Post-pandemic comeback? Not yet! The dive industry is still crashing.

[Darcy Kieran]

A quick look at the USA and the Asia-Pacific region.

1) USA

In the 3rd quarter of this year, the number of entry-level scuba diving certifications issued to Americans is down from last year (-4.8%) and down from pre-pandemic levels (-9.8%). So far, there is no “post-pandemic comeback” for the dive industry. Instead, we are simply “back on the declining slope” we were on before COVID-19.



2) Asia-Pacific

In Asia-Pacific, the situation is significantly more disastrous, with open-water certifications down 42.5% in the first 9 months of this year compared to pre-COVID levels.



What say you?

 

[runsongas]

only will get worse with inflation issues and a recession looming. south pacific destinations will likely do ok if they can get traction with US divers taking advantage of a strong dollar, but new certifications will likely go even lower as european backpackers get scarcer.

 

[SlugLife]

In the US, you're probably mostly looking at various factors related to economics. For example, whether you can afford classes, dive-gear, rentals, etc.

Travel restrictions are also a major buzz-kill, as many of the exotic dive-locations are international and may involve restrictions on vaccinated status, mandatory-quarantines, or even if travel is easy people may not be motivated enough to figure out where such restrictions have gone away. Why pay for dive-classes, if you're only casually interested, and nearby waters are cold with poor-visibility?

Do people avoid SCUBA and SCUBA-classes due to covid-fear? I'm sure some small percentage of the population does.

10% is a fairly notable drop, but it's not necessarily surprising or industry-ending. And I think making the connection to covid (policy) is an appropriate one.

---

I'm not familiar with Asia-Pacific, but a wild-guess is that much of the people trained there may be tourists. The massive drop is probably because of a drop in tourism.

 

[Centrals]

Covid Cancellation

This was supposed to be our first night of a five night live aboard trip. We were notified late last night that the trip was cancelled because 7 of the 12 crew members have Covid along with 10 of the divers from the last trip. Such is luck in the time of Covid. They have promised full...

scubaboard.com

LoB is still being cancelled at the last minute.

 

[SlugLife]

Covid Cancellation

This was supposed to be our first night of a five night live aboard trip. We were notified late last night that the trip was cancelled because 7 of the 12 crew members have Covid along with 10 of the divers from the last trip. Such is luck in the time of Covid. They have promised full...

scubaboard.com

LoB is still being cancelled at the last minute.

That's a massive factor too that I missed. Your vacation may be ruined by covid causing cancelations of various sorts. That reminds me of another MAJOR factor.

Pre-Covid, I was starting to get into a certain style of dancing, taking 3-4 classes per week, and getting fairly good at it, and I bought early-bird tickets for all kinds of things including advanced classes, events, dance boat-parties, and more. Then around March 2020 every single one of these groups canceled their events, classes, etc and all of them refused to refund anything. I think I lost around $700 in total, across 5 vendors. I got burned hard enough that I haven't really gone back to the dance-scene since. If a studio stole $200 from me, I'm supposed to go back and spend more money, and hope the same thing doesn't happen again? Both my intellectual and emotional sides of my brain scream "hell no."

I have to imagine people who travel frequently ran into much of the same thing, and some of them just got burned out.

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

Has the dive industry investigated why the drop off? We have discussed this ad nauseum, but our collective opinions don't matter as we are the ones who continue to dive. The question is, why do people stop/not start? (and no, I'm not looking/interested in hearing people's opinions. Only actual studies done. If they have been done, I'd be interested then).

 

[Marie13]

When exactly did Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines open back up to tourists?

 

[Centrals]

I'm not familiar with Asia-Pacific, but a wild-guess is that much of the people trained there may be tourists. The massive drop is probably because of a drop in tourism.

Precisely.
Thailand is picking up.

Operators fret over Suvarnabhumi airport congestion

SAMUT PRAKAN: As more inbound flights are scheduled for the high season, tourism operators have raised concerns over airport congestion, with heavy traffic already clogging Suvarnabhumi airport during busy hours this week.

www.bangkokpost.com

Philippines? Peak season usually starts in late Nov early Dec until Easter so still every quiet at the moment.

 

[NothingClever]

@Darcy Kieran -

I greatly appreciate the hard work you're doing to capture the state of the industry and provide guiding proposals to stimulate improvement. You seem to be stepping in (as a one-man show) where the RSTC chooses not to. That is noble work.

If I were to join the industry in some capacity, your reports would figure significantly in my business planning, forecasting and assessments.

 

[Centrals]

When exactly did Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines open back up to tourists?

All these three countries have been ready for quite a while but the final decision rest on the other side.
However, flight to Indonesia and Philippines have not recovered yet.
Demand and supply?