big swells expected this weekend

[MaxBottomtime]

If the swells are from the south, Palos Verdes will be in the lee of Catalina. Swell models, which are occasionally right suggest flat seas.

http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/fp_lac_000.png

http://diver.net/weather/wimg.shtml?cdip.ucsd.edu/models/spc.gif

http://watchthewater.co.la.ca.us/beach.cfm?bid=17

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

If the swells are from the south, Palos Verdes will be in the lee of Catalina. Swell models, which are occasionally right suggest flat seas.

http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/fp_lac_000.png

http://diver.net/weather/wimg.shtml?cdip.ucsd.edu/models/spc.gif

http://watchthewater.co.la.ca.us/beach.cfm?bid=17

Max, your second and third links seem to show what's happening NOW, not what's gonna
happen Sat. and Sun.

I do agree that PV will get protection from Catalina in a SW swell.

You SoCal folks are really lucky to have the channel islands to give your mainlend
protection.

 

[MaxBottomtime]

Sorry. My intention was just that. Some of the models are right about 20% of the time, the rest are not. If the predicted swells are from the south, P.V. will be flat this weekend. The waves in La Jolla were getting pretty large last night, but it's a lake here.

 

[wetrat]

Thanks for the links Max. I was driving along the beach in San Diego North County (Carlsbad) and noticed the swells picking up tonight.

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

Sorry. My intention was just that. Some of the models are right about 20% of the time, the rest are not. If the predicted swells are from the south, P.V. will be flat this weekend. The waves in La Jolla were getting pretty large last night, but it's a lake here.

My experience is that the models are right most of the time, and get better as dive
day approaches.

If you have been using those last two links as a forecast, when they are actually a
NOWcast, I'm not surprised you think they are only about 20% accurate.

 

[MaxBottomtime]

I was referring to the cdip and Navy models. The SoCal forecasts are rarely correct.

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

I was referring to the cdip and Navy models. The SoCal forecasts are rarely correct.

My experience is that the NAVY WAM at
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_npac.html
and the CDIP models at
http://cdip.ucsd.edu//elnino_htmls/graphics/plot.gif and
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/fm_mon_xxx.png
(SoCal equivalent would be
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/?nav=recent&sub=forecast&xitem=fm_scb_xxx )
work quite well.

Are these the ones you are talking about only being right 20% of
the time? And how about some specific examples where they
weren't correct?

 

[MaxBottomtime]

(SoCal equivalent would be
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/?nav=recent&sub=forecast&xitem=fm_scb_xxx )
work quite well.

Are these the ones you are talking about only being right 20% of
the time? And how about some specific examples where they
weren't correct?

This one shows the same projection nearly all the time unless there's a storm.

 

[Kayak Diver]

I wouldn't blow off the weekend. It ain't gonna be 20' swells. I can't find any model
suggesting that. Looks more like 8' SW for you SoCal folks, which I consider diveable.
You'll have to pick your spots, and the SW swell is unusual, so this would be a good
weekend to dive those spots that get hammered by the usual NW swell but have
protection to the south.

Chuck, the waters down here get pretty dirty during a south swell. I've been up in your neck of the kelp forest during 6-8 ft swells with no problem...just paddled out and dove in the deeper, calmer waters. That's tougher to do down here.

 

[scubatomwetzel]

Maybe we'll get a good longshore current and wash the Red Tide out of town.
:yl2jump: