Well this sucks.

[Joneill]

The only think that refutes this is that they got rid of it in China without a vaccine. So it is possible...

I was not talking about China and their main method of early control was immediate and harsh lockdowns that are quite difficult to implement and enforce in free societies. It is also not completely gone in China as they have had a recent spat of new cases.

In addition, without a vaccine, China could easily have issues moving forward as this virus is unlikely to just disappear on it's own - which is why China has already given experimental vaccines to over 1 million healthcare workers and other high risk individuals and plans to roll out a large scale vaccination program.

 

[Storker]

they got rid of it in China without a vaccine.

And in NZ

 

[ontdiver]

While the political part of this discussion is fraught with challenges, geographic control and/or isolation combined with "...the shared confidence between the government and the public." in the case of South Korea, as an example, has certainly had an impact for those countries who have been able to bring the infection rate under control.

Clearly, we are all frustrated and a bit frayed around the edges at times. While I hesitate to suggest that we need to shout, cry, laugh and have a group hug, it may just keep us sane for a moment or two.

 

[Storker]

it's no so simple for many people to just "stay the f at home" as you say.

I know. In that respect I'm insanely privileged to have a job that allows me to work from home, even if working from home sucks after the first couple weeks.

Some people can work from home, some people (like e.g. grocery store workers, bus drivers or healthcare workers, IOW those who do the important jobs in society and should be better paid for that) just can't. But everyone can refrain from going out for drinks, shopping at the mall, getting your nails done or whatever which increases the number of random contacts you make. And if your contract allows you to take a sick leave day or two if you feel a little under the weather, until you don't suspect that you've got the virus, so much the better. But that's a question of respecting workers' rights and giving them decent contracts, which I understand isn't equally popular in all parts of the world.

Maybe I should start saying "stay the f at home (as much as your necessary obligations allow), but that's a rather clumsy soundbite.

I have this naïve, exaggerated trust in my fellow humans which makes me like to believe that the part inside the parentheses pretty much goes without saying. Sadly, it seems as if I have to revise that attitude.

 

[Joneill]

I know. In that respect I'm insanely privileged to have a job that allows me to work from home, even if working from home sucks after the first couple weeks.

Some people can work from home, some people (like e.g. grocery store workers, bus drivers or healthcare workers, IOW those who do the important jobs in society and should be better paid for that) just can't. But everyone can refrain from going out for drinks, shopping at the mall, getting your nails done or whatever which increases the number of random contacts you make. And if your contract allows you to take a sick leave day or two if you feel a little under the weather, until you don't suspect that you've got the virus, so much the better. But that's a question of respecting workers' rights and giving them decent contracts, which I understand isn't equally popular in all parts of the world.

Maybe I should start saying "stay the f at home (as much as your necessary obligations allow), but that's a rather clumsy soundbite.

I have this naïve, exaggerated trust in my fellow humans which makes me like to believe that the part inside the parentheses pretty much goes without saying. Sadly, it seems as if I have to revise that attitude.

I agree with most of that - but I lost that naive trust in my fellow humans a long time ago - many people are incredibly selfish as has been demonstrated in this last year. Hopefully, broad vaccination against COVID will get us past that unfortunate reality and back to some normalcy of life.

** edited to clarify reference was to a COVID vaccine to avoid further lame comments.

 

[deeper thoughts]

I hope you are able to enjoy your trip shortly.

 

[Lorenzoid]

. . . But everyone can refrain from going out for drinks, shopping at the mall, getting your nails done or going on a Bonaire dive trip and whatever which increases the number of random contacts you make. . . .

Improved that.

Diving is a hobby, not my livelihood. For me, refraining from taking dive trips to distant destinations in 2020-2021 is a relatively small sacrifice. I hope some combination of accurate rapid testing and vaccination facilitates dive travel returning to normal by mid-2021, but for now, continuing to hunker down close to home is my minor sacrifice for the greater good.

 

[Storker]

broad vaccination will get us past that unfortunate reality and back to some normalcy of life.

Is there a vaccination against stupidity being developed? Whohoo!

 

[rmssetc]

My wife and I are thinking July as a likely time by which we and enough others will have been vaccinated that we won’t be transmission vectors if we resume dive travel. Just a few more months.

I am not a Dr. or public health professional, but I do work at a major hospital and try, as a lay-person, to stay informed about details about the various vaccines.

My understanding is that the current selection of vaccines are [unexpectedly] good at preventing symptoms. In other words, a vaccinated person may carry the virus but they will [probably] not have symptoms of the disease. The vaccines do not prevent infection and do not prevent transmission to others. Given that the vaccines are ~95% effective, that means that approximately 5% of vaccinated people who catch COVID-19 will show signs of the disease, ranging from aching muscles, mild/temporary neurological symptoms to death (2~9% of affected).


I genuinely welcome corrections (preferably with citations) to my understanding stated above.


As divers, we all make risk management decisions. Putting the COVID info into different terms, what is your level of comfort in a scenario where:

• Of 100 dives on a six-pack (ie., close daily exposure outside the water to 6~8 other people for extended periods), would you accept a 5% risk that you would have some type of DCS event, where ~30% of those events require serious medical care and ~5% of those events are fatal?

As someone who's privileged to be healthy, covered by medical insurance, and living in what is nominally a highly developed country, it is likely that I will have access to a vaccine by July. I have much, much less confidence that a vaccine will be as widely available to the people who I'd contact during a dive vacation. This means there's a real chance that I could become infected, be completely asymptomatic, but that my presence would put others around me at risk while I am unaffected. To put this in terms of diving:

• Of 100 dives on a six-pack, would you consider it an acceptable risk that your diving causes someone else a 5% chance of a DCS event while you have no symptoms?

 

[Lorenzoid]

. . . The vaccines do not prevent infection and do not prevent transmission to others. . . .

Wow--I was completely unaware of that. Then the covid vaccine is different in this respect from the vaccines most of us are familiar with, such as flu, for example?

I may have misunderstood, but I recall talk of something along the lines of a covid "vaccination passport" that would clear a person for travel. (Or if one has had covid and recovered, an "immunity passport.") But if vaccination (or infection and recovery) doesn't prevent you from becoming (re-)infected and transmitting it to others, what would be the point?

I have one of those Yellow Cards (International Certificate of Vaccination) that I have kept up to date for decades, showing I have been vaccinated against things like Yellow Fever, typhoid, hepatitis, etc. Would covid be inappropriate to include on that kind of certificate because it apparently doesn't protect against me transmitting the virus to others?