The tropics are waking up

[tursiops]

This is the THIRD thread on Bret. It barely deserve even one thread.

Tropical Storm Bret is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/19/weather/tropical-storm-bret-windward-islands/index.html

scubaboard.com

Caribe Storm Season 2023, June: TS Bret

Predicted to remain as a‘’Tropical Storm”, not Hurricane. That means rain and diminished or curtailed diving. An unusual track, but more common at this point early in the season. Most will later come into Caribbean basin further North with a clockwise (NE) lift or spin.

scubaboard.com

 

[gamon]

This is the THIRD thread on Bret. It barely deserve even one thread.

Bret may feel otherwise.

 

[tursiops]

Bret may feel otherwise.

The NHC forecast discussion says:

Although there is a small possibility of slight additional strengthening, continued moderate mid-level shear is likely to keep Bret's intensity hovering around 55 kt for the next 24 hours as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Most of the intensity guidance supports this scenario. After that time, stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to develop as Bret nears an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea, and those conditions are expected to lead to weakening after the cyclone crosses the Lesser Antilles island chain. Global model fields continue to show Bret degenerating into an open trough by Saturday, however a 72-hour forecast point is still shown in this forecast for continuity purposes.​

 

[gamon]

Bret might not know all of that.

 

[AdivingBel]

Bret might not know all of that.

Bret is an uninformed idiot and should dissipate immediately.

 

[gamon]

Bred can't hear you.

 

[ggunn]

This is the THIRD thread on Bret. It barely deserve even one thread.

Tropical Storm Bret is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/19/weather/tropical-storm-bret-windward-islands/index.html

scubaboard.com

Caribe Storm Season 2023, June: TS Bret

Predicted to remain as a‘’Tropical Storm”, not Hurricane. That means rain and diminished or curtailed diving. An unusual track, but more common at this point early in the season. Most will later come into Caribbean basin further North with a clockwise (NE) lift or spin.

scubaboard.com

It's the only one in the Cozumel forum (the only one I visit regularly), and even though as of now TS Bret appears to be destined to stay to the south of the island, it still bears watching as long as it is in the Caribbean. Hurricanes do not always behave as predicted.

 

[gopbroek]

"El Niño has arrived.
The U.N. weather agency on Tuesday declared the onset of the major climate phenomenon, warning its return paves the way for a likely spike in global temperatures and extreme weather conditions."

Per the national weather service:
"El Niño events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes than normal form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season."

 

[ggunn]

It's early yet, but...

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[ggunn]

'Tis the season...