Post-pandemic comeback? Not yet! The dive industry is still crashing.

[boulderjohn]

Now, why are people dropping out?

This question has been asked for quite some time now.

In the mid 1960s, The Los Angeles County program was so concerned about the extremely high dropout rate after certification that they created a new program intended to pique diver interest. They created a new certification level in which students could be introduced to several different varieties of diving experiences in the hope something would stick. Soon after that, NAUI did the same thing for the same reason. They called it "Advanced Open Water" certification.

I joined ScubaBoard more than 18 years ago, and people have been saying the same thing for all the time I have been participating, and they are always treating it as a new phenomenon.

 

[drrich2]

We often talk about recruiting new divers. But I think we should primarily focus on keeping current divers, especially the new ones. @Beau Holden mentioned in a post above how dive shops in his area don't seem to cater to current divers. Same idea.

I suspect you then need to divide the direct sales industry into trainers and equipment sellers (e.g.: local dive shops) and trip providers (e.g.: day boats, liveaboards), because what profitability of a new diver and a retained diver vary markedly to these different classes.

I got certified in '06, and have been blessed with multiple dive trips and over 550 dives today. My last certification was SDI Solo Diver, back in 2012, IIRC, and I'm not interested in technical or professional courses. I live inland, and am slow to pick up motor skills, so GUE Fundies or similar isn't likely. A shop's not likely to sell me a course. I've got a full set of gear (and gear I don't use anymore). In a given year, I tend to hit the local dive quarry if I don't make it to the ocean...which hasn't happened in years.

I'm a retained diver, but few and sporadic air fills, tank hydro. and viz. services, the rare regulator servicing, and very occasionally a part of some sort (e.g.: BP/W sexbolts, a miflex hose) don't offer a lot of profit margin to a retailer.

We are currently running an InDepth/Scubanomics survey precisely on this, and the preliminary results are stunning. People do not feel ready to dive after receiving a c-card trumpeting they are.

Depending on how you define 'to dive,' they're not. Many people don't live near good ocean shore diving, and navigation and situation awareness diving can take a long time to build to good competence, if it ever happens. So if a similarly trained buddy pair diving alone from a boat without a guide is the standard of being ready to dive, I suspect a very small minority of fresh OW graduates are 'ready to dive.' At one of the more benign entry/exit Bonaire shore dive sites, they might be okay.

Experience counts for a lot. People spend a lot more time on the road before getting a driver's license than OW students spend diving, and driver's get on the road and stay in practice far more often than most new divers dive. I used to watch another diver assemble their gear and had trouble remembering which way to point the tank valve, not because I wasn't taught, but because so much time passed between doing it.

We need to move away from training agencies having such a dominant role in our industry. As Alex Brylske keeps on saying, we need a new paradigm with a focus on diving, not on selling courses.

Are the training agencies preventing someone/something else from doing something needful? If they don't have this dominant role, do you see someone else taking it, or no one?

What does this 'focus on diving' look like that's different from what we have now? PadiTravel, Liveaboard.com, Maduro, Aggressor Fleet and Explorer Ventures send me e-mails promoting dive trips. A number of groups in my region offer dive trips. There's a local dive quarry with an on-site shop.

My experience with retention is that the divers we've trained in NB/T have a ridiculously high retention rate. They also make more purchases of equipment.

Do your students tend to be the random public 'pool' providing most OW students nationally, or do you tend to draw a more select group somehow (e.g.: maybe you have a good rep. with area serious divers and they preferentially refer contacts to you)? Do your instructors do more active social engagement/mentoring with the students? When you say high retention rate, do you just mean they keep diving, or that they maintain active involvement with your shop, dive club, etc...?

 

[Vicko]

The dive centers in Croatia have had 3 of the most successful year in a row and people are scrambling to find enough instructors, dm-s and boat drivers for the next season, yay us.

I joined ScubaBoard more than 18 years ago, and people have been saying the same thing for all the time I have been participating, and they are always treating it as a new phenomenon.

Recently I watched a spearfishing documentary from the 70s. The divers in there were complaining of less fish than 30 years ago, rising prices of gear, training and fuel, using the exact same points that I'm using today.
Gave me a fresh perspective about the good old days that I missed out on.

 

[drrich2]

I joined ScubaBoard more than 18 years ago, and people have been saying the same thing for all the time I have been participating, and they are always treating it as a new phenomenon.

What should the retention rate be? Is recreational scuba diving like sky diving, a bucket list 'once and done' activities we should expect many to try, then more on, or is it like bicycle riding, where one expects (or at least hopes for) a large portion of people taking it up to persist?

I wonder how much focus the L.A. Country program had on training locals for unguided local diving, especially given that California (known for not routinely putting dive guides in the water) had shore diving? These days I suspect a lot of U.S. dive training unofficially trains occasional vacation divers for distant dive trips to Caribbean (and sometimes Key Largo) trips, usually led on reef tours by a guide in benign conditions.

