Is the "increased risk" quantifiable?I used to use a fatty 100AL on air. As my air consumption improved, I found that I constantly bumped into deco on air, because I was staying longer at depth. I could not use the entire tank on the profile without adding deco stops or going up. The bigger tank ran me into deco and, I would assume, raised my risk of DCS. As 100AL nitrox was not available, I moved to 80 nitrox and never get very close to deco. Additionally the fillers never fully fill 100AL. So I was already 10% short. On a 120 air, I would bust the crap outta NDL, I would guess. So in some fashion, bigger tanks would increase my DCS risk on the same profile. So apples to apples, yea maybe the risk is greater?
As far as I know, as long as you stay within your NDL, the risk of DCS is pretty much the same - "undeserved" hits happen at the same statistical frequency, whether you push your profile to 1 min of your NDL or 10 min.
The "increased risk" here comes from the potential to unwittingly exceed your NDL and then fail to do mandatory deco stops. As long as the diver is aware, the "risk" shouldn't increase at all.
On the other hand, with more air, there is a less of a risk of running OOA. Again, this is the same type of risk. Aware divers will start their ascent well before they run too low on air. As long as the diver is aware, the "risk" shouldn't increase at all with less air.
So we're really only talking about unaware divers here: divers on 120s who don't watch their NDL versus divers on 80s who don't watch their gauges.
The question is, what "risk" is greater? The risk of exceeding one's NDL, missing mandatory stop(s), and getting DCS as a result versus the risk of running OOA, not having a buddy close by, and doing an OOA ascent or simply breathing water and drowning.
I was always taught that it's better to risk DCS, which may be highly treatable on the surface, versus running OOA and drowning underwater, but YMMV.