We’ve been through this a bunch of times. Here we go again.
Chest pain on the golf course may result in death but more likely will result in an ambulance ride to the ER. The same situation 100 feet down is much more likely to result in death. So is it the underlying heart condition or the dive?
We have incomplete numerators for diving fatalities and denominators that are pulled out of thin air. So what can you do? One approach is to take a sport that you have (or can infer) a reasonable numerator and denominator, normalize that to diving numerator and see what the resultant diving denominator tells us.
Let's go back to football for a minute: There were three fatalities directly related to football during the 2005 football season. Two were associated with high school football and one with professional football. In 2005 there were 12 indirect fatalities. Eight were associated with high school football, two with college football, one youth league, and one professional football. For the approximately 1,800,000 football participants in 2005, the rate of direct fatalities was 0.17 per 100,000 participants. To reach that level of risk there would have to be more than 52 million active divers in the U.S. Are there 52 million active divers? No! More like 2.5 to 5 million. So you can see that diving has, more or less, an order of magnitude more risk of death associated with it on a per participant basis.
Consider the numbers a bit. There are 22 player hours per game with about 100 player hours at the field, so each player averages .25 hours per game (more or less) and about 15 practice hours per week. So let’s round down to make football appear more dangerous and say that each player is exposed to the risks of football for about 10 hours per week and 100 hours per season. So for 180 million risk exposure hours there were three fatalities. Carrying this over to diving (with say 80 fatalities that year), to have the same level of risk there would have to have been about five billion diver hours spent underwater (or more than 10 hours underwater for every person in the United States), not likely. Even if we include the indirect fatalities, there would have to be 500 million diver hours or two hours underwater for every man woman and child in the United States, again … not very likely. So I think we can safety conclude that diving is more dangerous than playing football. Exactly how much more dangerous is anyone’s guess.