Post-pandemic comeback? Not yet! The dive industry is still crashing.

[wetb4igetinthewater]

Question(s):

(A) Do people believe that low quality training is one cause of the gradual decline of the industry?

(B) If yes, does anyone think the training agencies would be willing to accept a sudden decline of revenue prior to the returns of higher quality training? (meaning more con ed). The higher quality instruction shops in my area have much higher retention rates than the lower quality instruction ones.

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

Suggestion for Dive Operators…
- find out the LDS your new customer frequents
- reach out to that LDS and see if you can send them free material / posters / adverts
- reach out to that LDS and offer a free dive at your facility/boat for them and their instructors next time they are in the area…the goal being that they will refer to you

I think that's a little difficult as people come from all over.

However, if I had a dive shop and a student wanted to do their checkout dives somewhere warm, I'd do the research for them, as I know what to ask to find one in their area that is compatible with my philosophy of diving. I won't just send someone to a dive shop from the same agency, but a dive shop from the same agency witha similar teaching philosophy (neutrally buoyant and trimmed start to finish).

 

[wetb4igetinthewater]

That'd be fun!!!

That being said, I am not sure that the visibility of scuba diving is such an issue. Every time we discuss the fact that scuba diving participation is shrinking, we blame the lack of Cousteau or Sea Hunt on TV.

Yet, there are plenty of outdoor activities booming without that type of coverage. "Prime Time TV" doesn't have as much power as it used to.

Besides, I see scuba diving everywhere. Almost every time I see an ad for a honeymoon trip, there's scuba diving and snorkeling in it for some reason. It's pretty visible in tourist destinations. It's in movies. It's being seen. And Avatar 2 just came out...

One step in marketing a product/service is raising awareness of its existence. A Business of Diving Institute survey in 2021 showed that 96.4% of adult Americans of all ages knew what scuba diving is. It's not a mystery.

Of course, more visibility & a few scuba diving heroes would be fantastic! But blaming it on a lack of Cousteau & Sea Hunt sounds to me a bit like we are putting our heads in the sand. It's up to us to figure out what today's consumers want and change our products/services to suit them. People will not change to fit in our 1980 business model. And the fast-food/cheap quality training we've been churning since then doesn't work, so let's stop doubling down on it!

And... Happy Holidays!

How about a "Sea Hunt- Greek underwater archaeology unit"? Greek authorities wrestle underwater looters to the death!!

 

[Beau Holden]

So instead of endlessly listing reasons why it is like that and why it has been like that for decades (while we simultaneously have seen the industry slowly shrinking over the same period of time), I prefer to think of solutions

To put it simply....don't be part of the problem, be part of the solution.

From what I have experienced as I have returned to diving after moving back south, is the LDSs in this area and I believe it to be true in other areas....they truly don't know how to interact experienced divers. The LDS I decided to use in New Orleans (60 miles from where I live), listed on there web site they were a Dive Rite and Halcyon dealer. So down there I go, needing seals for my dry suit, reg service parts, new lights and other various gear. Tank visuals and hydros. Come to find out, they had lost their status with Dive Rite, due to lack of sells and had I to sort of teach them about dry suit seals. Now mind you, I could have went online and got everything I wanted as for as gear. But I wanted to find a shop I could be a part of and support. Well I made my list and they got their Dive Rite status reinstated and I got my gear and yes I overpaid for seals and glue. They still would not get me the reg service kits and had to go to Dive Gear Express for them. However, I didn't want to teach them about dry suit zippers, so I did go online and get that. This shop does not seem to have a problem getting students, but it seems to stop there. The industry (LDS's) need to learn how to network for experience divers needing gear and more advanced training. The only advanced training my LDS advertises is the SSI AN/DP.

One of the ways, in my opinion, to help, educate and stimulate is experienced/advanced/tech divers dropping all ego and help the LDS's just with their presence and the LDS doing the same thing and welcome the experienced/advance/ tech divers, not trying to up sale them and just hang out. Of two other shops I went to, because I was not looking for open water training and just looking to hang out, talk some diving and buy a little gear, they didn't have time for me. The one I chose the one in New Orleans at least I felt welcome to be in their shop.

I could go on and on with this. I owned a a dive shop in Fort Wayne and done a live scuba radio program for a while, before divorce and some other life events go on the way and the cut throat competition in the area, that just did not have to be. The clicks in diving, need (must) go away and understand we are in this all together.

 

[Tracy]

In the 3rd quarter of this year, the number of entry-level scuba diving certifications issued to Americans is down from last year (-4.8%) and down from pre-pandemic levels (-9.8%). So far, there is no “post-pandemic comeback” for the dive industry. Instead, we are simply “back on the declining slope” we were on before COVID-19.