If new divers don't feel ready to dive at the OW level, they have the option to seek further training and more experience. Where is the breakdown that leads to quitting rather than pursuing?

 

[Marie13]

Given I’m new (OW cert dives scheduled in two weeks in FL)….

Here is how my journey to scuba went and where the decisions occurred. I can’t imagine I’m that special even if my mom kept saying I was.

Start…

Scuba diving YouTube videos show up in my suggested feed. I have no idea why. But I clicked on a couple.

I see that I can “get into scuba” fairly cheaply compared to my other hobbies so I start researching PADI…cause PADI is the only training company (at this point I didn’t know I was wrong…it’s just a brand I’ve always known)

After a couple of weeks I’m falling down a rabbit hole on YouTube binging “Diver’s Ready” and “Simply Scuba” (particularly #AskMark).

At this point Im convinced this would be cool so I’m using Google Maps for “scuba” to see who’s around me in driving distance. And I do some website research on the various places around me.

I visit my nearest dive shop during its website posted business hours. It’s difficult to find in the back of an industrial park area. A ragged piece of paper on the door says “by appointment” only and I can see in the window their shop is smaller than my office cube. I strike them off the list for having no “customer service” or business sense. If this was my only local dive shop my hobby would have ended here and I would have decided scuba was “legacy”.

But, I have two other dive shop options, both equal distance. One has an onsite pool and the other uses a local high school. So I opt for the one with the onsite pool.

I show up 1 hour before closing on a Friday…the owner (I didn’t know it at the time) is in the shop by himself and answers every questions I put to him in a friendly, “I don’t mind newbs” attitude. It’s now nearly closing time and I say “sign me up with PADI”.

He asks if my heart is dead set on PADI or not…I say that’s the only one I know…he explains the difference between several agencies and with no hard sell…I go with SSI.

It’s now past closing and he asks if I want to pick out my basic gear. I offer to come back to do that since it’s after closing. He waves it off and he spends another hour explaining gear choices, sizing, try ons and then the sale.

I take the OW class and pool work the following Saturday with one of his instructors. I’m the only student because the other 2 no show…but they run the class anyway. The owner checks on both of us multiple times over the two days and particularly me, making sure I’m happy with the class and the facilities. By now it’s late October and all the OW dive places are closed for the season.

I ask if he can personally recommend a dive shop in Key Largo or abouts so I can do my OW dives during winter…he can not.

…THIS…is where the industry has missed an opportunity for me as a new diver. I had to pick an OW dive ship from 1,000 miles away in a place with 842 options.

My only real option then was to come here and do searches for who this community recommends in Key Largo. Of the several mentioned only one is SSI. I do some website and YouTube research and they look reputable so I send them an email.

Within 24hrs they respond back with enthusiasm and ask me to call if I want to schedule. I call the next day and talk to a very bubbly person who remembers my email. She spends 30min on the phone with me just chit chatting and answering my questions and getting me scheduled. Even though I have my own full set of gear I offer to dive their rentals if they prefer since they don’t know me from Adam. She highly encourages I bring whatever gear I have and dive with that.

So now I anxiously wait.

If you are a dive operator or LDS your customers want…(or at least I do)
- an updated website…last blog post from 2011? Schedule hasn’t updated since 2020? Your business hours wrong?…show you care just a little bit
- answer your damn phone/email within 24 hours….show you care a little bit
- spend the time with the newb…show you care a little bit

Suggestion for Dive Operators…
- find out the LDS your new customer frequents
- reach out to that LDS and see if you can send them free material / posters / adverts
- reach out to that LDS and offer a free dive at your facility/boat for them and their instructors next time they are in the area…the goal being that they will refer to you

Ha! I know where you are. And I know which shop you’re talking about that’s back in the industrial park. Why it’s located where it is? The owner has a brother that owns the business next door. The owner of that shop wishes more people would get further into diving. I’d walk in on my lunch hour (used to work nearby) with sidemount tanks for air fills (they don’t have nitrox) and if other customers were there I’d get the WTF are those tanks for? I’d explain and I’d get the “why would you want to do THAT?”

The shop you go to with the on-site pool offers a bit of tech training. The owner only does warm water diving now, but used to do a lot of Great Lakes wreck diving. I don’t get crossed eyed looks when I talk about my diving. Close to work but O2 fills take days.

I much prefer a shop an hour away. Owner is a CCR diver. Nitrox and O2 on tap. Have to drop tanks off and come back a day or two later, but that’s OK. Will fill my LP tanks to 3000. Will fill helium if he can get it. I’m the only gal tech diver at the shop, but I don’t get hassled for it.

My favorite shop is two hours away in WI, owned by my tech/CCR instructor. You can walk in and get sorb and some CCR bits and pieces. They do the diving I do or want to.

