The Swine Flu thing...

[mstevens]

Originally Mexico reported a 5% death rate and deaths among otherwise normally healthy people. That is why I freaked out, and why WHO and CDC sounded the alarm. Didn't matter which country it was coming from.

Except that WHO and CDCP didn't at first sound the alarm particularly any more loudly than they have with numerous other health issues over the years. I read MWMR Weekly Reports well... weekly, and have for 20+ years. Sure, they're full of stuff about H1N1 NOW, but prior to the news blitz the reports were quite measured and reasonable - no "alarm" being sounded at all compared to other infectious disease groupings all year. Once the news media started bleating, responses from health organizations had to be louder just to be heard.

Yes, it seems noteworthy that initially a 5% death rate was reported, especially given the age group of those most effective (reminiscent of the "Spanish 'flu" of 1918). However, there was a 75% death rate in crashes on our local highways over the weekend. That's 3 dead in a 2-car crash involving 2 people in each car. That's the problem with small samples: they don't provide statistically significant information. You'll note that as the number of reported infections increases the death rate within Mexico has been dropping. What that means is that as sample size increases we're getting a better picture of the real risks.

To me the scariest part is that the public health measures that authorities all over, including Mexico have been pushing are for the most part very basic, yet we tend not to follow them unless we're terrified of dying. The biggest example is staying home when you're sick - Americans tend to view showing up for work snorfling and horking as some sort of badge of honor.

I promise you more healthy young Mexicans have died of not wearing seatbelts, smoking, drinking, or even using ladders this year than of H1N1 influenza and you don't hear anyone panicking about that.

 

[mstevens]

I read that WHO was guessing it had to do with reporting bias (many milder cases not being reported) and with delays in seeking treatment leading to a higher fatality rate.

Exactly. Establishing just what virus caused a case of influenza is far from trivial and is not routinely done. It's not like culturing bacteria, either, and takes quite some time to do. The symptoms all pretty much look the same unless someone gets into serious distress (this outbreak was originally reported simply as a cluster of severe respiratory illness), which means that at first only the most serious cases even get reported at all.

 

[dive pro]

Hola to all, had an awesome dive today saw a huge loggerhead turtle, but guess what???
Heeeeere's Jooohnny, State Government office, not the Por esto news paper, has issued a report as follows:
1 case in Chetumal, cured back home, 1 case in Felipe Carrillo puerto not confirmed Influenza A, 1 case in Cancun they had since the 23rd with synthoms but had not confirmed and reconfirmed, was sent home cured, there are other cases being studied (no numbers) that is it.

My personal thinking, I checked on my personal insurance coverage, hospitals etc. I called a family member about the treatment in case I got it and I wash hands a lot I insist that staff and divers wash them and use the hand sanitizer or alcohol at the shop. I still think it is no time to freak out or anything we keep confirming and getting reservations for several weeks to follow, also we have gotten cancelations, several of them.
Here is the World's Health Org. update for today May 4th my bday too......they still have no restrictions to traveling

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 14
4 May 2009 -- As of 18:00 GMT, 4 May 2009, 21 countries have officially reported 1085 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The United States has reported 286 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (101), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (4), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (4), Italy (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (6), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (54), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (18).

It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site
Daily updates will be posted on this site.






Corporate linksContacts | E-mail scams | Employment | FAQs | Feedback | Privacy | RSS feeds
Ž© WHO 2009

 

[lamont]

Except that WHO and CDCP didn't at first sound the alarm particularly any more loudly than they have with numerous other health issues over the years. I read MWMR Weekly Reports well... weekly, and have for 20+ years. Sure, they're full of stuff about H1N1 NOW, but prior to the news blitz the reports were quite measured and reasonable - no "alarm" being sounded at all compared to other infectious disease groupings all year. Once the news media started bleating, responses from health organizations had to be louder just to be heard.

yeah, but you're just pointing out that the media loves a good panic.

