Why do we believe he’s afloat?
He is young, healthy, very skilled, and diving independent doubles (sidemount). He was capable of making a free ascent from his planned max depth. His risk of a disabling medical event or inability to surface is pretty darn low in my judgement. On the other hand, getting caught in current that he could not detect in time or swim against it is pretty high.
I would be very concerned if he was in a T-shirt instead of a 5mm wetsuit; thankfully not the case. I'm betting that that he is floating, sunburned, kicking himself for putting off that PLB purchase, and heading towards Cuba. Knowing him, he's also upset that he is putting his loved ones through all this. I'm looking forward to his teaching me some of the lessons he is learning.