LiteHedded
Contributor
It's true.Wut??
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It's true.Wut??
The point about statistics and that this is an old discussion are both right. Here is the thing--every diver who has ever died in a cave died because they stopped living. The proximate cause is usually causes and accident analysis is useful, but oft times based on speculation and conditioned on the categories one is allowed to work with.
The most important data we don't have is the counter-factual, namely, how many cave divers would have died in caves but for the fact that their team mate pointed something out that prevented a cascade of causes leading to a fatality? That is really the key statistic and we don't know the answer.
What we do know is that the cave environment is one of the least forgiving environments for diver error or equipment failure. We also know that training with a team mate who makes solid decisions and who is concerned with personal and team safety will provide a second set of eyes and brains which will enhance safety on average. There will be the exception where the action of one causes the team to spiral out of control, but on average safety will be enhanced. This is the lesson of the WKKP.
So, I think that saying that solo cave diving is somehow not much riskier than team cave diving is really distorting the reality and could lead to someone reading this thread thinking there is little to no difference between the two. We all take risks. We should not kid ourselves as to what they are.
The point about statistics and that this is an old discussion are both right. Here is the thing--every diver who has ever died in a cave died because they stopped living. The proximate cause is usually causes and accident analysis is useful, but oft times based on speculation and conditioned on the categories one is allowed to work with.
The most important data we don't have is the counter-factual, namely, how many cave divers would have died in caves but for the fact that their team mate pointed something out that prevented a cascade of causes leading to a fatality? That is really the key statistic and we don't know the answer.
What we do know is that the cave environment is one of the least forgiving environments for diver error or equipment failure. We also know that training with a team mate who makes solid decisions and who is concerned with personal and team safety will provide a second set of eyes and brains which will enhance safety on average. There will be the exception where the action of one causes the team to spiral out of control, but on average safety will be enhanced. This is the lesson of the WKKP.
So, I think that saying that solo cave diving is somehow not much riskier than team cave diving is really distorting the reality and could lead to someone reading this thread thinking there is little to no difference between the two. We all take risks. We should not kid ourselves as to what they are.
I think MalibuJerry is spot-on . . . what we do not know, and can never know, is how many accidents are prevented by someone on the dive team noticing an issue that could have led to a fatality, and helping the team correct it before it spiraled out of control. We can't know that, because nobody reports those things, and because it's probably seldom clear how much trouble a given issue might have caused.
I do know of solo cave diving deaths that were caused by running out of gas and by getting lost (one sometimes leading to the other). Would the diver not have made the wrong turn if his buddy was there to say, "No, THAT way!"
I know I have situational awareness problems in caves that are fairly bad at 100 feet on Nitrox (which is why I don't go there any more). I have failed to mark jumps, and have passed at least one T without recognizing it. In each case, my teammates corrected my error. Nothing bad happened. Would it have, had they not been there? Who knows . . .