Yes, it seems noteworthy that initially a 5% death rate was reported, especially given the age group of those most effective (reminiscent of the "Spanish 'flu" of 1918). However, there was a 75% death rate in crashes on our local highways over the weekend. That's 3 dead in a 2-car crash involving 2 people in each car. That's the problem with small samples: they don't provide statistically significant information. You'll note that as the number of reported infections increases the death rate within Mexico has been dropping. What that means is that as sample size increases we're getting a better picture of the real risks.

you're pointing out what became obvious almost immediately after cases started showing up in the US.

To me the scariest part is that the public health measures that authorities all over, including Mexico have been pushing are for the most part very basic, yet we tend not to follow them unless we're terrified of dying. The biggest example is staying home when you're sick - Americans tend to view showing up for work snorfling and horking as some sort of badge of honor.

i won't argue with you there. we just got done with normal seasonal influenza season (peaked late in WA state) and tons of people were showing up to work when they should have stayed home. the recession doesn't help since there's not enough people to pick up the slack.

I promise you more healthy young Mexicans have died of not wearing seatbelts, smoking, drinking, or even using ladders this year than of H1N1 influenza and you don't hear anyone panicking about that.

yeah, but big picture since influenza kills 36,000 a year in the US that actually cuts both ways. yes, it doesn't mean we need to panic about the deaths now, but next flu season we could risk a 2-3x uptick in fatalities which is an excess of 30,000-60,000 deaths and its perfectly appropriate to take a more aggressive approach to influenza next year -- get as many people as possible vaccinated and raise awareness about staying home and not spreading the virus. the southern hemisphere influenza season could also be a bad one this year since a vaccine will probably not be produced in time. it isn't anything worrying for normal, healthy people but they can take steps to reduce the impact to their productivity from influenza next year and take steps to reduce their spreading the virus into vulnerable populations.

 

[Mawg]

..........................................

You have a private message.

 

[lamont]

You have a private message.

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.

 

[pilot fish]

What I find sad about some of the posts from the" this is no big deal " crowd, is they seem to be oblivious, or ignorant, to the meaning of the word CONTAGION = 1. the communication of disease by direct or indirect contact.
2. a disease so communicated.
3. the medium by which a contagious disease is transmitted.
4. harmful or undesirable contact or influence.
5. the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person: a contagion of indifference

 

[Mawg]

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.

I would have expected nothing less from you. Now it is there for all to see.

 

[DandyDon]

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport; and wonder if that might not be a good idea permanently at airports around the world. Folks should probably not get on airplanes sick with a fever.

Will ours now become a whole new world?
Such as the world changed after 9/11?

Saludos from sunny Cozumel,
Bill

Sounds like a good idea, huh?

WHO already investigated for that and didn't find a correlation with bad air.

Yeah, I tried to suggest air quality in Mexico City a week ago, and while it is bad and must affect overall health, the real experts can tell the difference on how other flu strains have affected the population.

I think they took our temperature when we left Cozumel yesterday, either that or they just held a highlighter pen to our forehead.

Didn't bother me at all, but the rectal thermometer test we got upon arrival in Houston was a bit much.

TSA getting jollies again?

That's a holdover from SARS. It was found an ineffective way of screening.

Like I said, sounded like a good idea. False Science often does.

Just what we need... another delay at the airport! However, like with 9/11, if it keeps us safer, I'm all for it but I'm not sure this is the right approach. I seem to run hot at the airport because of aggravation.

Haha you think that the TSA screening is safer? Say, I got an email from Nigeria and I need some venture capital. We can be rich. Interested?

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.

:lol:​

I've been looking for improvements to make from this learning experience. My favorite all-you-can-eat cafeteria chain where I've been eating off and on for 50 years started putting sani-wipes out at the end of the start of the buffet line finally, so you can wash your hands before handling your food, rather than waiting until you get to your table...

Click any pic for larger...


It was empty...!

​

I used my bottle of sani-fluid I've started carrying and ordered from this fellow, who may not have the mask concept down yet...

​

But we're still organizing ideas...

 

[dive pro]

"secretaria de salud" is the news media?

you have a pm