Allow Speculation?-Split from Catalina Diver died today

[drbill]

I will once again restate one of my big concerns about the groundless speculations (vs the ones that follow from the evidence). Please keep in mind how such speculation might affect the instructor and the friends and family of the victim. Personally, I found some of them to be potentially hurtful where I in that position. Those who are instructors or DMs should consider how they would feel were they in this position.

 

[Codyjp]

I'm sorry, but I can't help but find humor in your use of aviation to make your valid and excellent point. The fact is that Cody is a pilot and a flight instructor. So I find it ironic that he is so adamantly opposed to using speculation as part of the accident analysis process...especially when you point out that even the FAA considers it of value.

Cody, I mean no disrespect to you. I have tried to see your point, and I do understand where you are coming from. But I respectfully disagree that there is no value to ANY speculation in the accident analysis process, and that ALL speculation is careless, dangerous, and disrespectful. But as I said earlier, I would go along with your concept of having two accident forums, if it would eliminate these anti-speculation discussions in every A&I thread.

Again, you don't quite have enough information about the facts your speaking about.

When an aviation accident occurs the talking heads and 'specialists' get on TV and sell ad time while the speculate. The only valuable information that ever comes from the news is in the footage they might have from the accident which would help to ID the aircraft type and registration.

After that either the NTSB or FAA will complete an investigation. For simple stuff they can turn out a 'factual' report in a few days or a week. Then, depending on the complexity a final report will be released to the public. After the final reports are out then we are free to analyze the facts and speculate what lead up to the accident.

As an example I witnessed this accident. WPR09CA073 I though a lot of things but kept them to myself. I thought the pilot was dead for sure, however I wasn't in a position to be certain so I kept my mouth shut until the reports came out as to not spread any false rumors about what actually happened. What was reported on the news was all wrong.

Similarly when there was the midair in Long Beach there were lots of false reports floating around and unnecessary accusations. This type of reporting isn't a lot of fun when a friend or colleague might be resting at the bottom of the sea. It certainly sells internet add space and commercial air time but it tears the hearts out of those who are or could have been directly involved.

I wonder if there was a confidential way of releasing reports if the scuba industry would be more likely to publicly release data. If there was a unanimous was for reports to be gathered officially and release to the public for analysis we would be much better off.

If we can post the known circumstances that lead to an accident some months after the fact are gathered and then discuss the possibilities then it would be much more appropriate and respectful to all those involved. Quite frankly there are lots of things that have been said about many of the parties involved which are false, disrespectful, and hurtful. With that type of behavior fostered on a forum such as this you can guarantee that nobody who was involved will ever come to it to post.

Leeann, I'm not going to spend any more time or energy with this thread so please don't expect anymore rebuttals, I just don't have the time to waste on stuff like this. I've got a dive to pack for.

 

[Leejnd]

Cody, I claim no knowledge about anything to do with aviation. I didn't post any facts...I didn't claim to know any. I responded to something that someone else said about aviation. I have no idea if it's true or not, and didn't claim to. I just found the connection humorous. That's all...no need to make cutting remarks to me about how "again" (?) I don't have the "facts". I never claimed to have any facts, and I never posted any false information in this or the accident thread. So your snipe at me is completely misdirected, and uncalled for.

No rebuttals are necessary. You have your opinion, I have mine, there are lots of others on both sides, and plenty more in between. But at this point my real concern is that you are taking the fact that some people disagree with you WAY too personally. It's just not healthy!

I think I see part of the problem. You are having difficulty separating "providing false information" from "speculation". There have been some excellent posts in here that explain the differences very well. Even Ken's. I would encourage you to go back and read some of them. It might help you to shift your paradigm and see that we are not evil...our opinions on this topic are not evil...and that *all* speculation in accident threads is NOT bad. Some of it is healthy...some of it is valuable...some of it is simply inevitable. And, yes, some of it is useless. But that doesn't render it ALL useless.

It's your all-or-nothing, black-or-white stance that troubles me. There are shades of gray in relation to this issue. You should try to see them. You might find some light in the midst of all this darkness.

And seriously, I'm glad you are getting out and doing some diving...do something fun...lighten up...and stop taking it so personally when someone disagrees with you. It really isn't healthy.

And I can't help but wonder, if you don't have the time, why'd you come back and post at all?

 

[Codyjp]

Cody, I claim no knowledge about anything to do with aviation. I didn't post any facts...I didn't claim to know any. I responded to something that someone else said about aviation. I have no idea if it's true or not, and didn't claim to. I just found the connection humorous. That's all...no need to make cutting remarks to me about how "again" (?) I don't have the "facts". I never claimed to have any facts, and I never posted any false information in this or the accident thread. So your snipe at me is completely misdirected, and uncalled for.

No rebuttals are necessary. You have your opinion, I have mine, there are lots of others on both sides, and plenty more in between. But at this point my real concern is that you are taking the fact that some people disagree with you WAY too personally. It's just not healthy!

I think I see part of the problem. You are having difficulty separating "providing false information" from "speculation". There have been some excellent posts in here that explain the differences very well. Even Ken's. I would encourage you to go back and read some of them. It might help you to shift your paradigm and see that we are not evil...our opinions on this topic are not evil...and that *all* speculation in accident threads is NOT bad. Some of it is healthy...some of it is valuable...some of it is simply inevitable. And, yes, some of it is useless. But that doesn't render it ALL useless.

It's your all-or-nothing, black-or-white stance that troubles me. There are shades of gray in relation to this issue. You should try to see them. You might find some light in the midst of all this darkness.

