate for any specific boat is unknown, the sample/effect size is low, the distribution of divers by boat is not randomized, and there's no way to control for the many other variables with a far higher likelihood of playing a role in any given incident (training, experience, fitness, age, conditions, dive profiles, etc)... determining statistical significance genuinely isn't possible.

 

[dumpsterDiver]

Saying the distribution of divers by boat is not randomized, would be a factor that would be something that could be important and could be a potential reason for the seemingly high mortality. So only two boats dive that wreck in the northeast?

 

[RJP]

Saying the distribution of divers by boat is not randomized, would be a factor that would be something that could be important and could be a potential reason for the seemingly high mortality. So only two boats dive that wreck in the northeast?

Not exactly sure if there's only two... but there's not many more than that. Sea Turtle out of NY has gone there. Google "Andrea Doria Dive Charter" and you'll only find a handful of boats mentioned, three of which are out of business. It's not just about how far it is, but depth, training, conditions, distance, plus cost make for a fairly limited audience size... therefore not many boats needed to meet low demand.

PS - the Doria's location is always reported as "60 nautical miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts " in the news. However the two boats discussed in this thread run out of Point Pleasant NJ and Babylon NY. Obviously the trip is much further (like 3x) from these two locations.

 

[wrybosome]

Not exactly sure if there's only two... but there's not many more than that. Sea Turtle out of NY has gone there. Google "Andrea Doria Dive Charter" and you'll only find a handful of boats mentioned, three of which are out of business.

Independence II goes there too, but I don't think they do it repeatedly the way John Jack does.

 

[Jared0425]

It is a 180 miles from Point Pleasant and 120 from Long Island, add another 35 to Babylon. That is a long run for divers who need to be 100% to make a dive like the Doria. Very rarely do you get good sleep on a boat that is making a run like that. Not saying that that had any bearing on the situation, but understanding these long trips adds stress to the divers that are a long way away from help and shore.