What say you?

I believe you, I just don't see it personally.

There may be less people going through open water courses, but I haven't seen a shortage of those divers wanting to go diving locally.

My first year running our new boat was completely booked. The 2023 season is completely booked and has been since August of this year. 2024, already has multiple trips booked. 2025 has two trips already booked.

Another local boat is in the same place, next season is booked and some of the next.

The charter boat in Isle Royale has a five year waiting list to get on his boat.

These are just boats local to me that I know personally.

 

[Darcy Kieran]

Given I’m new (OW cert dives scheduled in two weeks in FL)….

Thanks for sharing your experience! Very interesting & valuable!

Happy Holidays!

 

[Darcy Kieran]

I believe you, I just don't see it personally.

There may be less people going through open water courses, but I haven't seen a shortage of those divers wanting to go diving locally.

Correct! The pandemic gave a boost to local diving - "local" in a broad sense. Since a lot of typical dive destination countries had their border closed (and a bunch of other reasons like the uncertainty that the trip would really happen and if it was canceled, if you would get a refund, etc.), we've seen a boost to diving within the USA. Florida, for instance, had stellar years during the pandemic.

Good for you! Great to hear! Happy Holidays!

 

[Darcy Kieran]

Question(s):

(A) Do people believe that low quality training is one cause of the gradual decline of the industry?

(B) If yes, does anyone think the training agencies would be willing to accept a sudden decline of revenue prior to the returns of higher quality training? (meaning more con ed). The higher quality instruction shops in my area have much higher retention rates than the lower quality instruction ones.

Those are 2 loaded questions - a bit much on Christmas eve, maybe, but here's a take on it.

We train a bunch of new divers every year. About 150K Americans become newly certified divers every year (pre-pandemic).

But the participation rate steadily drops. For instance, pre-pandemic, 237K fewer Americans were participating in scuba diving (having done at least one dive in the prior 12 months) in 2017 than in 2016.

So, we actually lost close to 400K participants.

We often talk about recruiting new divers. But I think we should primarily focus on keeping current divers, especially the new ones. @Beau Holden mentioned in a post above how dive shops in his area don't seem to cater to current divers. Same idea.

Now, why are people dropping out? There are as many reasons as there are people dropping out. For sure, there are a bunch of baby boomers hanging up their fins or signing out of this planet. But I believe it is undeniable that the lack of quality in training results in a bunch of new divers never really becoming divers.

We are currently running an InDepth/Scubanomics survey precisely on this, and the preliminary results are stunning. People do not feel ready to dive after receiving a c-card trumpeting they are. So, yes, I believe there is a correlation between the lack of quality (not just in training but in customer service and general experience) and the decline of scuba diving while so many other outdoor activities are booming. It's hard to prove because drop-out divers are hard to survey.

As for the training agencies... They make the bulk of their money with new divers, and so do many dive gear manufacturers. If I spend more time with my student divers in the pool and do more dives with them, the training agency gets nothing. If I push these ones out and start a new group, the training agency gets its profits.

And it's the same with new instructors, for that matter. I was watching PADI videos last night for my online Course Director update, and they had a graph showing that new instructors are productive in the first 3 years, and after that, not much. The message was that we needed to train more instructors. Well, to me, the message was that we need to improve the economics of being a dive instructor so that they are not all just flares.

We have short-lived divers and short-lived instructors.

We need to move away from training agencies having such a dominant role in our industry. As Alex Brylske keeps on saying, we need a new paradigm with a focus on diving, not on selling courses.

Happy Holidays! Dive safe!

P.S.: If you want to take part in that survey, here it is: Survey: Quality of Entry-Level Scuba Diving Experiences

 

[Darcy Kieran]

How about a "Sea Hunt- Greek underwater archaeology unit"? Greek authorities wrestle underwater looters to the death!!

You know... With a hundred different streaming services nowadays (it's out of control), maybe one of them could!!!

 

[VikingDives]

Question(s):

(A) Do people believe that low quality training is one cause of the gradual decline of the industry?

(B) If yes, does anyone think the training agencies would be willing to accept a sudden decline of revenue prior to the returns of higher quality training? (meaning more con ed). The higher quality instruction shops in my area have much higher retention rates than the lower quality instruction ones.

My experience with retention is that the divers we've trained in NB/T have a ridiculously high retention rate. They also make more purchases of equipment.

Some of that may be due to other factors, so I can't say that the equipment/retention would scale to other shops, but it would be an interesting experiment to convert a shop from the traditional model and see if it made a difference.