captain:We all have read the stories of the person whose car runs off the road without being seen and that person is trapped and unable to summons help and is found hours or days later. If it happened to me I would have to deal with it alone. If I am not found and die in my car am I any less dead than if I were solo diving and got trapped. The point is I accept the general risk in both activities but unless the risk of a particular event happening is known how can risk management help me in any and all circumstances.
Captain
Well.....understanding the risk and accepting it are certainly important keys for deciding for yourself if you should be doing something or not.
Scott started off asking for information about estimating his risk. What I hoped to communicate in this thread is that although the *chance* of something happening doesn't probably change much with solo diving the *consequences* should something happen could be exacerbated by being alone. That's not to suggest that you can't accept that risk. We all play the chance/consequence game every day. It's part of life.
As far as mitigating the risk (in answer to your question about how risk managment can help you) there are two basic approaches. Either eliminate the *chance* element or soften the *consequence* element. The buddy system looks to mitigating the *consequences* by putting you in the water with a potential rescuer on every dive. The solo diver's motto is to eliminate the *chance* element with equipment and procedures so that we never have to deal with "consequence".
So in getting back to what Scott was on about, he (we) should look at the range of things that have a reasonable *chance* of happening (which can be found in the DAN report) and either look for reasonable ways to eliminate the chance or soften the conseqence. The key here, I think is to keep it pragmatic or you'll take all the fun out of diving.
A perfect illustration of what I mean is taking a bail-out bottle. What bail-out source does is effectively eliminate (barring the bizarre) the *chance* that you'll run out of air. And I think if you (or Scott) were to go through the list of things that you see on the DAN report and think of strageties to either mitigate the chance or the consequence. The remaining items are things you need to accept if you are going to solo.
For myself, for example, if I encur a deco obligation solo I want a big enough reserve of back-gas to deco out with *either* my deco gas *or* my backgas. Normally your buddy carries this reserve but since the *consequence* of a lost deco gas isn't something I'm willing to accept I eliminate the chance. What Dorsetboy said in his post about having O2 on hand is his way of softening the consequences.... Either one is a risk management technique for the same risk.
And like this you can go through a whole list of things and decide for yourself what you accept and what you don't and what you feel is possible and/or necessary to do about it.
So.....This is a big load of theory and I hope I didn't put you to sleep with it. Is it any clearer now?
R..