 

[boulderjohn]

I was certified in the 1990s, and I was immediately awed by the wonders of the underwater world. In the next decade I traveled to dive locations around the world, and I simply loved the experiences I had. (Check my profile to get an idea.) I was thrilled by the Great barrier Reef, the soft corals of Fiji, the beauty of the Caribbean reefs, etc.

The last decade has been a different story. I returned to the Great Barrier Reef, and I have to assume that the mostly dead coral I visited there was at the sites the liveaboard operator thought would be best for us. The director of diving for the boat said he thought that in 20 years there would be nothing worth seeing on the entire reef. In the Bahamas I spent days floating over totally dead coral with few fish except for the occasional lionfish. I go to Florida every winter, and the reefs there are close to dead now. A friend joined me there after leading a group trip in St. Croix, and he said the Florida reef, as bad as it was, was far better than what he experienced at St. Croix, with its dead coral and almost no fish. The wrecks I used to enjoy in South Florida are mostly rusted out and collapsed, with only a few new ones added in the decades I have been going there. In Bali I was surrounded by floating garbage. In Palau everyone talked about how degraded the reef was in comparison to only a few years ago.

If I were to start diving now, I find it hard to believe I would become the enthusiastic diver my first experiences led me to become.

 

[boulderjohn]

What should the retention rate be? Is recreational scuba diving like sky diving, a bucket list 'once and done' activities we should expect many to try, then more on, or is it like bicycle riding, where one expects (or at least hopes for) a large portion of people taking it up to persist?

When I taught OW classes, I always started by asking the students why they were interested in scuba. A strong majority said they were getting certified in anticipation of a coming one-time vacation to a tropical location known for its diving.

That is, BTW, how I got started. As I wrote above, the beauty of the dives I experienced changed everything for me.

 

[Beau Holden]

But I believe it is undeniable that the lack of quality in training results in a bunch of new divers never really becoming divers.

I don't disagree with you. However something to debate here, is what is truly driving this lack of quality training.
1. Has the training cost to the consumer increased in the last 20 years and how much?
2. Has the cost to train an OW diver increased is the last 20 years.
3. Has the instructor fees (payment to) increased in the last 20 years?
4. Has the E-learning process truly improved knowledge retention, just made things more convenient, given enough face time with the instructor?
5. Has the consumer come to expect more for less and the industry complied with decreasing quality and the thought of increasing quantity?
6. Does the consumer have the income now as compared to 20 years ago to spend on diving?

We need to move away from training agencies having such a dominant role in our industry.

I totally agree. However what has allowed them to get this dominant role?

If I spend more time with my student divers in the pool and do more dives with them, the training agency gets nothing.

So true. The more time spent with students, new and experienced divers, ultimately lead to more profit for the dive center & instructor (greater rewards.) We have gotten way to used to instant gratification instead to long term rewards.

As Alex Brylske keeps on saying, we need a new paradigm with a focus on diving, not on selling courses.

Spending more time with existing divers and catering to them and the sport of diving. The courses will come

does anyone think the training agencies would be willing to accept a sudden decline of revenue prior to the returns of higher quality training? (meaning more con ed).

The training agency would have to accept what I give them. It's not their revenue I would concerned about, it is my revenue. They are not going to kick me out because of that. The agency is not the end all / cure all. It's the dive center and instructor.

 

[johndiver999]

I believe you, I just don't see it personally.

There may be less people going through open water courses, but I haven't seen a shortage of those divers wanting to go diving locally.

My first year running our new boat was completely booked. The 2023 season is completely booked and has been since August of this year. 2024, already has multiple trips booked. 2025 has two trips already booked.

Another local boat is in the same place, next season is booked and some of the next.

The charter boat in Isle Royale has a five year waiting list to get on his boat.

These are just boats local to me that I know personally.

One (pessimistic) way to look at the situation you describe is that it appears there is definite "room" in the market for another boat. If people were optimistic, they would bring another boat to compete with you, yet (apparently) nobody sees a viable economic incentive there. A good position to be in (for you).

 

[VikingDives]

Do your students tend to be the random public 'pool' providing most OW students nationally, or do you tend to draw a more select group somehow (e.g.: maybe you have a good rep. with area serious divers and they preferentially refer contacts to you)? Do your instructors do more active social engagement/mentoring with the students? When you say high retention rate, do you just mean they keep diving, or that they maintain active involvement with your shop, dive club, etc...?

All good questions and all hard to answer with certainty, but I know I have some very good and active divers who recommend my shop and bring me new clients fairly regularly. I also know that by charging more for a course, I'm keeping my classes smaller and I'm driving away the bargain hunters.

Retention rate is customers retained over time. For example, when I worked for someone else's shop, I knew that 90% of the people I trained would never come back. They took their open water class, and were never seen again. That shop had a retention rate of 10%.

In my shop now, of the customers that we've trained, we've had almost everyone come back either to buy equipment, or to take training, or both.

I'd love to know what the magic ingredient is, but short of buying out an existing shop, I don't see how I'd be able to design an experiment to determine what the magic sauce is...