Look out for a Norte on Monday

[Dave Dillehay]

Wind Guru predics a moderate Norte on Monday. Be sure to get your diving in on Sunday.

Dave Dillehay

Aldora Divers

 

[gopbroek]

21 Hrs from tomorrow mornings dive schedule and Wind Guru is showing a decent El Norte, hopefully it shifts a little early and Tuesday is spared on the west side. Looks like a good day for chilling on the beach at the Rasta Bar. Dave are you running a boat out of Chen Rio tomorrow?

 

[dmc78]

What kind of wind speed does it take to close down the diving? I will flying in next Saturday. Looking at the long range forecast for the following week its predicting NNE winds from 2-7 mph early Monday into Tuesday.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

yes, we'll have two boats over there.

Dave Dillehay

Aldora Divers

 

[gopbroek]

What kind of wind speed does it take to close down the diving? I will flying in next Saturday. Looking at the long range forecast for the following week its predicting NNE winds from 2-7 mph early Monday into Tuesday.

There seems to be no magic formula but while the port captain seemed overly cautious earlier this fall he seems to be taking a more pragmatic approach lately. NNE is not normally a problem as the island shields the wind from that direction, N, NNW, NW & W are the main concern. Several weeks back I was down and the winds were NNW at around 5-7 KNTs, there was a little chop but not dangerous but I was afraid the PC would close it but he did not and the weather improved as the morning progressed and we had a great dive.
I see a lot of 'next week' Wind Guru projections from the North that shift as the date gets closer, I would not get concerned until 24-48 hours prior with N at more than 10 KNTs and then it is still a crap shoot.

 

[deepsea21]

If I planned my dive days around what Wind Guru predicted more than 2 days out I'd never be diving as I would have canceled predicted windy rainw days that turned out to be perfect only to book calm sunny days to have it raining and blowing 25kts with the port closed. Never dive with an operation that doesn't allow you to cancel the evening before dives are scheduled without penalty.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Dear Deepsea21,

The version of Windguru I have does not predict rainy days. Only windspeed and direction, both of which have a part in which the port may, or may not be closed. Today may still be iffy a bit later. The only reason I post these messages is to provide a planning heads up and this is only the second time this season I have posted a warning. The first time proved very accurate. BTW Windguru has, by our observation predicted a norte only twice this season. Both times right on, how could that keep you from ever diving?

Ive been watching the weather here for 22 years and for the last 10 using Windguru as my go to source. 25 out of 30 days in norte season it predicts good diving conditions, that is a fact.

Dave Dillehay

Aldora Divers


PS I don't know of a decent shop on the island that won't let you cancel the night before. If the weather is actually bad or even "iffy" we let our divers cancel in the morning!

 

[gopbroek]

So for an after action report, what was the status of the port today?

 

[MMM]

It was open this morning. I did two dives but it was a rough, wet ride back. The captain closed the port just as we were getting in the water for the second dive. After our dive we headed back to caleta as it was too rough to drop people off in town. There were several boats also coming in, on our wake.

FWIW, there was also a big storm last night; I forgot to close the sliding door to my bedroom and consequently the area rug was soaked when I got up this morning. The wind would have had to come from the south or southwest to blow rain into our bedroom.

So for an after action report, what was the status of the port today?

 

[deepsea21]

So WindGuru was right (this time with 24 hours notice). Again, I find it to be almost worthless more than 2 days out but, as always, YMMV. Years ago I used to listen to NOAA marine weather forecasts which were usually accurate 24-48 hours out but long range forecasts... Absolute guesses based on the snake oil some very expensive government funded super computers spit out. As an old deepsea fisherman once told me, "If you listen to those long range forecasts you'll never leave the dock... The ocean is different and unpredictable every day".

---------- Post added January 4th, 2016 at 06:18 PM ----------

It was open this morning. I did two dives but it was a rough, wet ride back. The captain closed the port just as we were getting in the water for the second dive. After our dive we headed back to caleta as it was too rough to drop people off in town. There were several boats also coming in, on our wake.

FWIW, there was also a big storm last night; I forgot to close the sliding door to my bedroom and consequently the area rug was soaked when I got up this morning. The wind would have had to come from the south or southwest to blow rain into our bedroom.

Better to be safe than sorry... I think it was 4 years ago we went on a dive trip to the FL Keys and it was blowing all week (They don't "close ports" in the FL keys). Well, no dive boats were going out but one did and it sank with 2 passengers lost in the cabin. If I see those rolling white caps and spray coming up over the sea wall and onto the oceanside sidewalk in San Miguel I'll kick back and watch the "balloon heads" stumble by from the deck for the day. That in itself can be quite entertaining.