Tulamben, Mount Agung, Current Situation...

[charlier]

....maybe I should head down to the airport and give everyone waiting for the 5pm flight to DPS a free lecture on Volcanos of note in the Indonesian Archipelago - anyone ever heard of Tambora? Krakatoa? No?
Stay safe everyone

Or simply communicate the effects of the 1963 eruption on a much more sparsely populated Bali.

 

[billt4sf]

Oh ya? So you are feeling it there as well, have you felt many of them? They don't reach as far as Sanur fortunately.

I have felt nothing here in Ubud. Others say they have though.

 

[toris1968]

If the volcano does erupt how long will it take to get things back up and running? Just curious cause got a trip booked for December. Not a volcano disaster expert so don’t know how long the disaster will affect your communities and your businesses. Stay safe. Thanks

 

[gekodivebali]

Toris, I don't believe anyone, not even an a world renowned volcano disaster expert, could reply to such a question. Sorry, but, at one point, one just needs to accept that one does not know and will not know until later on...

 

[billt4sf]

If the volcano does erupt how long will it take to get things back up and running? Just curious cause got a trip booked for December. Not a volcano disaster expert so don’t know how long the disaster will affect your communities and your businesses. Stay safe. Thanks

You better cancel your trip and let those of us here on the island take our pickings from the soon-to-be heavily discounted offerings!

Ok, really..I agree with Geko. No one knows. It obviously depends on the type, strength, and timing of the eruption (if any). In the '63 eruption there were several events, each of which was like a month apart.

- Bill

 

[Centrals]

If the volcano does erupt how long will it take to get things back up and running? Just curious cause got a trip booked for December. Not a volcano disaster expert so don’t know how long the disaster will affect your communities and your businesses. Stay safe. Thanks

The 2010 eruption in Iceland caused disruption for 10m travellers in 20 countries over a period of several months.
I will never complaint about the typhoon in Philippines.

 

[Diving Dubai]

Latest from Alex at Villa Alba

Latest on Agung is that depending on the information gathered from additional seismic sensors that they are installing we may be allowed back to Tulamben. But then again if there is further activity, well we wont !! Talking about a decision being made on the 1st Oct....

 

[Dan]

If the volcano does erupt how long will it take to get things back up and running? Just curious cause got a trip booked for December. Not a volcano disaster expert so don’t know how long the disaster will affect your communities and your businesses. Stay safe. Thanks

We have data from 1963 to rely on. There was a News Conference for the Anticipation of Mount Agung Eruption on Sep 25, 2017 (2 days ago) in Jakarta, where they reviewed its 1963 eruption. The presentation was in Bahasa Indonesia, so I just post the 1st 2 pages of it, below. You can see on the 2nd page it says the eruption lasted for almost a year, from 18 Feb, 1963 to 27 Jan, 1964.

Let's hope it won't erupt and the tremors are easing down in the next few months. I'll be there in December 2-5 too, as part of the trip to Indonesia.

I have a group of 13 divers going on liveaboard from Ambon to Sorong from Nov 20 to Dec 2. On Dec 2, 7 of us will fly home to Jakarta & Houston. The remaining 6 (including me) will spend 3 days in Bali. If the Mount Agung situation is not good, we may cancel the trip to Bali & join the rest of the group going home back to Houston.

 

[Nettie-NZ]

No one at this stage what type of eruption may (or may not) occur. Pyroclastic flows, ash, lava?
Evidently the 1963 eruption lasted for a year, but as we in New Zealand know, just because a volcano is in a state of eruption does not mean that it is hazardous to a wide area. It is an ash cloud that is hazardous to air traffic, but often air traffic can be safely routed around the cloud - just has occurred here in New Zealand with Ruapehu and Tongariro. Pyroclastic flows are very hazardous, but the distance they can travel isn’t so great - this will be one of the deciding factors in the current evacuation zones.
Until Agung's eruption really gets underway I don’t think anyone knows what will happen and even then trying to predict how long it will last? Again it’s a case of wait and see.
I just hope that it doesn’t go on for too long and that people stay safe and a minimum of damage is done to the diving areas close to Gunung Agung - afterall the 1963 eruption put the Liberty in the water where she is now

 

[charlier]

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am firmly double parked in the “wait and see” camp. As Nettie posted, at this point we really can not accurately forecast to eruptive frequency, magnitude, or duration.