Cline's Dive Industry Survey Q3 2009, post DEMA

[Doc]

Aside from the blow by blow on-line SB reportage of DEMA, here's the dope:

"
Unlike like last quarter, there is no sign of a rebound for retailers when asked to forecast their 4th quarter 2009 gross revenues.

> Overall, retailers responded as follows for an INCREASE in their 4th quarter outlook for gross revenues:
Eastern US: +21%
Central US: +7%
Mountain US: +25%
Pacific US: +29%

As shown, retailers in the US Central timezone are the LEAST optimistic, while retailers in the Pacific region of the US are the MOST optimistic about their 4th quarter '09 Gross revenues increasing.

> Independent Instructors posted a major drop in certification numbers posting a -9.4% loss in the 3rd quarter of 2009. However, they are split on projected increases vs. decreases for their 4th quarter certification numbers.

Summary:

> Internationally, businesses by region responded as follows for an projected INCREASE in their 4th quarter gross revenues:
Carib/S. America: +20%
Canada: +20%
USA: +22%

> When looking at a combined response for travel sector (resorts, wholesalers & liveaboards), the average company posted a -6.5% loss in their 3rd quarter 2009 gross revenues as compared to the same period in 2008.
Their outlook is equally split between increases, same and decreases for all travel companies for expected revenues in the 4th quarter of 2009.

Third Quarter 2009 Dive Business Survey

Cline's third quarter 2009 Dive Industry Survey is in and a total of 235 dive businesses responded to this survey and indicated the following results:

All dive businesses saw, on average, a -7.4% decrease in their gross revenues for the 3rd quarter 2009 versus the same period in 2008.

Retailers specifically were down, reporting a -8.8% decrease in their overall gross revenues in the 3rd quarter of this year.

New certifications were also down as retailers posted an average decline of -9.3%.
Independent instructors also posted a -4.6% decrease in certifications.

Dive travel sales were down -16.3% specifically for retailers.

Dive equipment sales were also off, as retailers posted a -10.4% decline in sales.

92.6% of the retailer respondents were from the USA.
97.8% of the retailer respondents were the facility owner or manager.

Each business category responded as follows for their Gross Income change in the 3rd quarter 2009 versus the same period in 2008: (for categories over 10 respondents):

Gross Revenues Table

Business Classification
3rd Q 09 % Change
Number Reporting
% of Whole

Dive Retailers
-8.8%
135
57.5%

Independent Dive Instructors (# certs)
-9.4%
26
11.1%

Dive Resort or Resort-Based Dive Operators
-18.1%
18
7.7%

Dive Wholesaler/Agent or US Booking Office
n/a
7
3.0%

Dive Related Manufacturers
-6.3%
17
7.2%

Dive Liveaboard Boat or Charter Boat
n/a
9
3.8%

Dive Related Media, Publication, Website
n/a
2
0.9%

Dive Training Agency
n/a
1
0.4%

All Other Industry Professionals
-9.2%
20
8.5%

All Averaged/Total Respondents
-7.4%*
235* 100%

* Above overall reported averages are adjusted averages for all business classifications, including those classifications indicated as 'n/a' (a classification in which the responses are too low to calculate accurate category averages but applied to the overall averages and totals).

Dive Retailer's 3rd Quarter Gross by Time Zone in the USA:

> Dive Retailers residing in the Mountain Time Zone responded with the largest decrease in gross revenues for the 3rd quarter of 2009. While dive retailers in the Pacific Time Zone posted the least decrease in gross revenues as shown:

Retailer Income Table 3rd Q '09

Retailers' Time Zone (shows counts)
Gross Revenues
New Certs.
Travel Revenues
Equipment Revenues

Mountain Time Zone (4)*
-17.8%
-16.3%
-19.8%
-17.8%
Eastern Time Zone (69)
-7.4%
-9.7%
-18.8%
-11.3%
Central Time Zone (41)
-11.9%
-9.1%
-15.0%
-11.2%
Pacific Time Zone (14)*
-4.8%
-8.1%
-13.9%
-4.6%

* Caution should be exercised when interpreting data from fewer than 20 retailers. Mountain Time Zone specifically has a very low count, making the probability of high error rates likely.

Dive Retailer's 4th Quarter Revenues Projections:

> Unlike the last two quarters, there is very little optimism in the 4th quarter projections. What small indicators for a rebound evaporated with the 3rd quarter of 2009. All sales optimism remains very low for the 4th Quarter:

Retailers' 3rd Q Forecasts
4th Q Increase
4th Q Decrease
4th Q Same

Gross Revenues
16.3%
56.3%
23.0%

Dive Certification Numbers
16.3%
51.1%
25.2%

Dive Travel Revenues
10.4%
51.1%
26.7%

Equipment Sales Revenues
16.3%
56.3%
20.7%

This quarterly email newsletter is sent out to the industry at no charge and with no agenda, in an attempt to disseminate diving research to our industry's professionals.

I hope you will read each one, send me questions or challenges. Thanks again for subscribing, and I look forward to hearing your comments from time-to-time.

Best Regards,
William Cline
President
Cline Group Advertising & Marketing, Est. 1990.

All data and text (c) 2009 William Cline/Cline Group, Inc. Reprint Rights are Given as Long As this Above Source is Credited.
"

 

[Garrobo]

Think that'll get them to lower their prices?