Cozumel COVID-19 updates

[newgentry]

It's been over two weeks since an update here. How is the situation with Covid-19, curfews, diving, shopping, etc?

I have no information on hospital beds in use, positive cases, etc. I was on the island for almost two weeks though, just got back last Saturday. Steady increase in restaurants opening/re-opening. Pancho's Backyard, Coquelitas (spelling?), Le Chef, are three that I can think of that weren't open on the last trip back in July. Downtown shopping appears to have more and more stores open now as well. Dive operation were down, however, from July, which is to be expected in the September/October timeframe anyway. Playa ferry boats have added a couple of trips every day, still not back to pre-COVID thought and they're still operating on alternate days. Assuming that this stays static, you'll have a couple more options on the routes, and the boats that we were on were pretty full. Reefs are still in very good shape, a small but noticeable uptick in lionfish, we took care of several of them though. All of this is anecdotal, of course, so other's opinions may vary, but the overall vibe that I got was an island that is pulling itself forward by baby steps and hoping like hell that the cruise ships come back very soon. What was a tad disconcerting however, was the very noticeable decrease in mask-wearing amongst everyone, locals and tourists both, at least outside and on the sidewalks. Whether that leads to a spike, who knows, but my estimate was that it has gone down by at least 50%.

 

[Jcp2]

We know from hard learned experience that increases in noticeable illness and hospitalization typically occur 3-4 weeks after mask and distancing standards are loosened, and it takes about the same amount of time for a decline to be noticed when standards are tightened.

 

[cozcharlie]

Since someone asked, this is from yesterday.

State has 287 hospitalized —think high was a little over 500.

Cozumel hospitals at 35 percent occupancy —think high was around 70 percent

Cozumel has had 65 official Covid deaths on a population of a little over 100k, that is essentially the same as the US death rate per capita. This should be taken with a grain of salt since in many places in Mexico there is serious undercounting of Covid deaths (when anyone looks at individual death certificates or just look at excess deaths relative to last year ). People several weeks back had noted excess deaths in Cozumel were well above reported Covid deaths , but I could never find the source data


Hospitalization obviously a lagging indicator as others have noted.

 

[cozcharlie]

Happened to read NY times MX/Covid article after I placed last post. It is focused on the giant Central de Abasto market in MX City. Not especially relevant to Cozumel , but kind of interesting

it is probably behind a paywall for most, but here is link FWIW


In the Epicenter of Mexico’s Epicenter, Feeling Like a ‘Trapped Animal’

 

[DandyDon]

What was a tad disconcerting however, was the very noticeable decrease in mask-wearing amongst everyone, locals and tourists both, at least outside and on the sidewalks. Whether that leads to a spike, who knows, but my estimate was that it has gone down by at least 50%.

I hate to hear that. Universal mask wearing seems to be our best defense against this virus, but so many are not bothering in the US, some even protesting masks, some national leaders expressing disdain for masks. This alone may keep me from booking a trip.

This should be taken with a grain of salt since in many places in Mexico there is serious undercounting of Covid deaths (when anyone looks at individual death certificates or just look at excess deaths relative to last year ). People several weeks back had noted excess deaths in Cozumel were well above reported Covid deaths , but I could never find the source data

Yeah, there are been many news stories about this. Some worldwide reports put Mexico as a country at the top of the list for deaths per 100K. I know that Cozumel island is different in many ways from the countrywide experiences, but national resources and defenses are shared.

it is probably behind a paywall for most, but here is link FWIW

No, the NYTimes allows a few free reads per month, then I have to clear my Time cookies. It's similar to other stories I have read about the country.

 

[ChuckP]

It's hard to tell what's really going on other than in generals. I haven't been out much but the little I see is the mask wearing is OK, it sucked back in June but today, when out back here in town, virtually everyone is wearing masks. I've heard stories about no masks being worn by guests at resorts though.

I'm not sure how the state is getting their acceleration numbers, they seem really low. Using their numbers, you can calculate a "R" number, the number of new cases compared to recovered cases - for the last two weeks, that seven day average is right around 1 - so one recovers, one gets sick. Two weeks ago, there was large amounts of cases clearing out so that number was somewhat artificially low but just looking in general, it's about 1.0.

In the last three weeks, Cancun gets 500 new cases but goes from 650 active cases to 170 active ones - maybe that's the acceleration number. Playa had similar huge changes, Cozumel had somewhat like that, not as big though.

Chetumal (Othon) is still the problem area, they haven't yet gone thru the massive case decrease, I'd guess that'll happen in the next few weeks.

If Chetumal's numbers get corrected, the entire state would be back to where we were at before we reopened in June - the northern part of the state is already there - I really think that is saying a lot - while being opened at 60%, we are the same with active cases as we were when closed, Cancun's actually a bunch better.

I think it's safe here, act responsible is all.

 

[Kimela]

We’re at the Palace (leave tomorrow) and the boats have been light and the diving has been great. We were here last month and Chedraui would let only one family member in at a time - now they let families in. They still take temps and have you step in sanitized tray and use hand sanitizer before entering.

Too few people ... come visit!

 

[DandyDon]

Dropping to Orange Monday. Hospital beds are down to 31% occupied, but I am not sure what they call a bed after emergency additions. Sorry, I am not planning a trip to anyplace with a poor trend. Maybe next summer...

 

[ChuckP]

Dropping to Orange Monday. Hospital beds are down to 31% occupied, but I am not sure what they call a bed after emergency additions. Sorry, I am not planning a trip to anyplace with a poor trend. Maybe next summer...

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That is the Federal coding, not the state coding - The state is and remains at Yellow. Long story short, the states have always been able to do what they want, Q Roo says that tourism is vital so they have went on their own verses what the Feds have said.

Why did the Feds switch us from Yellow to Orange? I suspect that a four or five weeks ago, they really started dropping the number of active cases, huge drops in a single day - I think when you do some math looking at "how you're doing", it gives you a fake sense of where you're really at - or we're simply right on the edge of Federal Yellow/Orange.

July was really bad down here, it dragged on into August - hospitals were full, BUT the folks here woke up - mask wearing today is totally different than it was two months ago.

To call what is happening today, the last few weeks a "poor trend" is a gross misstatement......

The magical mythical "R" number, the ratio of new cases to recovered cases is right at 1 and it has been for a few weeks. The average number of new cases every day is still somewhat higher but everything is trending down.......

I'll attach this, bunch of numbers - it's a snapshot of what's been going on here every week since a few weeks before reopening.

 

[DandyDon]

That is the Federal coding, not the state coding - The state is and remains at Yellow.

That sounds like the local powers are artificially coloring the status to attract more business. I've seen such fake news before. But then I haven't had faith in true reporting there all along.