And seriously, I'm glad you are getting out and doing some diving...do something fun...lighten up...and stop taking it so personally when someone disagrees with you. It really isn't healthy.

And I can't help but wonder, if you don't have the time, why'd you come back and post at all?

Am I going to end up getting a bill in the mail for this counseling and therapy?

 

[Leejnd]

Am I going to end up getting a bill in the mail for this counseling and therapy?

Nope, I offered that one gratis. :kiss2:

I hope you are going somewhere fun to dive!

 

[Codyjp]

Nope, I offered that one gratis. :kiss2:

I hope you are going somewhere fun to dive!

As you may assume it'll be a torturous training dive with not even an ounce of fun. Oh yeah, there will be lots of pain too.

No really, I'm sure it will be an octo mom and octo egg filled extravaganza at Vets. If I'm lucky they will be hatching and there will be little octos everywhere and I can while away the evening counting little bitty octo legs. 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48....

 

[Leejnd]

Sounds like fun...and it sounds like I need to get myself down to Vets! I haven't been diving there in well over a year. It's a bit of a haul for me. Enjoy all the itty bitty octo legs!

 

[W8less]

Whoa,

Going through this thread is like reading a court deposition with multiple inquisitors and responders. If some one asked me about the original incident, I would probably just say "I don't know".
It seems like the divers who choose not to speculate, didn't and their absence in the thread is apparent.

It seems to be our nature that "blame" has to be the final outcome. That serves no purpose whatever. As a dive community, we morn the loss, learn from the facts and do our utmost to prevent in the future.

 

[Rick Inman]

Over the years reading the A&I threads here on SB, I have read posts with wild, found-less speculation, guesses, over-dramatizing, blame, accusations and random stabs at stating the cause of the accidents without facts or information. Because of reading these threads, I has assessed my own diving and made changes. Because of these threads, there have been occations when I have:

• Decided not to dive solo, but dived with a buddy.
• Stayed within my training and certification.
• Called a dive due to equipment issues.
• Called a dive because of how my health was.
• Called a dive because I just didn't feel "right".
• Thumbed a dive before it was over for a bunch of reasons.
• Stayed outside of overheads I was not trained for.
• Deco-ed longer.
• Double checked valves before jumping off the boat.
• Slowed my work load as my breathing rate increased.
• A bunch of other things I can't specifically remember right now.

I cannot prove that these threads have saved me from becoming one of these threads, because you can't prove what doesn't happen. I only know that even wild fact-less guesses posted over the years has made me look at my own diving, think about it, talk about it, make changes, and made me a better, safer diver. Maybe saved my life and the life of others.

So, for the sake of those who live, and so as to not take away the only possible meaning and positive result of another diver's death, keep posting away your opinions.

I wonder about those who find nothing to improve their own diving from these threads.

That's just MHO.

 

[Leejnd]

Rick, thank you. I cannot imagine anyone else at this point feeling the need to ask the question "What value is there in speculation in A&I threads?". I think the answers are all right in your post.

I am fully convinced that there are numerous occasions in which something that I learned from all of the discussions in A&I threads, including the speculative ones, has either saved my life or caused me to avoid a mistake.

Some may say that I should already know all the things I've learned from these threads. And perhaps I should. But I'm human, with yer basic flawed human brain, and I forget things. (This seems to be happening to me a lot more as I get older! What is up with that?) What these discussions have done for me is to help me, in a very dramatic way (since we're often dealing with a diver fatality), re-learn or reinforce these lessons. And that is a GOOD thing.

I think a lot of the objections to these speculation discussions would go away if people would practice two simple rules:

1) Try to remember that family/friends will probably read these threads, so be considerate in how you say things
2) Never post information as fact, if you don't know for sure that it IS fact.

Item #2 is even contained in the "Special Rules" sticky in the A&I forum:

(6) If you are presenting information from a source other than your own eyes and ears, cite the source.
(7) If your post is your hypothesis, theory, or a "possible scenario," identify it as such.

I would like to see Scubaboard add the other item, about sensitivity in your wording, as a "special rule" as well. Perhaps that would stop the inevitable "anti-speculation" rants that seem to happen in every A&I thread.

Another thing I would like to see in the Special Rules sticky is something stating Scubaboard's position on speculation in those threads, so that these kinds of diversionary discussions don't even get started. The moment somebody jumps in with the requisite "Will everyone please stop speculating?" then a Mod could refer the person to the sticky...and we could get on with the discussion.

So here are my suggestions for two new additions to the "Special Rules" sticky...in red:

(1) You may not release any names here, until after the names have appeared in the public domain (articles, news reports, sherrif's report etc.) The releasing report must be cited. Until such public release, the only name you may use in this forum is your own.
(2) Off topic posts will be removed and off topic comments will be edited.
(3) No flaming, name calling or otherwise attacking other posters. You may attack ideas; you may not attack people.
(4) No trolling; no blamestorming. Mishap analysis does not lay blame, it finds causes.
(5) No "condolences to the family" here. Please use our Passings Forum for these kinds of messages.
(6) If you are presenting information from a source other than your own eyes and ears, cite the source.
(7) If your post is your hypothesis, theory, or a "possible scenario," identify it as such.
(8) While posting unverified information as fact is not acceptable, speculation about possibilities is. Speculative discussions are allowed in this forum, provided they are identified as such.
(9) Be considerate of the fact that family, friends and others involved in the incident may read this thread; before posting, think about how your words will impact them.