Cozumel COVID-19 updates

[BRT]

Reality is somewhere in the middle. Masks alone will not eradicate the disease, but reducing the transmission rate (as masks demonstrably do) will reduce the total number of infections over time.

No, it may reduce the number of infections at a time.

 

[Pillpusher]

On the bright side, there's only 18 people confirmed to currently have it on Cozumel.

 

[Pillpusher]

That is inaccurate in that there are no numbers established for effectiveness. But wearing a mask can significantly reduce transmission.

Yeah, I have been tempted to use that image in some of the many "mask or no mask" conversations I've had with idiots over the past month, but those stats just seem very... well... made up.

 

[ChuckP]

Following Wet's daily postings of numbers casually, not graphing or keeping notes, I was kinda accustomed to about 40 new cases a day. If anyone is graphing or keeping notes, hasn't there been a recent growth? The last two days saw over 200 new cases in the state, which really means like 2,000.

Scott posts the one graphic that he uses everyday as it's less confusing than this other one the state puts out - this is the other one, same numbers just all the extras and city names aren't straight forward:

Benito Juarez is Cancun, Othon Blanco is Chetumal, Solidaridad is Playa del Carmen

The state wide numbers have definetly been going up with the vast majority related to Chetumal (Othon):

If you read into what they tell us with the numbers:

The death rate back on May 1st was 15%, it climbed to 19.5% and stayed there from mid May till in the last week it is declining, today it's 16.75%. Are they doing more tests, is it less deadly.......

Since May 15th, when people really started ignoring the stay at home stuff (Cozumel at least) - The Cancun / Cozumel cases has gone up but really not that bad, nothing like what I expected - Cancun has just maintained, Cozumel added a few..... Playa del Carmen seems like they keep adding some cases but Chetumal has some issues.

You can almost say that the rise in cases is almost entirely coming from Chetumal - other places aren't getting better but there certainly isn't this crazy spike that I thought we'd see. They don't put people in the hospital anymore, it seems they are testing more - I don't know what to think. Back in April, I was a nervous wreck about catching this thing, I still worry about it but I'm not staying cooped up either.

 

[ggunn]

No, it may reduce the number of infections at a time.

I disagree. "Flattening the curve" doesn't necessarily mean that the area under the curves are the same. The fewer active cases there are in the wild the fewer they generate, and vice versa; exponential functions work both ways. As a theoretical mathematical boundary condition consider if we could immediately find and quarantine every person in the world who is infected; new cases would stop completely. Now consider the other extreme - we immediately go back to "normal" with large crowds, no masks, no social distancing, etc. Plot new cases forward for 5 years. The areas under those curves are not remotely the same.

 

[cozcharlie]

On the bright side, there's only 18 people confirmed to currently have it on Cozumel.

Pillpusher,

I think you probably know this since it has been discussed many times before (Including DandyDon a few posts earlier in the thread , but actually cases in Mexico is probably 10x to 20x reported numbers so I wouldn’t latch on to the 18 cases in Cozumel . You might have meant this sarcastically and I just didn’t catch it, which is definite possibility given your screen name

Mexico and Q Roo have some of the highest positivity ratings in the entire world (north of 50 percent , indicating they are likely only capturing a small percentage of the actual cases ). You can see an interesting thread from a Harvard epidemiologist at bottom of this post . Mexico is only bothering to test the very sick. There are have also been numerous wide disparities between confirmed/reported Covid deaths and actual Covid deaths (with actual linked to Covid much higher). Even the Mexican government used to say actual cases was in the range of 8x reported cases, and I think when you use deaths as a guide you can say that even 8x is quite low

Politicians in general and Mexican politicians specifically are not the most trustworthy bunch , but this is one of the few times where I would think the correct strategy might be to downplay the scale of pandemic here. Quintana Roo absolutely cannot live without tourist dollars for another 7-12 months until we hopefully have a vaccine Herd immunity is at 55-70 percent of the population—it would be catastrophic to go the route.

The politicians need to try to convince the tourists it is safe to come back. It is not really greed (well, not only greed)—it’s economic necessity The optimal strategy is to do everything possible to restrict the spread among the locals (and to tourists ) while still trying to convince tourists the risk is low. Maybe it is just coincidence, but this appears to be what they are doing. Both the super high mortality rate in Q Roo and Mexico (12-20 percent mortality even ignoring undercounted deaths ). and the super high positivity rate indicate the actual scale of the pandemic is much higher than the confirmed cases in the news indicate . Note best estimates for true Covid infection mortality rate in a normal population with good hospitals is around 0.5% to 0.8% if you don’t overrun the hospitals Mexico doesn’t have the best hospitals, so maybe their mortality rate is a few times other countries but that would get you to 2 percent or so , not 12-25 percent You can get to 23 percent for Q Roo if just look at the recovered and the dead. You can’t use the total deaths by total cases because a bunch of people that currently have virus will sadly move into the deaths category as opposed to the recovered category. Undercounting cases and overstating mortality is true everywhere due to asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases , but probably nowhere more true in the world than Mexico (possible exceptions Brazil, Russia and Iran ).

Sorry for the long commentary. Just to be clear , tourists should please come to Cozumel and spend as much money as possible. I can assure you I am definitely doing my part to support the Cozumel economy , but I can’t do it alone Tourists should just be careful while they are here. This goes doubly for people from US States where Covid cases are rising rapidly including my home state of Texas. You don’t want to catch Covid in Cozumel , and you don’t want to give someone in Cozumel Covid.


Harvard Mexico positivity twitter thread :

[https://mobile.twitter.com/drericding/status/1274816278197342209]

 

[DandyDon]

we immediately go back to "normal" with large crowds, no masks, no social distancing

As is being done in too many US locations, with unfortunate results weeks later.

Quintana Roo absolutely cannot live without tourist dollars for another 7-12 months until we hopefully have a vaccine

I'm sorry that your population is so dependent on tourism, but crap happens, and this is crap. I don't dive without a pony, and I suggest you explore more ways to help yourselves. I did send my monthly donation to one of your foodbanks today, and I hope to come in a couple of months, but if you let thousands of carriers infect you island anew, I may cancel that trip like I have several others already. And I hope the cruise barges never come back while y'all adjust.

The politicians need to try to convince the tourists it is safe to come back. It is not really greed

Yeah it is.

tourists should please come to Cozumel and spend as much money as possible.

[/QUOTE]

 

[deepsea21]

You know, that's fine for you. Two things tho...

1. Would you mind wearing masks and washing hands with soap often when you go out in public to avoid spreading asymptomatic infections you might have without knowing?
2. Why are you even reading this thread much less posting since the focus of the thread is not your focus?!

Dandy, Of course I wear a mask whenever I enter a shopping establishment and I have my bleach wipes in my truck for when I return and I wash my hands as soon as I walk into my home.

You are absolutely obsessed with this virus just as you are obsessed with posting dive accidents and incidents. You've posted 1000's of dive accidents and incidents to that thread here. I don't understand why you are still diving given your obsession with researching and posting every dive related fatality or accident you can find globally to Scubaboard. That is a little strange IMO but to each his/her own. As I've said before, you're a strange bird Dandy.

 

[CoDiver303]

@WetInPortland Thanks for taking the time to post these updates daily, it's appreciated!

 

[DandyDon]

You are absolutely obsessed

Instead of answering my question #2. Oh well. You twist facts to suit yourself.