Cline's Diving Industry Survey Results, Q3 2008

[Doc]

Cline's Diving Industry Survey Results

Third Quarter 2008 Dive Business Survey

In general, 44% of all businesses expect their 4th quarter 2008 Gross Sales to be less than the same period in 2007:

> Retailers are not optimistic that their 4th Q 2008 gross sales and certification numbers will increase. There is no good news in terms of 4th quarter forecasts from Retailers.

> Only 38.8% of Independent Instructors responded they expect their 4th quarter 2008 certification numbers will increase as compared to last year.
> In contrast, dive resorts or tropical operators, wholesalers and dive liveaboards are all expecting revenues to be the same as compared to last year's gross revenues for the 4th quarter.

Summary:

> In general, confidence is very low for an INCREASE in respondents 4th quarter 2008 gross revenue. Businesses by country responded as follows for their 4th Quarter Gross confidence outlook:
USA: +21%
Canada: +18%
Carib/S. Amer: +32%
Europe: +27%

> Overall, retailers responded as follows for an INCREASE in their 4th quarter gross revenues:

Eastern US: +9%
Central US: +22%
Mountain US: +50%
Pacific US: +20%

As shown, retailers in the Eastern US are the LEAST optimistic, while retailers in the Mountain Region of the US are the MOST optimistic about their 4th quarter Gross revenues increasing.

Cline's Third Quarter 2008 Dive Industry Survey is in and a total of 315 dive businesses responded to this survey, and indicated the following results:

All dive businesses saw, on average, a .5% increase in their gross revenues for the 3rd quarter 2008 versus the same period in 2007.

Retailers specifically were down reporting a -4.8% decrease in their overall gross revenues in the 3rd quarter for the year.

New certifications were down -5.2% specifically for retailers, but independent instructors showed -2.3% decrease in certifications.

Dive travel sales were down -5.8% specifically for retailers.

Dive equipment sales were also off, -6.0% specifically for retailers.

90% of the retailer respondents were from the USA.

90% of the retailer respondents were the facility owner or manager.

Lastly, Presidential Candidates received the following votes if retailers had to choose today: John McCain 53%, Barack Obama 20% (balance no answer).

Each business category responded as follows for their Gross Income change in the 3rd quarter 2008 versus the same period in 2007: (for categories over 8 respondents):

Business Classification, 3Q 08,
% of change....# reporting:

Dive Retailers
-4.8%...164

Independent Dive Instructors
7.9%...49

Dive Resort or Resort-Based Dive Operators
2.3%...27

Dive Travel Agents/Wholesalers
10.0%.... 8

Dive Related Manufacturers
1.6%...19

Dive Liveaboard Boat or Charter Boat
-10.8%...12

Dive Training Agency
-.2%...10

All Other Industry Professionals
-5.1%...19

All Averaged/Total Respondents
.5%*...315*

* Above overall reported averages are adjusted averages for all business classifications, including those that were too small in number to include in this above table. Total number of businesses and reported overall average includes categories too low to calculate accurate category averages, but their responses were applied to the overall averages and totals.
The following Businesses Responded to this survey:

by Business Classification
Total # Respondents and % of Whole:

Dive Retailers
164
52.1%

Independent Dive Instructors
49
15.6%

Dive Resort or Resort-Based Dive Operators
27
8.6%

Dive Wholesaler/Agent or US Booking Office
8
2.5%

Dive Related Manufacturers
23
6.0%

Dive Liveaboard Boat or Charter Boat
12
3.8%

Dive Related Media, Publication, Website
7
2.2%

Dive Training Agency
10
3.2%

Other Industry Professionals
19
6.0%

Total Respondents
315
100%

> Dive Retailers residing in the Eastern Time Zone responded with the largest decrease in gross revenues for the 3rd quarter of 2008. While dive retailers in the Mountain Time Zone posted the highest gross increase as shown:

Retailers' Time Zone (shows # counts)
Gross Revenues
New Certifications
Travel Revenues
Equipment Revenues:

Mountain Time Zone (12)*
(gross)8.0%
(new)6.9%
(trav)8.0%
(eqpt)15.5%

Eastern Time Zone (75)
-8.4%
-5.9%
-9.9%
-8.1%

Central Time Zone (41)
-7.0%
-9.5%
-8.9%
-11.4%

Pacific Time Zone (20)
1.7%
-5.4%
11.5%
.8%

* Caution should be exercised when interpreting data from fewer than 20 retailers. Mountain Time Zone specifically has a very low count, making the probability of high error rates likely.

> In keeping with retailers depressing results for the 3rd quarter, there is very little optimism for their 4th quarter outlook. In terms of forecasting, 54% of all retailers responded that they expect their gross revenues to decrease in the 4th quarter. Certifications, dive travel and equipment sales are all equally projected to be depressed in the 4th quarter of 2008:

Retailers' 4th Q Forecasts
4th Q Increase
4th Q Decrease
4th Q Same:

Gross Revenues
18.3%
54.3%
17.7%

Dive Certification Numbers
11.6%
51.2%
26.2%

Dive Travel Revenues
11.0%
48.8%
23.8%

Equipment Sales Revenues
19.0%
53.7%
15.9%


> All respondents indicated the following when asked if they had to choose today from the two Presidential front-runners:

John McCain 46%
Barack Obama 23%
Balance No Answer or Does not Apply

See previous reports here:
Welcome to Cline Group's Dive Site

Dear Industry Professional ,
Thanks for subscribing to the diving industry's only independent diving research newsletter. This quarterly email newsletter is sent out to the industry at no charge, in an attempt to disseminate diving research to our industry's professionals.

Best Regards,
William Cline
President
Cline Group Advertising & Marketing, Est. 1990.

The Diving Industry's Only Marketing, Advertising and Research Firm with 17 years of marketing diving worldwide. Find out how we can help your company at Cline Group Interactive

-----

All data and text (c) 2008 William Cline/Cline Group, Inc.
Reprint Rights are Given as Long As this Above Source is Credited.